Week 12 Review, 13 Preview

By Dan Rodgers

OK, sorry this is out so late, but I can give you any number of people as proof that I had Seattle. It should also be proof that I said a few weeks ago that I was never picking Philly again.

First off, Thanksgiving started out decent and ended awfully. Even though the Pack covered with ease, my fantasy players in the game didn't accomplish much. Then, the Cowboys let the recently relentless Dolphins stick around long enough to get the cover. And at night the 49ers offense can't do anything and the Ravens only needed 16 points for the win and cover.

So I started off 1-2 ATS and 2-1 SU.

Then on Sunday, I forgot that whenever I pick the Rams, they suck... especially against the Cards. For the second time this season, the amazing Patrick Peterson had a punt return touchdown against St. Louis. This was incredibly frustrating.

Then the Jets game: they won, so I don't care...

I read the battle of Ohio game perfectly. However, due to the Browns being stupid enough to attempt a 55-yard field goal with less than two minutes left and the game tied, the Bengals almost got the push with an awesome play by AJ Green. Thankfully, he was pushed out at the 2-yardline and the Browns held Cincy to a field goal. Cleveland easily should have won the game as they outplayed Cincy the whole game, but at least I got the cover. The Houston game was easy even though Leinart got hurt and they played with their third-string quarterback. Carolina and Tennessee went back and forth, but I came out on top.

In my book, I had Atlanta at 9.5 but on here I have them at 10. That is frustrating considering the Falcons were owning Minnesota the whole game and out of no where it was a three point game. The Chicago game was just as frustrating. I don't remember Caleb Hanie sucking so much in last season's NFC championship. Of course, the Bears should have won outright but missed the cover by a point. Seattle was playing fairly well. Washington got a 50-yard bomb on third and forever. The momentum immediately shifted and Seattle was screwed.

New England and Denver were easy choices and I even got Denver SU. Pittsburgh's defense played extremely well and forced a ton of turnovers, but the offense looked really out of sync and couldn't capitalize on anything. New Orleans destroyed New York.

The covers I missed, I was fairly close and seemed to get screwed on a few instances. It was really frustrating.

Philly sucks and had to travel on a short week. Seattle is a tough place to play and Lynch absolutely owned the Philly run defense.

A few notables this week:

• The Patriots are favored by more than 20 points over the Colts, and this is only the tenth time since 1989 that a team has been a favorite of 20 or more. Favorites in the previous nine contests are 2-7 ATS. However, Indy is so unbelievably terrible I don't know if I can pick them.
  
• There are four teams favored even though they are playing a team with a better record, three of them are at home.
• 13 of the 16 games this week have a line of a touchdown or less.
• The 49ers can clinch the division this week with a win over the Rams.
• Could we have an 0-12 and 12-0 team?

A few games I think are interesting:

• I know Houston lost two quarterbacks but they are still at home. Teams that play their first game with their backup quarterback usually try to play well for them. I think they will beat Atlanta outright.
  
• I know Detroit has been struggling but I was surprised to see New Orleans favored by nine. I will definitely have to do some research that game because that is a big spread for a team in the Lions who scores a lot.
• San Francisco is coming back home and has extra rest. The defense played great against Baltimore and now they face divisional foe St. Louis. They are only favored by 13 and they should cover easy.
  
• My favorite game is Green Bay vs. New York. The Giants are clearly in their usual late-season tailspin. The Packers are still on fire and there is no reason they shouldn't win by 20, just like New Orleans did last week. For some reason, the Pack is only favored by 6.5 and I like them to cover that from the first quarter through the game.
  

I'll post my picks tomorrow before I go to the Towson vs. Lehigh game. I'm pumped for the game because it is the first meaningful game since I've been at school.

Rodgers That

Happy Thanksgiving

By Dan Rodgers

So, in my eyes, I've been struggling with my picks. I've been around .500 the last few weeks which is below average in my mind because I know what I'm capable of doing. I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksgiving because this is one of the greatest American traditions, eat as much as possible and watch football from noon until midnight. I'll post today's games now and the rest tomorrow or Saturday.

Green Bay Packers -6 at Detroit Lions

The Pack is unstoppable... offensively. Fortunately for the Lions, their defense is suspect at best. A mediocre Josh Freeman and LaGarrett Blount kept it relatively close against Green Bay last week, who at two separate times in the fourth quarter cut the lead to two points. I think that it is tradition for the Lions to play, and lose, on Thanksgiving. While Detroit's offense looked good in the second half last week, they aren't going up against a defense as bad as Carolina's. Also, keep in mind that Detroit gave up 35 points to Cam Newton and Steve Smith. I think that means we are looking at about 50 points from Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley... (and the list goes on).

It should be a better game than we've seen in recent years, but I don't think Detroit will be able to have the offensive success they had last week to the tune of 49 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see a backdoor cover by either team.

Packers (-6) 31 Lion 23

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys -7

I'll start by saying that the Miami Dolphins have won three games in a row. That in itself is absolutely amazing, but let us consider the competition (Kansas City, Washington, Buffalo). Dallas played down to their opponent last week as it took overtime and a few missed field goals to beat Washington. However, the Cowboys always get up for Thanksgiving and Tony Romo is 4-0 ATS on Thanksgiving. For some reason, they are the anti-Lions. While the Lions stink it up every year, we can always count on Dallas to take care of business. This year shouldn't be any different. While Dallas' defense might have some issues with Miami's newly impressive passing game, there is no way Miami can stop Romo, Murray, Bryant and Witten.

I like DeMarco Murray to have a good game even though Miami has played well against the run recently. Also, Brandon Marshall is in for a big day because Dallas' secondary has been decimated by injuries.

Cowboys (-7) 34 Dolphins 24

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens -3.5

I will be at this game, and it should be a great one. Of course, it has been dubbed the Harbaugh Bowl, or the Harbowl, or whatever you want to call it. The first game in NFL history where the teams are coached by brothers. In my opinion, the NFL shafted the 49ers this week, similar to how they did the Jets last week. The 49ers have to travel from coast to coast (already very difficult), and now they have to do it on a short week.

San Fran has been outstanding this year defensively. They have yet to give up a rushing touchdown, and that will most definitely be put to the test tonight as they face off against Ray Rice. This game will be determined by whether or not San Fran's offense can do anything against Baltimore's defense. This should be a low-scoring affair, but I don't expect sloppy football. Whichever way it goes, it won't be a happy Thanksgiving in the Harbaugh home.

X-Factor: Whether or not Ray Lewis plays tonight.

San Francisco (+3.5) 20 Ravens 17

Once again, enjoy your Thanksgiving and all of the games today.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That