NFL Championship Weekend

By Dan Rodgers

Well, we're down to the Final Four and while many could have predicted the AFC's participants before the season started, not many people had the 49ers and Giants in mind to be the NFC's final two participants.

The spreads for both games have been moving since they were first released last week. However, I don't think it has changed my opinion on them. If you aren't listening to me by now, you probably never will. However, if you are, you are experiencing quite a successful post-season thus far. I am 7-1 ATS, including 4-0 this past weekend.

I'll admit I was having a tough time reading the games when the lines were first released. I have a better feel now, and you'll find my thoughts below.

Early Game
(2) Baltimore Ravens (+7) at (1) New England Patriots

This is clearly a game between two polar opposites. The Ravens love to play defense, and the Pats love to play offense. However, the Patriots put together a very complete game last week in their 45-10 drubbing of the Denver Broncos. The Ravens didn't look very good on offense against the Texans second-ranked defense, but didn't commit any penalties or turnovers. Baltimore should obvious find more success against an abysmal New England defense, but their lack of execution leaves me wanting more.

I think Ravens fans need to recognize a lack of execution and stop putting the sole blame for the offensive woes on O-Coordinator Cam Cameron. If the Ravens can execute today, the Pats will struggle to stop them due to their balance. With a top running back and receivers that can stretch the field, we will likely see an offensive battle in this game. I think there is no question that the Ravens should cover, pending a crazy amount of turnovers, penalties, or injuries (of course), but coming away with a trip to Indianapolis will solely rely on the offensive execution.

Of course, if the Ravens can't stop the unique combination of Welker and Gronkowski, it will take at least 30 points to beat Brady and the Pats. However, I have faith that Baltimore can at least slow down Brady. The key to stopping Brady is getting pressure with the front four. If the Ravens can effectively rush Brady with their d-line and drop seven into coverage, it will clog the passing lanes and should frustrate Brady. We've seen evidence of this against the Steelers this season and the Jets in the playoffs last season.

Unfortunately, I think the Patriots are too good on offense and their defense will step up in this big game. It should be a close one though, and it would not at all surprise me if Baltimore won outright.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 27 (+7)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2)

I'm much less confident on this game. I think that the 49ers will win, but if the Giants do, they'll win the Super Bowl. Both teams have very good defenses, but both offenses have played very well as of recent. In my opinion, the Giants are the hottest team in the playoffs, but the 49ers are the most complete team.

The Giants defensive line is the best I've ever seen. All of the players: Tuck, Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, etc. are all strong, athletic, and fast off the line. They are the reason the Giants are so successful. If they can't get pressure, any above average quarterback should be able to pick apart their mediocre secondary. However, the 49ers love to play physical and should give the Giants d-line all they can handle. San Fran likes to run the ball should have no problem using multiple tight end sets to help block.

There is nothing special about the 49ers offense. They like to methodically move the ball down the field, focusing on the run game. I see this game being decided by offense because both defenses should find success. I think Eli Manning is clearly the superior QB, but Alex Smith has been playing well and doesn't make many mistakes.

Like I said earlier, I think the 49ers will win, but wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pulled it out. I'm picking San Fran to cover, but the real play with this game is teasing the Giants to +8.5.

Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 23 (-2) New York Giants 20

Money teaser: 6.5-tease Ravens +13.5, OVER 43.5 (Bal/NE), Giants +8.5 (5 units)

Enjoy what should be another fantastic weekend of playoff football. Make sure you set your NFL Playoff Fantasy Challenge lineups!

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) Houston Texans (+9) at (2) Baltimore Ravens

This is a very interesting game, and fortunately for the Ravens, they get to face a very talented Texans team whose without their starting quarterback and best defensive player. Even so, Houston was able to dominate last week against Cincinnati. I think the Texans will need to get their running game going if they want to have any success. Arian Foster and Ben Tate combined for 190 against a good Cincy defense, and they'll need to find their holes to open up the passing game for Yates. The Ravens typically feast on rookie quarterbacks, but they don't usually face rookies with such a strong supporting cast.

The Ravens offense will need to make sure they have a balanced attack and don't forget to get their best offensive player, Ray Rice, the touches he deserves. The Texans must pressure Joe Flacco and force him into check downs to make sure they don't get burned by Torrey Smith or Lee Evans. Stretching the defense will be a key for Ray Rice to find some running room.

I think if Ray Rice gets 17-23 carries and a few catches, the Ravens should be balanced enough to move the ball against Houston. While I don't see the Ravens shutting Houston down, unless Haloti Ngata and the Ravens defense can't contain Foster, I think Baltimore will pull this one out and makes their second AFC Championship game in four years. This will be a close one though.

Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 20 Houston Texans 16 (+9)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants (+8) at (1) Green Bay Packers

The Packers are, by record, the NFL's best team this season, and they were a let down against Kansas City away from going 16-0. This game is a rematch of a game in New York earlier this season. The game was before the Giants hit their stride, but they did keep the game close before losing by a field goal.

The Giants pass rush is what makes their defense so effective. They should be able to get pressure on Rodgers, and while he is a good scrambling QB, it will have some impact. New York's run defense is fairly irrelevant because the Packers don't run much, but they have to make sure they don't let Ryan Grant or James Starks break a long run. The Packers offensive effectiveness will be determined by the protection. If the Giants rush is ineffective, this game will probably turn into a blowout. However, like I said earlier, don't expect that to happen.

You can throw away the regular season statistics for the Giants offense because they are playing extremely well. They rushed for over 170 yards and Eli Manning threw three touchdowns in last week's blowout win against Atlanta. They should find success against a weak Packers defense. However, Green Bay's defense does have a knack for making big plays when it matters most, so expect them to come up with a big stop late in the game.

I think this will be an exciting game and the Giants should be able to stick with the Pack most of the way.

Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 30 New York Giants 23 (+8)

Enjoy what looks to be an awesome weekend of the Divisional Round Playoffs.

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Saturday

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

This is a game between polar opposite teams. The 49ers are one of the few defensive teams left in the playoffs, and the best defensive team in the NFC. They face the one of the best offensive teams in the Saints. Drew Brees broke the single season record for passing yards, and the Saints are still sixth in the NFL in rushing.

San Fran is the underdog and they are playing at home. There is one key to this game for the San Fran offense: score touchdowns, not field goals. David Akers broke a ton of records this season with all of this field goals for the 49ers, but that won't fly today against the Saints. If Alex Smith can get his team in the endzone, they will definitely have a chance because of their defense. The key for the Saints defense is clearly to bend but not break, something they've done fairly well this season.

The 49ers defense has to take away the New Orleans running game. I know you would think they should focus on Brees, but the running game is something that Brees uses to be so successful. If the 49ers front four can limit the rushing attack, they should see some success in slowing down Brees. The Saints should come out with play action and assume that the 49ers defense will immediately respect the run.

I think this will be a close game at the end even if it's not throughout. The Saints will probably win because they are more experienced and come up with big plays at big times, but I like San Fran at home with the points.

Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 23 (+3.5)

Late Game
(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots (-13.5)

This is another game between two very different teams. The Patriots love to throw the ball and use that to open up the run game. The Broncos play decent defense and use a college-type option offense to run the ball well. The problem for the Broncos is they are extremely inexperienced and are about to play a team that is not injured or inconsistent on offense.

While I hate him, Tom Brady should shred this defense like he did in their regular season meeting in Denver. It took a little while for the Pats to get going, but when they did, Denver couldn't keep up with them. The problem with Denver falling behind is that they aren't built for huge comebacks. We saw them comeback down one or two possessions earlier this season, but the Pats won't let them stick around.

If Denver's defense wants to have any success they should rely on their front four or five to stop the run and devote everyone else into stopping the pass. Tom Brady will pick apart a blitz, so the most effective way to stop him is to clog to passing lanes and drop a ton of guys into zone. Brady's success is all about timing, so if you jam the receivers at the line or get into the passing lanes, he will have to adjust.

Regardless, I don't think it matters. I hate the Pats as much as anyone, and I think they are going to absolutely stomp the Broncos. Denver got lucky in their last game that it took Brady a while to get going and Denver's offense was functioning fairly well. However, they were kicking field goals and started turning the ball over. I think New England wins big, but I wouldn't be surprised if I got screwed by a backdoor cover by Tebow.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 44 (-13.5) Denver Broncos 17

Check back later today, tonight, or tomorrow morning for Sunday's picks.

Rodgers That