By Dan Rodgers
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I'm a contributing writer on an up-and-coming sports media site, and the one I'm with is NYSportsNut.com.
I finally contributed another piece now that I've actually moved to Pennsylvania and the craziness is starting to subside a bit.
The Yankees made a move to get Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. They didn't give up much and here's the link to my article.
Yankees Acquire 10-time All-Star Ichiro
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By Dan Rodgers
We're approximately 10 games into the Major League Baseball season and we have already seen a few surprising teams stand out. Below you'll find my predictions for final standings. I'm not doing playoff predictions just yet, but I'll include potential MVP/Cy Young candidates.
AL East
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Likely MVP candidates (not in any order):
AL - 2B Robinson Cano, NYY; CF Curtis Granderson, NYY; 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET
NL - CF Matt Kemp, LAD; RF Justin Upton, ARI; LF Ryan Braun, MIL
Dark Horse candidates:
AL - CF Josh Hamilton, TEX; 3B Evan Longoria, TAM
NL - 3B David Wright, NYM; SP Roy Halladay, PHI
Check back later for Cy Young candidates...
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By Dan Rodgers
I'll still be posting here, but I am also contributing to a new site: NY Sports Nut.
They are an up-and-coming sports media company and also have sites for other cities and are developing more.
Check out my first article, Knicks Can Win Without Lin.
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By Dan Rodgers
We are sitting at halftime of the Kentucky vs. Kansas NCAA national championship game. Kentucky completely dominated the first half, primarily because of their efficient shooting (53.3%); however, somehow Kansas was only down by 14.
I still believe that Kansas can come back. They play tough defense and love to pound the ball inside. The Wildcats probably won't shoot with such efficiency for the rest of the game, and Kansas will look to get a few Kentucky players into foul trouble.
Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey will be key in the second half. They will need to control the paint, both offensively and defensively. Anthony Davis is having an awful game offensively, going 0-8 thus far. This is not a very good showing for him considering this is his last game before the draft.
Kansas has just hit a three and then an and-one... so this is going to be their last chance at a final push. They are down nine with just over four minutes to go... ENJOY!
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By Dan Rodgers
I want to give a quick opinion on a few of the more notable trades that were pulled off in the NBA:
Wizards get: Nene, Brian Cook, future 2nd rounder
Clippers get: Nick Young
Nuggets get: JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf
This trade puzzled me because I'm not quite sure what the Wiz had in mind. They gave LA a young scorer to help replace Billups. They helped the Nuggets get younger and more athletic at the forward/center position. The Wizards got a quality veteran center, but they aren't in a win-now mode. Good move for LA/Denver, we will have to wait and see for Washington.
The Lakers situation is complicated because they pulled one trade to acquire Ramon Sessions and one to get rid of Derek Fisher. The Lakers didn't give up much in the trades talent-wise, but they did give up lottery protected first round picks. Still, Fisher is old and was a defensive liability. Sessions gives them more athleticism on both ends of the floor.
Warriors get: Andrew Bogut, Stephen Jackson
Bucks get: Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown, Ekpe Udoh
If Bogut can stay healthy, the Warriors will greatly benefit from this deal. They have a ton of scorers and could afford to deal Ellis. Bogut will solidify the defense in the paint and allow David Lee to play the four all the time. The Bucks dealt their injury-prone center for a scorer to complement Brandon Jennings. I think the deal is much safer for the Bucks but fairly even all-around.
Rockets get: Marcus Camby
Blazers get: Hasheem Thabeet, Johnny Flynn, 2012 second round pick
This deal presents incredible upside for the Blazers. They traded a 38-year-old center for a 25-year-old center and a 23-year-old guard, both of whom showed flashes of greatness in college. Thabeet hasn't been too much of an opportunity so he isn't a bust yet. Flynn averaged over 13 ppg and 4 apg as a rookie and hasn't been given a fair chance since then. Not to mention, who knows about the draft pick. Houston is clearly in a win-now mode, while Portland probably thinks they can win now and get younger at the same time. I think Houston might have been trade-raped... but only time will tell.
Picks:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers -9 = The 76ers get Andre Iguodala back tonight and Spencer Hawes is returning to form since returning from injury. The Cavs aren't a very good team and have lost three in a row. Starting center Anderson Varejao is still out with an injury and Jamison will be playing hurt. Philly hasn't been as good since their hot start, and needs to get these important home wins over bad teams as they are in a tight division race with the Celtics. I think Philly blows out the Cavs tonight as the Sixers have the youth to run with the Cavs and the experience to outlast them and pull away.
Minnesota Timber Wolves @ Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 = The Grizz have beaten the Wolves at home nine out of the last 10 times, including six in a row. Memphis lost the first three game of their road trip before posting an impressive win at the Lakers. They should carry that momentum back home as Minnesota will be without their starting center Pekovic and likely J.J. Barea as well. They will also obviously be without Ricky Rubio who is out for the season with a torn ACL. I think that Memphis found their stroke against LA and should go to work offensively against a Minnesota team that has allowed at least 100 points in four out of their last five games.
Enjoy the NIT games as well...
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By Dan Rodgers
The NCAA has been thoroughly entertaining thus far. Most of the games have been competitive and that is what most people want. However, I have a bracket, and even though my champion has been long gone, I can still tie for first place. If you go back and look at my bracket, I have Missouri beating Louisville in the Elite 8. If only I had chosen Louisville instead...haha.
I was working all day yesterday, so I didn't have time to post my picks, but I did like Louisville to win outright, and I already have Ohio State in my Final Four so clearly I liked them as well. Today we had Kentucky do work against Baylor, so I have another Final Four team correct. UNC is the other team (I have them in the championship), and they are tied with Kansas at halftime.
Anyway, on to the NBA...
Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks -1 = This is an interesting game. Utah is not a good road team and Atlanta is a good team even though they haven't been playing great. They are at home and there is no reason they shouldn't win outright. The Hawks have won three in a row and just seem to do enough to win the game. Meanwhile, even with wins in their last two road games, Utah is a terrible 7-16 on the road this season. CORRECT - it took four overtimes to get it done, but the Hawks did as expected.
Memphis Grizzlies @ L.A. Lakers -6.5 = The Lakers are 20-3 at home this season. The Lakers have won seven of their last 10. Kobe Bryant is the best scorer in the NBA (28.5 ppg). The Grizzlies have lost three in a row. The Grizzlies are 9-14 on the road this season. The Grizzlies lost last night in the same building to the Clippers by 16. These are all of the statistics I have come up with to enforce my decision of picking the Lakers tonight. INCORRECT - The Lakers played crap defense the entire night and Kobe got benched even though he had a solid shooting night.
Enjoy tonight's games. The Heat play in Oklahoma City tonight and it should be a great game.
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By Dan Rodgers
Well, last night was unfortunate. Tonight, I'm not feeling the Sweet 16 match-ups so much as a few NBA games. I'm just going to enjoy March Madness and leave the games tonight alone.
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers -3.5 = This spread is WAY off. The Pacers were down over 20 points last night in Washington and fought back for the outright win. They come back home tonight and face a Suns team that isn't playing poorly but has lost two straight and struggles on the road. The Pacers should rebound from their off-night yesterday and put together a complete game that should lead to them scoring well over 100 points. Go big on Indiana tonight. INCORRECT - Apparently, Indiana didn't feel like playing defense last night. They should be embarrassed by that loss and giving up those points to a far inferior team.
Minnesota Timber Wolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 = The T-wolves haven't been playing very good defense, and I fully expect the Thunder to take advantage of that. Oklahoma City has scored over 100 points in four of their last five games while Minnesota has given up over 110 in three of their last five. This is just a game between two teams where one team is clearly the better team. I don't see any way Minnesota has the offense to keep up with an Oklahoma City team that tries to play defense. INCORRECT - Basically the same thing as written above, but the Thunder were able to win. Minnesota scored 140 points (in double OT, 116 in regulation). Kevin Love scored 51 points, including seven threes. He is clearly their best player and the one player OKC should have keyed in on him.
The last is another 8-point sweetheart teaser:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic -1 = Once again we have the Cavs on the road against a team that is better than them. This is the same scenario and I wouldn't be surprised if Orlando covered the original nine, but we will play it safe and take them to one. CORRECT
Miami Heat -.5 @ Detroit Pistons = I got the Pistons game wrong the other night and they threw everything they had at Denver. Now they come home, most likely completely deflated because they lost at the end to the Nuggets. Miami will probably win be 20, but once again we will play it safe and make it so they only have to win. CORRECT
New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks +1 = The Hawks came through the other night when we needed them to so we will go with them again. The Nets struggle on the road, and Atlanta can even lose this game by one. The Hawks need to get their act together and play consistently if they want to put up a fight in the playoffs. CORRECT
The Knicks go into Toronto tonight looking to go 6-0 under interim head coach Mike Woodson. I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks took care of business again tonight because they are clearly a more talented team than the Raptors. Hopefully they can keep this good defensive play going and get some confidence going into the playoffs. INCORRECT - Of course, the one night I write about the Knicks they get destroyed...
Enjoy the Sweet 16 and the NBA action tonight. I've got Baylor, UNC, Kentucky and Kansas advancing in my bracket.
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By Dan Rodgers
UPDATE: Not a very sweet night thus far. Look below for last second thoughts on each game.
Even though countless people had their brackets busted in the round of 64 with the losses of Missouri (my champion) and Duke, they might not be eliminated from the pools. I know that in my pool I can still tie for first if everything goes perfectly. So tonight could be the final make or break for your bracket, especially if you picked a No. 1 seed to go down tonight. My picks below:
(4) Wisconsin vs. (1) Syracuse -3 = I don't know about you but Syracuse showed me a lot in their last game. They struggled mightily in their match-up with UNC-A, but the Orange really responded with a convincing win over Kansas State. I thought KSU was going to really give Syracuse all they could handle, and while it was a one-point game at the half, Syracuse pulled away in the second half. KSU did what I expected in dominating the boards and especially the offensive glass (22-8 advantage); however, Syracuse shot very efficiently and played solid defense holding the Wildcats to just over 31% shooting. I think that this will be more of a scorefest than people probably think. I think people (me) underestimated the talent on Syracuse and maybe they can still make a deep run without Fab Melo. INCORRECT - The Orange played a solid game against a good defensive team. However, they got outscored in the second half after having a 6-point halftime lead. Wisconsin made 14 threes! That is unbelievable. They shot almost 10% better from three than overall. Not to mention, Syracuse missed the front end of a 1-and-1 at the end that could have led to a push.
(4) Louisville +5.5 vs. (1) Michigan State = This should be an excellent game. For my bracket, this is the most important game of the night. I am one of the few people in my pool who has the Cardinals over the Spartans. I can't help but be reminded of the run UConn made in last year's tournament when I think of Louisville. Obviously, they both came out of the Big East. Louisville is playing great defense, they've held their first two opponents to under 40% shooting and forced double-digit turnovers. The Billikens gave the Spartans all they could handle and they had a poor shooting night. If Louisville can be efficient and play their usually tough defense, I don't see any reason why the Cardinals can't win this game outright. CORRECT - well, Louisville won outright just like I needed them to for my pool. This game was just about the only positive for me the whole night.
(6) Cincinnati +7.5 vs. (2) Ohio State = I do have OSU winning this game outright, but I can't believe how high this line is. Cincy played extremely well and pulled the upset last week against a very tough Florida State team. Given the tough defense that the Bearcats have been playing (haven't given up 60 points or more in their last three games), it should be a good match-up with a Buckeyes squad that averages 75 points-per-game. Cincinnati's Yancy Gates should be able to match-up with Sullinger in the paint, and I fully expect Cincy to key in on Buford. If they want a shot in this game, they will need to make sure they don't get killed by the three-pointer. INCORRECT - After Cincy took a four-point lead, I didn't think there was any way they would get outscored by more than 12 the rest of the way. They had all of the momentum, but they couldn't stop fouling and turning the ball over. What a disaster/terrible defensive effort...
(7) Florida vs. (3) Marquette -2 = The reason I liked Missouri to make it out of their bracket is because of their likely match-ups. They would have faced these teams. Florida is very similar to Missouri and Marquette likes to play to their opponent. Luckily for the Golden Eagles, Florida doesn't have many experienced big men. When Marquette faced BYU it was a scorefest, and they adjusted to a more defensive game when they played Murray State. I fully expect this to be a high scoring game, and I just think Marquette has more experience and talent. INCORRECT - The Golden Eagles shot under 30% from three and 30% from the field. Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom both had 5-15 shooting nights, and you can't expect to win when both of your top players struggle.
This should be an excellent night of games so try to enjoy it. This is clearly where everyone's attention will be, and there isn't much I like in the NBA tonight anyway. Hope your bracket stays intact.
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By Dan Rodgers
There are a few NBA games going on tonight that I've taken an interest in. Hopefully, you stopped by yesterday and saw both of my winners.
Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets -8.5 = One thing I've learned is that home teams tend to cover a lot more than road teams. In this case, we've got a good team playing at home against a bad team. Not to mention the Nuggets are getting Wilson Chandler back, and he should provide a spark for the team. You all should know how much I think the Pistons suck, and even though they aren't as bad as Washington, Charlotte and New Orleans, I don't see them keeping it close. INCORRECT - sorry I can't predict Ben Gordon dropping 45 points and shooting 9/9 from three.
I'm going to shoot for another sweetheart 8-point teaser:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks +.5 = There is no reason for the Hawks to lose at home to the Cavs. They are clearly the better team and this game just fit perfectly in the sweetheart. CORRECT
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic -.5 = This game fits in perfectly as well. The Suns just gave everything they had last night to beat the Heat and somehow blew the lead. The Magic should come out looking to have a good offensive game since they got embarrassed last night and they should take care of business tonight at home. CORRECT
Chicago Bulls +.5 @ Toronto Raptors = This is another game that just fit perfectly. The Bulls are the far superior team and there is no reason for them to not beat up on a weak Toronto team. CORRECT
Good luck tonight everyone.
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By Dan Rodgers
The Jets have officially traded for former Florida Gators savior Tim Tebow. I'm hearing that the Jets gave up a 2012 fourth and sixth round pick for Tim Tebow and a 2012 seventh round pick.
This move initially made zero sense to me. The Jets just gave Mark Sanchez a three-year extension to show their faith in him as the starting QB. Bringing in Tebow could have been done because the Jets want Sanchez to feel more pressure to perform instead of coasting because Mark Brunell was the second string QB. However, WR Jeremy Kerley played well last season as a rookie Wildcat QB.
Tebow needs to understand that he is not the starting QB of the New York Jets. He is a proven winner and leader, but he needs to understand this is Sanchez's team. One issue with this move is the impact it will have on the locker room. Sanchez is in the process of becoming the leader and needs to demand the respect of the team, and Tebow joining the team might hinder that process and cause Sanchez to lose some of the team that likes Tebow.
As I've said in the past, I do not like Tebow. I think he is a phenomenal athlete, leader and winner, but I think he is an absolutely terrible NFL QB. My opinion on this trade will be determined by how the Jets use Tebow during the season. If they want him to be a change-of-pace Wildcat QB, or they change him to be an H-back/tight end, I would be OK with the trade. I said before he was drafted that Tebow should be switched to another position to fully utilize his abilities and hopefully the Jets do that.
The biggest reason I dislike the trade right now is because of the issues the media will bring throughout the season. If Sanchez gets hurt, or struggles early in the season, the media and all of Tebow's followers will be calling for him to start like they did in Denver. The media could be the primary reason that this trade doesn't work out.
If Sanchez can live up to the hype and respond to the pressure by winning and the Jets use Tebow correctly, this COULD work out OK. But I have my doubts...
Not to mention, in my opinion Sean Payton getting suspended for the entire season, among the other punishments that the Saints got, is way bigger news than Tebow to the Jets.
Only time will tell if this trade isn't a bust, but all I know is that I wish the Jets were on HBO's Hard Knocks this summer.
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By Dan Rodgers
Sorry for not posting for a few days, I was out of town... hopefully you did OK without me. Since the NCAA tournament is only Thursday through Sunday, the in between days are slow. Below you'll find my thoughts on a few games tonight.
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers -3.5 = This game puzzles me. Lob City is coming off a game in which they barely beat the Pistons in overtime, and their offense is struggling mightily. The Pacers had back-to-back losses to the apparently surging Knicks, but they beat Philly before that. They aren't struggling to score point and shouldn't have any issue against this Clippers squad. Indiana matches up well as they have bigs inside and capable shooters on the outside; however, LA does have Chris Paul and that could pose problems if the Pacers match him against Darren Collison. I still think the Pacers have no problem and win this one big. CORRECT - we coasted to an easy victory in this one...
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets +3 = This is another very confusing line. The Rockets are a very good home team, while the Lakers have really struggled on the road this season, especially in comparison to the past. The Rockets have lost two in a row, but both were on the road. The Lakers had won five in a row before a home letdown to the Jazz. While they haven't had issues scoring, I think that Houston's home-court advantage will be enough to cover and possibly win outright. CORRECT - the Rockets dominated the fourth quarter and were able to pull out the win.
Best of luck. Expect posts in the coming days regarding my thoughts about the NBA trades that went down and my take on the Peyton Manning situation in Denver.
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By Dan Rodgers
Wow, that Florida State game was ridiculous. I'm definitely thankful for the Creighton comeback, and outright victory. On to the late games...
(9) Saint Louis vs. (8) Memphis -2.5 = I think the Tigers are the most under-seeded team in the NCAA tournament. They are extremely talented, they ran through their conference tournament destroying everyone and they've won their last six in a row by double digits. Saint Louis has had a nice season in the A-10, but I just don't see them keeping up with the Tigers' efficient offense. INCORRECT
(10) Xavier vs. (7) Notre Dame -2 = These teams have similar records but I don't know why the spread is so little. The Irish were the first team to knock off then undefeated Syracuse, and they play in the toughest conference in the country (Big East). Xavier has had a solid season and could definitely win this game, but I just think that Notre Dame is the better squad and should show that tonight. INCORRECT
(15) Detroit vs. (2) Kansas -13.5 = I've been staying away from the higher seeded teams so far because I haven't been able to get a solid read on any of them. A ton of underdogs have been covering so I guess that's a good thing. However, Kansas is playing well even though they didn't win their conference tournament. Detroit is flying high after winning their tournament but they just aren't a very good team. I see them being completely dominated in every aspect of the game, and Kansas will look to assert themselves as a team that has come to play. CORRECT
There are no NBA games I'm crazy about tonight, but the Orlando Magic -11.5 did catch my eye. < CORRECT - I'm unsure when I'll be able to post tomorrow as I have a family function. Enjoy the rest of the first round and the start to the second round.
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- By Dan Rodgers
Well, my bracket isn't anywhere near busted, but it is no longer perfect. I am tied for first in my most important bracket, having gone 14/16 yesterday. The two I had incorrect were UConn/Iowa State (8/9 match-up) and Colorado/UNLV (6/11 match-up). I'm not too disappointed because I haven't lost a Sweet 16 team, but I definitely thought that UConn would have at least shown up and UNLV would feel like they had something to prove.
Hopefully you listened to my Murray State, Gonzaga and Utah Jazz picks. Well, on to today, the final day of first round games.
The first game of the day that I like is the first game of the day -
(11) Texas vs. (6) Cincinnati -3 = I don't think Texas should have earned an at-large bid so I definitely can't pick them here. Cincinnati plays in the best conference in college basketball (Big East), and they beat Georgetown and Syracuse in the conference tournament before losing to Louisville in the championship game. Cincy plays good defense led by Yancy Gates. Two out of the three tournament teams that Texas beat were in conference (Iowa State/Kansas State), and while they hung around in some games, defense isn't exactly a strong point in the Big 12. I think Cincy pulls away and could take this one by double digits. CORRECT
(10) Virginia vs. (7) Florida -3 = This game seems to be a tale between polar opposites. Florida shoots the three very well and scores a ton. Virginia's offense isn't anywhere near as good but they play excellent defense. I think Virginia got a little bit screwed with their draw because I just don't think they can contain Florida's offense. Since the Gators are more concerned with scoring than stopping their opponent, if UVA can score, the game should at least be interesting. I think Florida advances to most likely play Missouri next round. CORRECT
(14) St. Bonaventure vs. (3) Florida State -6 = The Bonnies have the A-10 player of the years, Andrew Nicholson, on their squad but I doubt that will be enough. This is my favorite game of the early set. There is no way this line would only be six if these two teams faced off in the regular season. It appears that a lot of these lines have been a bit low and that is probably because of the "Madness" in March Madness. The Seminoles are among the hottest teams in the tournament, they're coming off their first ever ACC championship and a season in which they beat Duke and UNC twice. There is no way St. Bonaventure, a team that had to win the A-10 tournament to make it to the dance, will be able to hang with Florida State. INCORRECT - An extremely sloppy game for the Seminoles. The Bonnies shot 50% from 3-point range and the 'Noles turned it over 11 times and got out-rebounded. I'm thankful they won because of my bracket, but this game never should have been close. Florida State even pulled ahead by eight, but 3 threes in a minute and fifteen seconds and 11 points in under two minutes is unacceptable to give up when you pride yourself on being a defensive team.
I'll be back later to post my thoughts on a few late games.
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By Dan Rodgers
Well, I'm perfect thus far with my bracket. UNC-A made it interesting against Syracuse, but the Orange came out on top. Murray State absolutely owned Colorado State as I predicted. There is nothing tonight that I like as much as I liked Murray State.
Kansas State/Southern Miss is the only game that you could have gotten wrong. The other games have included relatively high enough seeds so that you shouldn't have gotten any wrong.
Long Beach State vs. New Mexico is the game to watch right now. LBSU is up by two with a few minutes left. There is usually a 5/12 upset so this could be it. New Mexico separated themselves with some free throws at the end and won by seven.
I think Gonzaga should beat West Virginia and since that spread is only Gonzaga by one point, you aren't really risking much besides picking the Zags to win straight up. CORRECT. There should be some great games the rest of the night, so if I were you, I would just sit back and enjoy them.
However, when it comes to the NBA there is one game I like.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz -2.5 = The Jazz are 15-6 at home this season, and even though Minnesota is a solid road team, I don't think they can overcome Utah at home. Utah knows they need to stay solid and get some wins if they want to make the playoffs so they should take care of business at home like most teams. CORRECT
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By Dan Rodgers
OK, finally these ridiculous play-in games are over. USF made a statement tonight and I'm sure a ton of people are erasing Temple and filling in USF in that 5/12 match-up.
First off, I am in a few bracket pools. I am in one with my fraternity, I am in one with a bunch of old friends and I'm in one big money one. With all of the information flying around, everyone has been changing their bracket like crazy since the games were announced on Selection Sunday.
I can't decide whether or not to go crazy and pick three different champions in each one or to hope on being right with my gut and picking a similar bracket in each one so if I'm right I bring home the bank. I decided that I'm going to have similar but not exactly the same schools in the Final Four and the same champion over different schools.
I am very "high" on Mizzou. I think they got robbed from a No. 1 seed and even though it appears they will have among the toughest of roads to the championship, I think they are hot enough and talented enough to get there. They play four guards so they are usually undersized compared to their opposition; however, their guards are good rebounders and very efficient shooters. They also are capable of driving and make things happen in the lane.
The main problem with bracket pools is, most likely someone has one very similar to yours. That's why the early rounds are so important. Predicting the one mid-to-low seed that makes a run could be the difference in your bracket. If you are unsure of a game, it most likely won't hurt you too badly as long as no matter who you choose would be losing next round.
I think Kentucky is the obvious and safe pick, which is why you would have to predict the Final Four and championship and champion exactly correct for a chance to win if you have Kentucky. The more common your champion, the more important the early games become. My pool has 50 members, and I'm hoping that no more than 5-8 have Missouri as their champion. I will be able to see tomorrow what the actual numbers are and can then tell you how I feel about it.
Why I think the No. 1 seeds will/could go down early...
Syracuse is now without their starting 7-footer Fab Melo. He is their main rebounder and they struggle to rebound without him as was evident during his absence earlier this season. They won't have a problem in the first round as No. 1 seeds have never lost, but Kansas State (their second-round opponent in my bracket) is a very good offensive rebounding team. I think K State could pull the huge upset, but if they don't then I highly doubt 'Cuse makes it much further than the Sweet Sixteen.
Michigan State is playing fairly well, but they have shown signs of inconsistency this season. They have a very tough road and I think might have drawn the toughest match-up of round two. Memphis is extremely hot and shooting lights out. I honestly believe they are one of the top 10 most talented teams in the tournament. They won 14 of their final 16 games, including the Conference USA championship. I'm not quite sure they can upset Michigan State but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. However, I think Michigan State's bracket is the toughest. They have Missouri as their two seed, Marquette as their three, the ever-so-hot Big East champion Louisville Cardinals as their four and we already know about Memphis. I just don't think the Spartans can survive all of those tests.
Kentucky is the clear favorite to win it all. I have them over Baylor in the Elite Eight, but I think the Bears could pull the upset... and I'll be rooting for them. I'm playing it safe with this one because I might as well get the points if the Wildcats win, but I benefit so much more if they lose because so many people will take them.
I am becoming more and more convinced with how talented UNC is and I have adjusted my bracket accordingly. I think they are a very complete team with a talented inside game coming from Tyler Zeller and of course the highly-touted Harrison Barnes. As long as they can play some defense (see Florida State games), they should make their way to the Elite Eight with relative ease as the Midwest portion seems to be the weakest quarter of the bracket.
A few teams to look out for...
The Midwest is just pathetic and it would be amazing if it wasn't Kansas or UNC coming out of that quarter.
I'm going to try to figure out how to post a photo or link to my bracket on here. So expect that sometime tomorrow. The games tip-off at 12:15 p.m. so make sure everything is done and brackets are ready to go way before that so you're not sweating to beat the clock.
Enjoy the first day of games and I'm sure I'll be back during the day to check in. A quick note, my favorite early play is Murray State -5 against Colorado State. The Racers are being completely underrated here because of their showing in the conference tournament. The Rams earned an at-large bid from the Mountain West and that's no easy feat, but I think they will be completely over-matched and the Racers should take this by double digits. CORRECT
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By Dan Rodgers
Just to clarify, I don't think the play-in games are the first round. I think this is the play-in round and the first round starts Thursday. Also, I think it's stupid that random 14 and 12 seeds are forced to play an extra game to get to the actual tournament, but lower seeds don't have to. If you want to have play-in games, it should be all of the 16 seeds.
There are two play-in games tonight:
16 vs. 16 - Western Kentucky and Mississippi Valley State are currently in a battle, the winner gets to honor of getting destroyed by Kentucky in the first round. Western Kentucky is the first school with a losing record to make the tournament since 2009. It doesn't really matter because No. 1 seeds are 108-0 all-time in the first round, so why bother talking about it. -- WOW! This ended up being an exciting game as Western Kentucky went on a huge run to end the game.
12 vs. 12 - Unfortunately for BYU and Iona, the winner gets to lose to Marquette in the first round. This at least should be an entertaining game to watch, and it should be very high scoring. I expect BYU to win because I think they are just the better team; however, Iona might be playing with a chip on their shoulder since many experts are saying Iona didn't deserve to get an at-large bid.
The game I like the most tonight is in the NIT (aka Not In Tournament or National Invitational Tournament).
(6) LSU @ (3) Oregon -7.5 = I think this spread is way off. The Ducks have a damn good squad. They finished tied for second (with California) in the Pac-12 and lost in the conference tournament to eventual champion Colorado by one point (a week earlier Oregon beat Colorado by nine). LSU lost four out of their last five games and they don't do anything particularly well. I've seen Oregon play and they know how to fight and I just don't think that the Tigers can stick with them.
By Dan Rodgers
I know I've been struggling in my NBA picks recently (a pathetic 3-7 in my last 10), but I feel a turnaround tonight. We don't have any college basketball tonight as the brackets are all set and the first batch of play-in games is tomorrow, as well as the NIT.
There are a few NBA games that caught my eye and here's my take on them:
Milwaukee Bucks -3 @ New Jersey Nets = I know that I've been getting killed by taking road favorites, but I think this is a rare exception. The Nets are one of two teams (Hornets) that tend to play better on the road. New Jersey only has four wins at home, while 10 have come on the road. Like just about every other NBA team, Milwaukee plays better at home, but they've won two in a row, three of four, and put up 100+ points in three straight games. Ersan Ilyasova is playing lights out for the Bucks as they try to get by without Andrew Bogut. Ilyasova had 29 points and 25 rebounds in Milwaukee's last game against New Jersey. The Nets are coming off another home loss and will be without Mehmet Okur, Brook Lopez and possibly Deron Williams. CORRECT
Charlotte Bobcats @ New Orleans Hornets -7 = I know this is a huge spread between two terrible teams. I also know that I just spoke poorly about the Hornets at home, but they are playing the Bobcats! The Hornets look to put get their third two-game winning streak of the season, while Charlotte has lost three straight (including a 27-point beat-down handed out by OKC). I don't see any reason for the Hornets to not continue to build confidence and look for Chris Kaman to have another solid game in the paint. INCORRECT - one of the worst basketball games you will have ever seen...
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs -14 = The last time I picked against the Wizards they won outright. However, they are on the road against one of the best teams in the West so I just don't see that happening. The Spurs, who will be getting Tony Parker back, look to rebound from a 120-108 loss to the Clippers and the Wizards are a good team to get your act together against. I expect a very complete game and a solid defensive effort from this veteran San Antonio team. CORRECT - WOW! What a nail-biter...
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz -6.5 = This is an interesting game because the Pistons have somehow won three in a row (all at home). The Jazz are coming off back to back road losses and find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoff race in the West. Utah is a damn good home team (14-6) and even though the Pistons are playing well, they might just be what the doctor ordered considering how terrible they are on the road (3-15). Expect a big night from Millsap who has is averaging a double-double in his last few games against Detroit. CORRECT
Enjoy the games tonight and make sure to fill out your brackets!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Please refer to the previous post for my initial take on the selections...
The only game I've really liked today is the late game in the NBA.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 = Lob City is coming off one of their best offensive games of the season. They are starting a home stand and look to win back to back games for the first time in about a month. Golden State is coming off of an impressive win against the defending champs, but I think they hit a wall here. The Clippers match up will well with the Warriors and the last time they faced Golden State at home they won by 19. I think they coast to another easy victory.
I'll be breaking down the play-in games tomorrow and we are going to jump right into predictions.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Yes, today is the day. It's Super Sunday... and I'm not talk about the Super Bowl. This is the first taste that we will get of March Madness. At 6 p.m. we will find out which schools made the NCAA tournament and what seed they earned. Below I will break down each conference and which teams I think will get a bid. The first team is the conference champion (cc) and the rest are at large bids.
America East - Vermont (conference champs)
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure (cc), Temple, Saint Louis, Xavier
ACC - Florida State (cc), UNC, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (cc)
Big 12 - Missouri (cc), Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East - Louisville (cc), Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut
Big Sky - Montana (cc)
Big South - UNC Asheville (cc)
Big Ten - Michigan State (cc), Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West - Long Beach State (cc)
CAA - VCU (cc), Drexel, George Mason
C-USA - Memphis (cc), Southern Miss
Great West - North Dakota (cc)
Horizon - Detroit (cc)
Ivy - Harvard (cc)
MAAC - Loyola Maryland (cc), Iona
Mid-American - Ohio (cc)
MEAC - Norfolk State (cc)
Missouri Valley - Creighton (cc), Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico (cc), San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
NEC - LIU Brooklyn (cc)
Ohio Valley - Murray State (cc)
Pac-12 - Colorado (cc), California
Patriot League - Lehigh (cc)
SEC - Vanderbilt (cc), Kentucky, Florida
Southern - Davidson (cc)
Southland - Lamar (cc)
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State (cc)
Summit League - South Dakota State (cc)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (cc)
West Coast - Saint Mary's (cc), Gonzaga, BYU
WAC - New Mexico State (cc), Nevada
Above is your field of 68. There has been an endless debate about who the four No. 1 overall seeds will be and that is understandable. The top two ranked teams, Kentucky and Syracuse, didn't win their conference tournaments. I still think both of those teams will be awarded a No. 1 seed. I think Missouri joins them. A lot of people think Kansas should be one, but Missouri beat Baylor in that championship game. Baylor had beaten Kansas in the semifinals. Missouri also finished second in the conference and was ranked fifth so it's not crazy. People might think I'm crazy for saying that UNC shouldn't get one, but I was between them and Michigan State. UNC had the edge and if they won their conference tournament there would be no question. However, Florida State beat them and the score doesn't tell the whole story. In my opinion, the Big Ten is better overall than the ACC and Michigan State did beat Ohio State in the final. So the four seeds, in this order, should be:
Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Michigan State
UPDATE: Obviously, as expected, the committee gave UNC the No. 1 seed and Missouri got the two. All of the other predictions for those two seeds are correct, the order is just off.
The No. 2 seeds would then be, in order:
UNC
Kansas
Ohio State
Duke
I could go through every seed but we will just wait for the selection show for that to happen. Good luck to your school if they are on the bubble, and I'll be back later with NBA picks and teams that missed out on the tournament, etc.
UPDATE:
OKAY! Now that we've found out who made it and who didn't, I'm going to bold my correct predictions from above... I'm also going to talk about who I think got screwed and who made it but didn't earn it. I'm not going to bold the conference champs because they obviously earned a seed.
Not bad: I predicted 65 correct out of a possible 68. I gave the mid-majors a bit more love than the committee did. Purdue, Alabama and West Virginia are the three that I did not predict.
(10) Purdue - Iona, Temple and Michigan are the only tournament teams that the Boilermakers beat, one is in-conference and two are mid-majors. They are 1-9 against the AP top 25 and lost by double digits six times to the ranked teams in their conference. They didn't have a strong end to the season to convince the committee and got destroyed by Ohio State in the conference tournament.
(9) Alabama - Wichita State, Purdue (see above), VCU and Georgetown are the only tournament teams that the Crimson Tide beat this season. They were 0-4 against the AP top 25 and had a mediocre season in a below average conference. Bama didn't even beat one of the other three tournament teams in their own conference.
(10) WVU - Kansas State, Georgetown and South Florida are the only tournament teams that the Mountaineers beat this season and two of those are in-conference. They were 1-7 against the AP top 25, and they lost in the second round of the Big East tournament to UConn. They also don't deserve to be that high of a seed, but the committee gave this Big East squad the benefit of the doubt.
I understand that none of the mid-majors I selected to make the tournament faced an AP top 25 team and that their SOS might not have been great. However, the CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences and last season had four teams make it, including one in the Final four. Drexel and Nevada both ended the regular season at the top of their conference and all three teams had 24 or more wins.
Snubs are unfortunate but at leas the tournament got 65 of the 68 correct.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Today there aren't too many games, but a lot of the games are good ones. I'm going to start with Memphis. They play the smoking hot Marshall.
Marshall @ Memphis -12 = The Thundering Herd destroyed Southern Methodist and beat Tulsa in three overtimes before a convincing 9-point win over Southern Miss. A lot of people are picking Marshall because they are so hot, but I think they are going to run out of gas. I expect them to hang with the Tigers early and for Memphis to pull away in the second half. The Tigers are also hot, and playing at home. Memphis has won six in a row, all by double digits, and is shooting lights out this season (fifth in nation in FG%). CORRECT
I'll be back in a bit and post more games...
I like Ohio State, Michigan didn't play very well yesterday. The 7.5 is a bit high, but the pick would definitely be them - CORRECT. I also like Missouri (-3) over Baylor.
Colorado vs. Arizona -3.5 = The Wildcats beat the Buffaloes by 14 in the regular season. I think they are clearly the better team and couldn't believe that the line was so low. I don't have much else to say other than I think Colorado much struggle offensively. I think this is an easy win. INCORRECT
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt -6.5 = Vandy destroyed Ole Miss by 26 in the regular season. They are coming off of a 22-point win over Georgia, and I can't figure out for the life of my why this line isn't bigger. I don't see any reason why Vandy doesn't give us a repeat performance for an easy win. CORRECT
I'm going to try to hit a sweetheart teaser because the lines work so well:
NC State vs. UNC -1 = Bringing this line down to one is what makes this so damn appealing. The Wolfpack has been playing well recently but I don't see anyway they can beat UNC. The Tarheels are smoking right now and looking to leave no doubt that they deserve a No. 1 seed in the tournament. CORRECT
Massachusetts +11.5 vs. St. Bonaventure = UMass has just been playing really well the last few games and I don't see this one turning into a blowout. I'm not too well versed on these two A-10 teams, but getting 11.5 after UMass beat the Bonnies outright earlier in the season sounds good to me. CORRECT
Wisconsin +12 vs. Michigan State = I usually don't like picking against the Spartans because they are such a dangerous team. However, the Badgers have been playing incredibly well as of recent and I think their tough defense will keep them in this game. INCORRECT - The Badgers cut the lead to 11 with 20 seconds left and for some reason felt the need to foul. MSU made both to make the lead 13. Wisconsin missed a three and a layup after getting the offensive rebound... a very brutal way to lose.
I'll be back later with some NBA.
There isn't much I like in the NBA tonight, because all of the bad teams are on the road playing good teams and the spreads are huge.
Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls -11 = I know this is a big spread, but I made a play against the Jazz last night and it paid off. As I said last night, Utah is an awful road team and they lost by 13 in Philly yesterday. There is no reason for them to not be dominated again tonight by the Bulls. CORRECT
Also, I like the UNDER 197 in the OKC/Charlotte game. Charlotte has trouble scoring anyway and five of the Thunder's last seven games have gone under. INCORRECT
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Unfortunately, my early teaser didn't hit yesterday because Wake decided to suck while Maryland decided to have their best game of the season. Toledo was closer than I thought but that backdoor three was awesome and felt great after an iffy day.
Only one late game sticks out to me tonight in college basketball:
Missouri -5.5 vs. Texas = I know people say it's tough to beat a team three times in a season (Missouri won both regular season matchups), but the Tigers are a much better team than the Longhorns. Texas surprisingly beat Iowa State yesterday and Missouri destroyed Oklahoma State. I just think that the Tigers are hoping that winning the conference tourney (which would most likely mean beating Kansas) would earn them a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. CORRECT
I haven't done very well nor had much of an opinion of the recent NBA games but tonight that changes.
Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 = This spread is way off in my opinion. Now, I haven't been completely on but most of the teams have been on the road. Philly is at home and Utah is a bad road team (5-13). The 76ers are coming off of a 32-point victory of the Celtics and there is no reason the same won't happen here. CORRECT
I also like the Celtics at -3 and Oklahoma City is a huge favorite at -13 but I think they can get it done at home. (Celtics destroyed but Oklahoma City got embarrassed and lost outright. )
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
WOW! Yesterday was awesome and I was fortunate to be on the winning side of two close covers. The Pitt game early and the Toledo game late. I don't have too much time right now, and I will post more in depth later, but I wanted to post this sweetheart teaser I like for the early games.
8-point teaser:
Iowa +9.5 vs. Illinois = I know the only game between these two was an 11-point win for Illinois, but that was in Illinois and this is the conference tournament. Mediocre teams usually get up to play in their conference tournament and that's what makes college basketball so great. This should be a close one down to the wire and I think Iowa wins outright. CORRECT - I was right about the easy cover and outright win...
Wake Forest +12.5 vs. Maryland = This one is simple; they played once during the regular season and that was a six-point Maryland win at home. Both teams suck so this shouldn't be a blowout. INCORRECT - Seriously... why does Maryland have to play their best game of the season when I pick against them?
UConn +15 vs. Syracuse = UConn is so experienced and they had a hell of a comeback yesterday. This is just what they do and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset right here. They definitely shouldn't get blown out in a game that could decide their NCAA tournament fate. CORRECT - easy money... UConn should have won outright
I gotta run real quick so I just wanted to post that I like Marquette -3 the most during the 7 o'clocks. I will be back on to post about some late games that I like and about the teaser above.
I'll be back with more later!
I'm going to give my squeeze on a few late games. Unfortunately, every time Marquette gets back in the game they fall behind by 10 again. Pathetic game by Jae Crowder...
Toledo +11 vs. Ohio = This line couldn't be more puzzling... Toledo has won three in a row including their first round game against Central Michigan. Ohio has had an excellent season (24-7) but lost their only regular season game against Toledo by four. I just don't see a 15-point turnaround so I'll take my chances and ride the Toledo Rockets. CORRECT - WOW!
Georgia vs. Mississippi State -5 = Even though the Bulldogs (GA) beat the Bulldogs (MS) by two in overtime in their only regular season matchup, Georgia has no chance of making the tournament except for an unlikely conference tournament championship. Mississippi State is still alive and could use a few convincing wins in the conference tourney to pad their resume. INCORRECT - Apparently Miss St doesn't care...
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
I am going to come back to this post and update it a little bit later today. I just wanted to post my pick for the UConn/WVU game.
Connecticut -2 vs. West Virginia = UConn has won their last two games, including a blowout against DePaul yesterday in the first round. Jim Calhoun is back and I think he is the difference. West Virginia just had a solid win at South Florida to end the regular season, but USF struggles offensively. UConn is experienced and they were just in this position last season and I think that gives them a huge advantage. Look for them to get it done again today. CORRECT - are you kidding me? This game was incredibly exciting... even more so because we came out on top!
Expect more later today...
UCLA -12 vs. USC = Southern Cal is a top football program in the nation, but they are in the cellar of the Pac-12 and rarely provide anything cheer-worthy. UCLA has been playing fairly well recently even though they are having an down season. USC constantly gets destroyed and there is no reason to expect anything less tonight. UCLA needs to win the conference tournament if they want to make the NCAA tournament so they should leave it all on the court. CORRECT
South Florida -2 vs. Villanova = Nova is having an extremely disappointing season. Usually, when a team sweeps Nova, it's something to be proud of and put on your NCAA tournament resume, unfortunately for USF, that's not the case this season. The Bulls need to win tonight and possibly in the next round to try to get off the bubble. They are a solid defensive team and are desperate for a win. CORRECT
Central Michigan vs. Toledo -2.5 = The Rockets gave us a scare the other night when they blew a double digit lead. Thankfully, they ended the game on an 8-0 for the easy cover. The Chippewas are terrible this season so Toledo should find similar success tonight. They split during the regular season, but I'm not concerned especially because the conference tournament is in Ohio. CORRECT
NBA
L.A. Lakers -7 @ Washington Wizards = I would be surprised if lightning struck the same place twice. Kobe was off in the beginning of the game last night. He should be fine tonight since he switched back to his original mask, and the Wizards are a team I could've added to the list with Charlotte and Detroit. However, I'm sure the Lakers want to prove last night was a fluke so they shouldn't let up on the gas. Not crazy about this one though. INCORRECT - don't even get me started...
I'm confident that tonight will be better... and if it isn't... I might have to stop picking!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
OK, last night was clearly an indication that I shouldn't just post a few thoughts before the games without during my usual research. On Saturday, I knew my stuff and had a fairly successful day hitting four out of five of my college basketball picks. Last night, at one point or another, every team I picked looked like they were going to cruise to an easy cover. Let's review...
The Orlando Magic defense was embarrassed last night, giving up 100 points to a Bobcats team that accomplished the feat for just the fifth time this season. Charlotte scored 13 points over their season average, and while Charlotte on average gives up 100 points per game, they only gave up 84 to a Magic team that scored nearly 10 points below their average. The difference was mainly in the fourth quarter. However, we saw spurts early on in the game. Orlando was up big in the second quarter before the Bobcats went on a 12-0 run in three minutes to end the quarter. That was a huge turning point in the game because that made the halftime deficit five instead of 17. Charlotte had taken the lead by the end of the third quarter and then Orlando's defense hit a wall in the fourth, only managing a pathetic 13 points. They were outscored by 15, which was just about the difference.
Similarly, the Lakers were up seven after the first quarter, and we all once again thought we were going to cruise to an easy victory. However, a pathetic second quarter (17pts) led to a four-point halftime deficit. However, the defense picked up the slack after half and held the Pistons to nine points in the third quarter. The Lakers were once again up seven and we all assumed they had gotten their act together. However, the offense was once again pathetic in the fourth quarter (17pts) and L.A. only managed 78 points in regulation against a Pistons squad that on average gives up just under 96 points per game. That is seriously embarrassing, but what is even worse, not only did they not get their act together for OT, they lost outright also!
Last night was crazy in the NBA because in three out of the six games the underdog won outright, making the spread off in those games by 8.5 points or more. Vegas must have loved that.
NCAAB wasn't much better... I threw you North Texas, Villanova and Valparaiso...
North Texas was up 55-42 in the second half, but then they realized that they need to blow their huge lead like everyone else, and they were outscored 32-15 the rest of the game.
Villanova was actually down four at half but left no doubt in the second half and just destroyed Rutgers by 21 (the only bright spot of the night).
After sweeping Detroit in the regular season, the Crusaders held a 31-25 lead early in the second half. However, Detroit took the lead after an 11-0 run, and while Valparaiso cut the lead to one possession, the Titans eventually pulled away for a 20-point victory and a NCAA berth.
The Big East tourney is the main attraction right now, so I'll be back later with some thoughts on the early games today.
Let's hope for a better day than yesterday!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
I have class like right now and I've had class all day so this one is the definition of a quickie...
Once again, we have the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons playing tonight. Since both are at home, against the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively, we are getting value. These teams just suck wherever they play.
Orlando Magic -9 @ Charlotte Bobcats = The Bobcats have no one to matchup with Dwight Howard in the middle, and we all know that Orlando is one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA from beyond the arc. This one shouldn't even be close at halftime.
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 @ Detroit Pistons = The Lakers are having an off season compared to their track record, but they are still among the best in the NBA with All-World guard Kobe Bryant. No reason why L.A. doesn't take this one easily against a completely over-matched Pistons squad.
Nothing tickles me too much in NCAAB, but a few picks are: Villanova, North Texas, and Valparaiso.
Enjoy the games while I'm in class!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
So I didn't post anything the past two days. However, I did pick the Pacers and Grizzlies (both hit), however, I got screwed by a 41-point 4th quarter by the Jazz who scored eight points in the final 20 seconds.
A basic rule of thumb I go by in the NBA: Charlotte, Detroit and New Orleans are terrible. I know Detroit has 12 wins compared to only four my Charlotte, but the Pistons are awful and always look to go against them when they are on the road or facing a damn good team (like Memphis). The Bobcats are just the worst team in the NBA bar none. They give up 15 more points per game than they score, which means the odds are in your favor to go with the other team. Plus, the good part is that the Bobcats often fall far behind early and don't fight back so you can coast to an easy win. The Hornets tend to fight at home, but Indiana is way better and a matchup nightmare. However, against a mediocre team, the Hornets tend to put up a good fight at home but often get blown out on the road.
As for NCAAB yesterday, I loved Memphis early. That game was a blowout as expected. I also liked UConn, and Jim Calhoun didn't let us down in his first game back. Unfortunately, I was on the losing side of only the second home loss of the season for South Florida. Beating West Virginia and clinching the fourth seed and a double-bye in the Big East tournament would have all but locked up their ticket to the NCAA tournament but they disappointed big time.
There wasn't too much I liked the rest of the day... But let's move on to today...
Kentucky -5 @ Florida = The No. 1 ranked team plays their final game of the season today and they look to become the third team since 1956 to go undefeated in the SEC. They handled the Gators easily last time and Florida has lost their last two. I think Kentucky will get it done and cover the five points. I'm not crazy about them but definitely confident. CORRECT
Michigan -5 @ Penn State = This line puzzles me... Michigan beat the Nittany Lions at home by 18 points. Once again, I don't feel that Penn State deserves 13 points just for being at home. Also, State has lost their last three, including a 24-point beat-down at Purdue. I think Michigan should take care of business again, especially because they are still fighting for first place in the Big Ten. CORRECT
Ohio State @ Michigan State -3.5 = The Spartans beat the Buckeyes by 10 in Ohio and I think they can sweep the season series. State controls their own destiny, if they win, they win the Big Ten regular season title. INCORRECT - MichSt was up nine at half and lost outright.
Siena @ Loyola Maryland -6.5 = Loyola is having a great season and they swept the regular season series with wins by seven and 11. I see no reason for them to not win this game convincingly as well. CORRECT
Purdue @ Indiana -6 = The Hoosiers won at Purdue by 17. Now Indiana is at home and I think we are getting a bargain with a line of six. Purdue is a decent team and they definitely fight until the very end, but Indiana is coming off of a huge 15-point win over Michigan State and I think they follow that up with another big win. CORRECT
NBA
I'm not currently crazy about any games, but I'm going to re-evaluate later and I might add something.
UPDATE:
New York Knicks +2 @ Boston Celtics = So I didn't want to make a play and I just wanted to watch this great game. If I would have done something, I would have teased the Knicks. It was a great game so I hope you caught it. DIDN'T PICK
New Jersey Nets -4.5 @ Charlotte Bobcats = So I ended up deciding that the Nets are a decent enough road team to take care of business. With Lopez back to playing in the paint, they'll take care of business. INCORRECT - The Nets dominated the second half after an iffy first half, they were covering but a couple of late buckets allowed Charlotte to kick the backdoor wide open... What a waste of a 57-point performance by D-Will... also, the Bobcats went 37/39 from the charity stripe, the Nets missed 11 FTs... it happens
Other Notes: I like the Rockets to win at home (the spread is around -1), and I also think the 76ers will give Chicago all they can handle and should cover as well at home (spread is around +4).
Enjoy the games for the rest of the night.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Tonight is a huge night in the world of college basketball. A few conference tournaments get underway or continue tonight (Atlantic Sun and WCC) and three top 25 teams play tonight, including No. 1 Kentucky. They face Georgia at home, and while they may not cover the huge spread on the game (19.5), they shouldn't have any issue retaining the No. 1 spot.
As you might know, I'm a Virginia Tech fan. They play in Clemson tonight and basically need to win out the regular season and win the ACC tournament if they want to go dancing. They've gotten screwed a lot this season and been on the short end of a ton of close games (lost 9 games by 5 or less, 5 games by one possession). I'll be rooting for them as always (6.5 underdogs tonight), but it sucks to see them so close to making the tournament every year and getting screwed.
On to my game of the night.
There is one game, from a spread viewpoint, that stands out to me: Washington -7 @ USC
USC lost in Washington by 28. I'm sorry but I don't think that USC should be getting 21 extra points just for being at home. USC is the worst team in the Pac-12 and Washington is in first. Two of Washington's three conference losses were on the road and they were to three out of the other top five teams in the conference. USC hasn't won a game in over a month, hasn't scored over 54 points in over a month, and Washington averages more than 20 more points per game than USC (74.9 - 53.3).
I honestly see no way that USC covers this and wouldn't be surprised if Washington had this covered well before halftime and cruised from there.
Washington 72 (-7) USC 49
NOTE: I'm not going to do units right now, I'm just going to make picks.
There aren't many games going on tonight in the NBA, but there is one really good one: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic
The late game on TNT (the early one is above) is Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers. That is definitely not a bad game and I think the Blazers will give Miami all they can handle. I'm not a big fan of any of these games, unlike the Lakers last night or the Pacers two nights ago (I felt the same about them as I do about Washington). So I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the games.
Rodgers That
NOTE: This is not a gambling website, nor does it promote gambling.
By Dan Rodgers
So it's been a while... I hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl a few weeks back. My prediction of the Giants winning outright was correct. We just finished NBA All-Star Weekend, and it kind of sucked in my opinion. The halftime show was good, better than the Super Bowl halftime show.
We are in full-swing in college basketball and NBA seasons. We already have to deal with Joe Lunardi's "first 4 in and last 4 out" every night on ESPN.
We are in the second part of this shortened NBA season, and teams are still trying to get into a grove. I'm going to start doing weekly reviews, and my position on surprise teams and why they're successful. Also, I'll be talking about my fantasy basketball team and how I'm going in my league.
With all this talk about basketball, please don't forget about baseball! Spring training has begun and players are reporting and are beginning team organized activities. I'll also be getting into season predictions, as well as fantasy baseball.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - The Rematch
We are less than two hours before kickoff of Super Bowl XLVI and Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski is officially active for the game, surprise-surprise...
This is the first Super Bowl in the history of the sport between two former Super Bowl MVPs. Tom Brady will try for the second time to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QBs to win the Super Bowl four times. This is also Brady's second try against the Giants (Super Bowl XLII).
New York offense:
The Giants' passing attack is just as explosive and difficult to defend as New England's; however, New York has a respectable running game that I expect them to utilize. I will be looking for Ahmad Bradshaw to have a big game because he is small, quick and elusive. He should be able to eclipse 100 total yards between rushing and receiving out of the backfield. If Brandon Jacobs doesn't start the game and show effectiveness, look for Coughlin to focus on Bradshaw. Jacobs is an incredible back when he runs downhill and straight ahead, but he is useless when he dances around and takes time on his cuts.
The Eli Manning-led passing attack is as good as any in the league because of the depth the Giants have at receiver. They lack a truly effective receiving tight end (unlike the Pats), but with Nicks, Cruz, Manningham and Bradshaw's ability out of the backfield, the Giants have numerous play-makers that New England's porous defense needs to account for today. Eli Manning has proved this season that he should be considered a top quarterback in the NFL, but he can cement his place as an elite QB with a victory.
New England offense:
The Pats are the same offensive team that they have been, with the exception of replacing Randy Moss with Rob Gronkowski. They rely on quick passes and timing. An effective way to get Brady out of his element is to get pressure with your four-man rush and clog the passing lanes by playing zone coverage. The Giants have one of the best defensive lines I've ever seen, and should be able to get pressure similar to that of Super Bowl XLII. However, unfortunately for the Giants, there might not be a better coach in the business at pregame planning and in-game adjustments than Bill Belichick. BB is even better when he gets to rematch a team he lost to earlier that season.
The Pats do an excellent job of using the pass to open up the run and are not afraid to rely on Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis if he is finding running room. The Law Firm is a big back and he doesn't fumble, which makes him an excellent complement to a Belichick-coached team. The Giants can't over-compensate for the pass or Green-Ellis will run all over them.
Recap:
I think the Giants will get a formidable amount of pressure on Brady and cause some problems. I also think that even though New England has the worst defense in the NFL, Belichick will have them ready. A lot of people think this one is going way over the total (53.5), but remember the total of the game played earlier this season was only (44, all scored in the second half).
I said it earlier and I'll say it again, if the Giants make the Super Bowl - they'll win it. I will stick by that.
Prediction:
New York Giants 27 (+3) New England Patriots 23
Enjoy the final game of the NFL season.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Well, I was wrong only for the second time this post-season. Sunday was a fairly frustrating day and I didn't even have my team involved.
First, the Pats/Ravens game looked perfect. They were within a score of each other the entire game, and the halftime total was on pace to go over in the teaser. However, a stupid attempted fourth down by the Ravens and a missed field goal at the end cost us the tease by a half point. Brady uncharacteristically threw two interceptions in the second half and couldn't convert a red zone possession into a touchdown. Joe Flacco added a second half interception and couldn't lead the Ravens to a touchdown after earning a short field when recovering a fumble on a kickoff.
So as you can tell, everything had to go perfectly wrong in this game. Brady got completely outplayed and posted his lowest passer-rating since the Pats 2009 Wild Card loss to the Ravens.
The 49ers/Giants game went relatively how I expected. I was hoping to see more from the 49ers' receivers due to the mediocrity of the Giants secondary; however, it was just Vernon Davis that torched the secondary. The 49ers defense was unable to contain Victor Cruz, and surprisingly, Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw had 70 yards on 20 carries, which is decent considering San Fran's run defense is superb. However, Bradshaw had six catches for 50 yards, including a 30-yarder.
The first turning point in the game was when Kyle Williams let a punt bounce and hit him in the leg. Apparently, Williams didn't know the ball hit him, made no attempt at a recovery, and the Giants recovered. On a short field, the Giants converted two third-downs on their way to scoring the go-ahead touchdown. San Fran did respond, but had to settle for a field goal after getting inside the 10-yard-line. Both teams traded punts for the rest of regulation and into overtime.
After the Giants advanced the ball just passed midfield, the 49er defense held strong and forced another punt. Kyle Williams, doing his best to screw his team over, had a five-yard return before once again being the cause of a turnover. The Giants were able to play it safe, get a little closer, and Lawrence Tynes once again kicked the Giants into a Super Bowl match-up with the New England Patriots.
The Giants won the game outright, which I said I wouldn't be surprised if they did. The Giants obviously covered the tease, but I was still disappointed that I picked San Fran, and in my opinion, they should have won and covered the two. Well, at least the games were eventful.
Disappointing fact: The Ravens (my girlfriend and friends' team) and Jets (my team) have lost in the AFC Championship game each of the last four seasons. Ravens '08, '11 - Jets '09, '10
I don't know about you, but I didn't want this Super Bowl. However, it should at least be an exciting one with a lot of story-lines.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Well, we're down to the Final Four and while many could have predicted the AFC's participants before the season started, not many people had the 49ers and Giants in mind to be the NFC's final two participants.
The spreads for both games have been moving since they were first released last week. However, I don't think it has changed my opinion on them. If you aren't listening to me by now, you probably never will. However, if you are, you are experiencing quite a successful post-season thus far. I am 7-1 ATS, including 4-0 this past weekend.
I'll admit I was having a tough time reading the games when the lines were first released. I have a better feel now, and you'll find my thoughts below.
Early Game
(2) Baltimore Ravens (+7) at (1) New England Patriots
This is clearly a game between two polar opposites. The Ravens love to play defense, and the Pats love to play offense. However, the Patriots put together a very complete game last week in their 45-10 drubbing of the Denver Broncos. The Ravens didn't look very good on offense against the Texans second-ranked defense, but didn't commit any penalties or turnovers. Baltimore should obvious find more success against an abysmal New England defense, but their lack of execution leaves me wanting more.
I think Ravens fans need to recognize a lack of execution and stop putting the sole blame for the offensive woes on O-Coordinator Cam Cameron. If the Ravens can execute today, the Pats will struggle to stop them due to their balance. With a top running back and receivers that can stretch the field, we will likely see an offensive battle in this game. I think there is no question that the Ravens should cover, pending a crazy amount of turnovers, penalties, or injuries (of course), but coming away with a trip to Indianapolis will solely rely on the offensive execution.
Of course, if the Ravens can't stop the unique combination of Welker and Gronkowski, it will take at least 30 points to beat Brady and the Pats. However, I have faith that Baltimore can at least slow down Brady. The key to stopping Brady is getting pressure with the front four. If the Ravens can effectively rush Brady with their d-line and drop seven into coverage, it will clog the passing lanes and should frustrate Brady. We've seen evidence of this against the Steelers this season and the Jets in the playoffs last season.
Unfortunately, I think the Patriots are too good on offense and their defense will step up in this big game. It should be a close one though, and it would not at all surprise me if Baltimore won outright.
Prediction:
New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 27 (+7)
Late Game
(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2)
I'm much less confident on this game. I think that the 49ers will win, but if the Giants do, they'll win the Super Bowl. Both teams have very good defenses, but both offenses have played very well as of recent. In my opinion, the Giants are the hottest team in the playoffs, but the 49ers are the most complete team.
The Giants defensive line is the best I've ever seen. All of the players: Tuck, Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, etc. are all strong, athletic, and fast off the line. They are the reason the Giants are so successful. If they can't get pressure, any above average quarterback should be able to pick apart their mediocre secondary. However, the 49ers love to play physical and should give the Giants d-line all they can handle. San Fran likes to run the ball should have no problem using multiple tight end sets to help block.
There is nothing special about the 49ers offense. They like to methodically move the ball down the field, focusing on the run game. I see this game being decided by offense because both defenses should find success. I think Eli Manning is clearly the superior QB, but Alex Smith has been playing well and doesn't make many mistakes.
Like I said earlier, I think the 49ers will win, but wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pulled it out. I'm picking San Fran to cover, but the real play with this game is teasing the Giants to +8.5.
Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 23 (-2) New York Giants 20
Money teaser: 6.5-tease Ravens +13.5, OVER 43.5 (Bal/NE), Giants +8.5 (5 units)
Enjoy what should be another fantastic weekend of playoff football. Make sure you set your NFL Playoff Fantasy Challenge lineups!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Early Game
(3) Houston Texans (+9) at (2) Baltimore Ravens
This is a very interesting game, and fortunately for the Ravens, they get to face a very talented Texans team whose without their starting quarterback and best defensive player. Even so, Houston was able to dominate last week against Cincinnati. I think the Texans will need to get their running game going if they want to have any success. Arian Foster and Ben Tate combined for 190 against a good Cincy defense, and they'll need to find their holes to open up the passing game for Yates. The Ravens typically feast on rookie quarterbacks, but they don't usually face rookies with such a strong supporting cast.
The Ravens offense will need to make sure they have a balanced attack and don't forget to get their best offensive player, Ray Rice, the touches he deserves. The Texans must pressure Joe Flacco and force him into check downs to make sure they don't get burned by Torrey Smith or Lee Evans. Stretching the defense will be a key for Ray Rice to find some running room.
I think if Ray Rice gets 17-23 carries and a few catches, the Ravens should be balanced enough to move the ball against Houston. While I don't see the Ravens shutting Houston down, unless Haloti Ngata and the Ravens defense can't contain Foster, I think Baltimore will pull this one out and makes their second AFC Championship game in four years. This will be a close one though.
Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 20 Houston Texans 16 (+9)
Late Game
(4) New York Giants (+8) at (1) Green Bay Packers
The Packers are, by record, the NFL's best team this season, and they were a let down against Kansas City away from going 16-0. This game is a rematch of a game in New York earlier this season. The game was before the Giants hit their stride, but they did keep the game close before losing by a field goal.
The Giants pass rush is what makes their defense so effective. They should be able to get pressure on Rodgers, and while he is a good scrambling QB, it will have some impact. New York's run defense is fairly irrelevant because the Packers don't run much, but they have to make sure they don't let Ryan Grant or James Starks break a long run. The Packers offensive effectiveness will be determined by the protection. If the Giants rush is ineffective, this game will probably turn into a blowout. However, like I said earlier, don't expect that to happen.
You can throw away the regular season statistics for the Giants offense because they are playing extremely well. They rushed for over 170 yards and Eli Manning threw three touchdowns in last week's blowout win against Atlanta. They should find success against a weak Packers defense. However, Green Bay's defense does have a knack for making big plays when it matters most, so expect them to come up with a big stop late in the game.
I think this will be an exciting game and the Giants should be able to stick with the Pack most of the way.
Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 30 New York Giants 23 (+8)
Enjoy what looks to be an awesome weekend of the Divisional Round Playoffs.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Early Game
(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
This is a game between polar opposite teams. The 49ers are one of the few defensive teams left in the playoffs, and the best defensive team in the NFC. They face the one of the best offensive teams in the Saints. Drew Brees broke the single season record for passing yards, and the Saints are still sixth in the NFL in rushing.
San Fran is the underdog and they are playing at home. There is one key to this game for the San Fran offense: score touchdowns, not field goals. David Akers broke a ton of records this season with all of this field goals for the 49ers, but that won't fly today against the Saints. If Alex Smith can get his team in the endzone, they will definitely have a chance because of their defense. The key for the Saints defense is clearly to bend but not break, something they've done fairly well this season.
The 49ers defense has to take away the New Orleans running game. I know you would think they should focus on Brees, but the running game is something that Brees uses to be so successful. If the 49ers front four can limit the rushing attack, they should see some success in slowing down Brees. The Saints should come out with play action and assume that the 49ers defense will immediately respect the run.
I think this will be a close game at the end even if it's not throughout. The Saints will probably win because they are more experienced and come up with big plays at big times, but I like San Fran at home with the points.
Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 23 (+3.5)
Late Game
(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots (-13.5)
This is another game between two very different teams. The Patriots love to throw the ball and use that to open up the run game. The Broncos play decent defense and use a college-type option offense to run the ball well. The problem for the Broncos is they are extremely inexperienced and are about to play a team that is not injured or inconsistent on offense.
While I hate him, Tom Brady should shred this defense like he did in their regular season meeting in Denver. It took a little while for the Pats to get going, but when they did, Denver couldn't keep up with them. The problem with Denver falling behind is that they aren't built for huge comebacks. We saw them comeback down one or two possessions earlier this season, but the Pats won't let them stick around.
If Denver's defense wants to have any success they should rely on their front four or five to stop the run and devote everyone else into stopping the pass. Tom Brady will pick apart a blitz, so the most effective way to stop him is to clog to passing lanes and drop a ton of guys into zone. Brady's success is all about timing, so if you jam the receivers at the line or get into the passing lanes, he will have to adjust.
Regardless, I don't think it matters. I hate the Pats as much as anyone, and I think they are going to absolutely stomp the Broncos. Denver got lucky in their last game that it took Brady a while to get going and Denver's offense was functioning fairly well. However, they were kicking field goals and started turning the ball over. I think New England wins big, but I wouldn't be surprised if I got screwed by a backdoor cover by Tebow.
Prediction:
New England Patriots 44 (-13.5) Denver Broncos 17
Check back later today, tonight, or tomorrow morning for Sunday's picks.
Rodgers That
