No CBB Tonight... But We Still Have the NBA!

By Dan Rodgers

I know I've been struggling in my NBA picks recently (a pathetic 3-7 in my last 10), but I feel a turnaround tonight. We don't have any college basketball tonight as the brackets are all set and the first batch of play-in games is tomorrow, as well as the NIT.

There are a few NBA games that caught my eye and here's my take on them:

Milwaukee Bucks -3 @ New Jersey Nets = I know that I've been getting killed by taking road favorites, but I think this is a rare exception. The Nets are one of two teams (Hornets) that tend to play better on the road. New Jersey only has four wins at home, while 10 have come on the road. Like just about every other NBA team, Milwaukee plays better at home, but they've won two in a row, three of four, and put up 100+ points in three straight games. Ersan Ilyasova is playing lights out for the Bucks as they try to get by without Andrew Bogut. Ilyasova had 29 points and 25 rebounds in Milwaukee's last game against New Jersey. The Nets are coming off another home loss and will be without Mehmet Okur, Brook Lopez and possibly Deron Williams. CORRECT

Charlotte Bobcats @ New Orleans Hornets -7 = I know this is a huge spread between two terrible teams. I also know that I just spoke poorly about the Hornets at home, but they are playing the Bobcats! The Hornets look to put get their third two-game winning streak of the season, while Charlotte has lost three straight (including a 27-point beat-down handed out by OKC). I don't see any reason for the Hornets to not continue to build confidence and look for Chris Kaman to have another solid game in the paint. INCORRECT - one of the worst basketball games you will have ever seen...

Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs -14 = The last time I picked against the Wizards they won outright. However, they are on the road against one of the best teams in the West so I just don't see that happening. The Spurs, who will be getting Tony Parker back, look to rebound from a 120-108 loss to the Clippers and the Wizards are a good team to get your act together against. I expect a very complete game and a solid defensive effort from this veteran San Antonio team. CORRECT - WOW! What a nail-biter...

Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz -6.5 = This is an interesting game because the Pistons have somehow won three in a row (all at home). The Jazz are coming off back to back road losses and find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoff race in the West. Utah is a damn good home team (14-6) and even though the Pistons are playing well, they might just be what the doctor ordered considering how terrible they are on the road (3-15). Expect a big night from Millsap who has is averaging a double-double in his last few games against Detroit. CORRECT

Enjoy the games tonight and make sure to fill out your brackets!

Rodgers That

CBB Lite

By Dan Rodgers

Today there aren't too many games, but a lot of the games are good ones. I'm going to start with Memphis. They play the smoking hot Marshall.

Marshall @ Memphis -12 = The Thundering Herd destroyed Southern Methodist and beat Tulsa in three overtimes before a convincing 9-point win over Southern Miss. A lot of people are picking Marshall because they are so hot, but I think they are going to run out of gas. I expect them to hang with the Tigers early and for Memphis to pull away in the second half. The Tigers are also hot, and playing at home. Memphis has won six in a row, all by double digits, and is shooting lights out this season (fifth in nation in FG%). CORRECT

I'll be back in a bit and post more games...

I like Ohio State, Michigan didn't play very well yesterday. The 7.5 is a bit high, but the pick would definitely be them - CORRECT. I also like Missouri (-3) over Baylor.

Colorado vs. Arizona -3.5 = The Wildcats beat the Buffaloes by 14 in the regular season. I think they are clearly the better team and couldn't believe that the line was so low. I don't have much else to say other than I think Colorado much struggle offensively. I think this is an easy win. INCORRECT

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt -6.5 = Vandy destroyed Ole Miss by 26 in the regular season. They are coming off of a 22-point win over Georgia, and I can't figure out for the life of my why this line isn't bigger. I don't see any reason why Vandy doesn't give us a repeat performance for an easy win. CORRECT

I'm going to try to hit a sweetheart teaser because the lines work so well:

NC State vs. UNC -1 = Bringing this line down to one is what makes this so damn appealing. The Wolfpack has been playing well recently but I don't see anyway they can beat UNC. The Tarheels are smoking right now and looking to leave no doubt that they deserve a No. 1 seed in the tournament. CORRECT

Massachusetts +11.5 vs. St. Bonaventure = UMass has just been playing really well the last few games and I don't see this one turning into a blowout. I'm not too well versed on these two A-10 teams, but getting 11.5 after UMass beat the Bonnies outright earlier in the season sounds good to me. CORRECT

Wisconsin +12 vs. Michigan State = I usually don't like picking against the Spartans because they are such a dangerous team. However, the Badgers have been playing incredibly well as of recent and I think their tough defense will keep them in this game. INCORRECT - The Badgers cut the lead to 11 with 20 seconds left and for some reason felt the need to foul. MSU made both to make the lead 13. Wisconsin missed a three and a layup after getting the offensive rebound... a very brutal way to lose.

I'll be back later with some NBA.

There isn't much I like in the NBA tonight, because all of the bad teams are on the road playing good teams and the spreads are huge.

Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls -11 = I know this is a big spread, but I made a play against the Jazz last night and it paid off. As I said last night, Utah is an awful road team and they lost by 13 in Philly yesterday. There is no reason for them to not be dominated again tonight by the Bulls. CORRECT

Also, I like the UNDER 197 in the OKC/Charlotte game. Charlotte has trouble scoring anyway and five of the Thunder's last seven games have gone under. INCORRECT

Rodgers That

What'd we learn?

By Dan Rodgers

OK, last night was clearly an indication that I shouldn't just post a few thoughts before the games without during my usual research. On Saturday, I knew my stuff and had a fairly successful day hitting four out of five of my college basketball picks. Last night, at one point or another, every team I picked looked like they were going to cruise to an easy cover. Let's review...

The Orlando Magic defense was embarrassed last night, giving up 100 points to a Bobcats team that accomplished the feat for just the fifth time this season. Charlotte scored 13 points over their season average, and while Charlotte on average gives up 100 points per game, they only gave up 84 to a Magic team that scored nearly 10 points below their average. The difference was mainly in the fourth quarter. However, we saw spurts early on in the game. Orlando was up big in the second quarter before the Bobcats went on a 12-0 run in three minutes to end the quarter. That was a huge turning point in the game because that made the halftime deficit five instead of 17. Charlotte had taken the lead by the end of the third quarter and then Orlando's defense hit a wall in the fourth, only managing a pathetic 13 points. They were outscored by 15, which was just about the difference.

Similarly, the Lakers were up seven after the first quarter, and we all once again thought we were going to cruise to an easy victory. However, a pathetic second quarter (17pts) led to a four-point halftime deficit. However, the defense picked up the slack after half and held the Pistons to nine points in the third quarter. The Lakers were once again up seven and we all assumed they had gotten their act together. However, the offense was once again pathetic in the fourth quarter (17pts) and L.A. only managed 78 points in regulation against a Pistons squad that on average gives up just under 96 points per game. That is seriously embarrassing, but what is even worse, not only did they not get their act together for OT, they lost outright also!

Last night was crazy in the NBA because in three out of the six games the underdog won outright, making the spread off in those games by 8.5 points or more. Vegas must have loved that.

NCAAB wasn't much better... I threw you North Texas, Villanova and Valparaiso...

North Texas was up 55-42 in the second half, but then they realized that they need to blow their huge lead like everyone else, and they were outscored 32-15 the rest of the game.

Villanova was actually down four at half but left no doubt in the second half and just destroyed Rutgers by 21 (the only bright spot of the night).

After sweeping Detroit in the regular season, the Crusaders held a 31-25 lead early in the second half. However, Detroit took the lead after an 11-0 run, and while Valparaiso cut the lead to one possession, the Titans eventually pulled away for a 20-point victory and a NCAA berth.

The Big East tourney is the main attraction right now, so I'll be back later with some thoughts on the early games today.

Let's hope for a better day than yesterday!

Rodgers That

Consistency is key

By Dan Rodgers

I have class like right now and I've had class all day so this one is the definition of a quickie...

Once again, we have the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons playing tonight. Since both are at home, against the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively, we are getting value. These teams just suck wherever they play.

Orlando Magic -9 @ Charlotte Bobcats = The Bobcats have no one to matchup with Dwight Howard in the middle, and we all know that Orlando is one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA from beyond the arc. This one shouldn't even be close at halftime.

Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 @ Detroit Pistons = The Lakers are having an off season compared to their track record, but they are still among the best in the NBA with All-World guard Kobe Bryant. No reason why L.A. doesn't take this one easily against a completely over-matched Pistons squad.

Nothing tickles me too much in NCAAB, but a few picks are: Villanova, North Texas, and Valparaiso.

Enjoy the games while I'm in class!

Rodgers That

Picking Dirty

By Dan Rodgers

So I didn't post anything the past two days. However, I did pick the Pacers and Grizzlies (both hit), however, I got screwed by a 41-point 4th quarter by the Jazz who scored eight points in the final 20 seconds.

A basic rule of thumb I go by in the NBA: Charlotte, Detroit and New Orleans are terrible. I know Detroit has 12 wins compared to only four my Charlotte, but the Pistons are awful and always look to go against them when they are on the road or facing a damn good team (like Memphis). The Bobcats are just the worst team in the NBA bar none. They give up 15 more points per game than they score, which means the odds are in your favor to go with the other team. Plus, the good part is that the Bobcats often fall far behind early and don't fight back so you can coast to an easy win. The Hornets tend to fight at home, but Indiana is way better and a matchup nightmare. However, against a mediocre team, the Hornets tend to put up a good fight at home but often get blown out on the road.

As for NCAAB yesterday, I loved Memphis early. That game was a blowout as expected. I also liked UConn, and Jim Calhoun didn't let us down in his first game back. Unfortunately, I was on the losing side of only the second home loss of the season for South Florida. Beating West Virginia and clinching the fourth seed and a double-bye in the Big East tournament would have all but locked up their ticket to the NCAA tournament but they disappointed big time.

There wasn't too much I liked the rest of the day... But let's move on to today...

Kentucky -5 @ Florida = The No. 1 ranked team plays their final game of the season today and they look to become the third team since 1956 to go undefeated in the SEC. They handled the Gators easily last time and Florida has lost their last two. I think Kentucky will get it done and cover the five points. I'm not crazy about them but definitely confident. CORRECT

Michigan -5 @ Penn State = This line puzzles me... Michigan beat the Nittany Lions at home by 18 points. Once again, I don't feel that Penn State deserves 13 points just for being at home. Also, State has lost their last three, including a 24-point beat-down at Purdue. I think Michigan should take care of business again, especially because they are still fighting for first place in the Big Ten. CORRECT

Ohio State @ Michigan State -3.5 = The Spartans beat the Buckeyes by 10 in Ohio and I think they can sweep the season series. State controls their own destiny, if they win, they win the Big Ten regular season title. INCORRECT - MichSt was up nine at half and lost outright.

Siena @ Loyola Maryland -6.5 = Loyola is having a great season and they swept the regular season series with wins by seven and 11. I see no reason for them to not win this game convincingly as well. CORRECT

Purdue @ Indiana -6 = The Hoosiers won at Purdue by 17. Now Indiana is at home and I think we are getting a bargain with a line of six. Purdue is a decent team and they definitely fight until the very end, but Indiana is coming off of a huge 15-point win over Michigan State and I think they follow that up with another big win. CORRECT

NBA

I'm not currently crazy about any games, but I'm going to re-evaluate later and I might add something.

UPDATE:

New York Knicks +2 @ Boston Celtics = So I didn't want to make a play and I just wanted to watch this great game. If I would have done something, I would have teased the Knicks. It was a great game so I hope you caught it. DIDN'T PICK

New Jersey Nets -4.5 @ Charlotte Bobcats = So I ended up deciding that the Nets are a decent enough road team to take care of business. With Lopez back to playing in the paint, they'll take care of business. INCORRECT - The Nets dominated the second half after an iffy first half, they were covering but a couple of late buckets allowed Charlotte to kick the backdoor wide open... What a waste of a 57-point performance by D-Will... also, the Bobcats went 37/39 from the charity stripe, the Nets missed 11 FTs... it happens

Other Notes: I like the Rockets to win at home (the spread is around -1), and I also think the 76ers will give Chicago all they can handle and should cover as well at home (spread is around +4).

Enjoy the games for the rest of the night.

Rodgers That