Super Bowl Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - The Rematch

We are less than two hours before kickoff of Super Bowl XLVI and Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski is officially active for the game, surprise-surprise...

This is the first Super Bowl in the history of the sport between two former Super Bowl MVPs. Tom Brady will try for the second time to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QBs to win the Super Bowl four times. This is also Brady's second try against the Giants (Super Bowl XLII).

New York offense:

The Giants' passing attack is just as explosive and difficult to defend as New England's; however, New York has a respectable running game that I expect them to utilize. I will be looking for Ahmad Bradshaw to have a big game because he is small, quick and elusive. He should be able to eclipse 100 total yards between rushing and receiving out of the backfield. If Brandon Jacobs doesn't start the game and show effectiveness, look for Coughlin to focus on Bradshaw. Jacobs is an incredible back when he runs downhill and straight ahead, but he is useless when he dances around and takes time on his cuts.

The Eli Manning-led passing attack is as good as any in the league because of the depth the Giants have at receiver. They lack a truly effective receiving tight end (unlike the Pats), but with Nicks, Cruz, Manningham and Bradshaw's ability out of the backfield, the Giants have numerous play-makers that New England's porous defense needs to account for today. Eli Manning has proved this season that he should be considered a top quarterback in the NFL, but he can cement his place as an elite QB with a victory.

New England offense:

The Pats are the same offensive team that they have been, with the exception of replacing Randy Moss with Rob Gronkowski. They rely on quick passes and timing. An effective way to get Brady out of his element is to get pressure with your four-man rush and clog the passing lanes by playing zone coverage. The Giants have one of the best defensive lines I've ever seen, and should be able to get pressure similar to that of Super Bowl XLII. However, unfortunately for the Giants, there might not be a better coach in the business at pregame planning and in-game adjustments than Bill Belichick. BB is even better when he gets to rematch a team he lost to earlier that season.

The Pats do an excellent job of using the pass to open up the run and are not afraid to rely on Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis if he is finding running room. The Law Firm is a big back and he doesn't fumble, which makes him an excellent complement to a Belichick-coached team. The Giants can't over-compensate for the pass or Green-Ellis will run all over them.

Recap:

I think the Giants will get a formidable amount of pressure on Brady and cause some problems. I also think that even though New England has the worst defense in the NFL, Belichick will have them ready. A lot of people think this one is going way over the total (53.5), but remember the total of the game played earlier this season was only (44, all scored in the second half).

I said it earlier and I'll say it again, if the Giants make the Super Bowl - they'll win it. I will stick by that.

Prediction:
New York Giants 27 (+3) New England Patriots 23

Enjoy the final game of the NFL season.

Rodgers That

NFL Championship Weekend

By Dan Rodgers

Well, we're down to the Final Four and while many could have predicted the AFC's participants before the season started, not many people had the 49ers and Giants in mind to be the NFC's final two participants.

The spreads for both games have been moving since they were first released last week. However, I don't think it has changed my opinion on them. If you aren't listening to me by now, you probably never will. However, if you are, you are experiencing quite a successful post-season thus far. I am 7-1 ATS, including 4-0 this past weekend.

I'll admit I was having a tough time reading the games when the lines were first released. I have a better feel now, and you'll find my thoughts below.

Early Game
(2) Baltimore Ravens (+7) at (1) New England Patriots

This is clearly a game between two polar opposites. The Ravens love to play defense, and the Pats love to play offense. However, the Patriots put together a very complete game last week in their 45-10 drubbing of the Denver Broncos. The Ravens didn't look very good on offense against the Texans second-ranked defense, but didn't commit any penalties or turnovers. Baltimore should obvious find more success against an abysmal New England defense, but their lack of execution leaves me wanting more.

I think Ravens fans need to recognize a lack of execution and stop putting the sole blame for the offensive woes on O-Coordinator Cam Cameron. If the Ravens can execute today, the Pats will struggle to stop them due to their balance. With a top running back and receivers that can stretch the field, we will likely see an offensive battle in this game. I think there is no question that the Ravens should cover, pending a crazy amount of turnovers, penalties, or injuries (of course), but coming away with a trip to Indianapolis will solely rely on the offensive execution.

Of course, if the Ravens can't stop the unique combination of Welker and Gronkowski, it will take at least 30 points to beat Brady and the Pats. However, I have faith that Baltimore can at least slow down Brady. The key to stopping Brady is getting pressure with the front four. If the Ravens can effectively rush Brady with their d-line and drop seven into coverage, it will clog the passing lanes and should frustrate Brady. We've seen evidence of this against the Steelers this season and the Jets in the playoffs last season.

Unfortunately, I think the Patriots are too good on offense and their defense will step up in this big game. It should be a close one though, and it would not at all surprise me if Baltimore won outright.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 27 (+7)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2)

I'm much less confident on this game. I think that the 49ers will win, but if the Giants do, they'll win the Super Bowl. Both teams have very good defenses, but both offenses have played very well as of recent. In my opinion, the Giants are the hottest team in the playoffs, but the 49ers are the most complete team.

The Giants defensive line is the best I've ever seen. All of the players: Tuck, Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, etc. are all strong, athletic, and fast off the line. They are the reason the Giants are so successful. If they can't get pressure, any above average quarterback should be able to pick apart their mediocre secondary. However, the 49ers love to play physical and should give the Giants d-line all they can handle. San Fran likes to run the ball should have no problem using multiple tight end sets to help block.

There is nothing special about the 49ers offense. They like to methodically move the ball down the field, focusing on the run game. I see this game being decided by offense because both defenses should find success. I think Eli Manning is clearly the superior QB, but Alex Smith has been playing well and doesn't make many mistakes.

Like I said earlier, I think the 49ers will win, but wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pulled it out. I'm picking San Fran to cover, but the real play with this game is teasing the Giants to +8.5.

Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 23 (-2) New York Giants 20

Money teaser: 6.5-tease Ravens +13.5, OVER 43.5 (Bal/NE), Giants +8.5 (5 units)

Enjoy what should be another fantastic weekend of playoff football. Make sure you set your NFL Playoff Fantasy Challenge lineups!

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) Houston Texans (+9) at (2) Baltimore Ravens

This is a very interesting game, and fortunately for the Ravens, they get to face a very talented Texans team whose without their starting quarterback and best defensive player. Even so, Houston was able to dominate last week against Cincinnati. I think the Texans will need to get their running game going if they want to have any success. Arian Foster and Ben Tate combined for 190 against a good Cincy defense, and they'll need to find their holes to open up the passing game for Yates. The Ravens typically feast on rookie quarterbacks, but they don't usually face rookies with such a strong supporting cast.

The Ravens offense will need to make sure they have a balanced attack and don't forget to get their best offensive player, Ray Rice, the touches he deserves. The Texans must pressure Joe Flacco and force him into check downs to make sure they don't get burned by Torrey Smith or Lee Evans. Stretching the defense will be a key for Ray Rice to find some running room.

I think if Ray Rice gets 17-23 carries and a few catches, the Ravens should be balanced enough to move the ball against Houston. While I don't see the Ravens shutting Houston down, unless Haloti Ngata and the Ravens defense can't contain Foster, I think Baltimore will pull this one out and makes their second AFC Championship game in four years. This will be a close one though.

Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 20 Houston Texans 16 (+9)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants (+8) at (1) Green Bay Packers

The Packers are, by record, the NFL's best team this season, and they were a let down against Kansas City away from going 16-0. This game is a rematch of a game in New York earlier this season. The game was before the Giants hit their stride, but they did keep the game close before losing by a field goal.

The Giants pass rush is what makes their defense so effective. They should be able to get pressure on Rodgers, and while he is a good scrambling QB, it will have some impact. New York's run defense is fairly irrelevant because the Packers don't run much, but they have to make sure they don't let Ryan Grant or James Starks break a long run. The Packers offensive effectiveness will be determined by the protection. If the Giants rush is ineffective, this game will probably turn into a blowout. However, like I said earlier, don't expect that to happen.

You can throw away the regular season statistics for the Giants offense because they are playing extremely well. They rushed for over 170 yards and Eli Manning threw three touchdowns in last week's blowout win against Atlanta. They should find success against a weak Packers defense. However, Green Bay's defense does have a knack for making big plays when it matters most, so expect them to come up with a big stop late in the game.

I think this will be an exciting game and the Giants should be able to stick with the Pack most of the way.

Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 30 New York Giants 23 (+8)

Enjoy what looks to be an awesome weekend of the Divisional Round Playoffs.

Rodgers That

NFL: Let's Vent

By Dan Rodgers

Are the New York Giants serious? Eli Manning throws three interception and the team fumbles three times, losing two of them.

They were playing the Seattle Seahawks. Let us review this. Don't even try to tell me the interception in the red zone wasn't Manning's fault. He led Victor Cruz way too much and Cruz was forced to reach out for the ball. There was still over a minute left and they were inside the 10; there was no reason to not run the ball.

Regardless, New York should have killed them because the Seahawks are terrible away from home; not to mention they had to travel to the east coast for an early game! This had all the makings for the Giants to kill them and of course, they suck. Seattle has gotten killed on the road and had five sacks in four games, but today they had three on Manning.

I should have been smarter and realized that 10 people, including myself, picked the Giants for survivor and I should have stayed away. I admit, I was probably a bit lazy and picked New York because they were the blatantly obvious choice, but the thing with me is that I'm smarter than that. Usually. Today I wasn't and it cost me big time. I hate the Giants now...

On to the Jaguars... This game went relatively how I expected. The Jags scored more than I thought, but when it came down to it, I was still in perfect position to win. Blane Gabbert fumbled while driving for a potential win (they were at midfield), and Cincy tried to run the ball out but turned it over on downs with like 10 seconds left. The Jags completed a pass and did the whole b.s. lateral thing to try to make something happened, and someone on the Bengals picked up the loose ball and ran it in for a TD. You should be able to guess why I'm upset that the total score went from 43 points to 50.

Lastly, I should have been smarter with the Houston game. They beat Pittsburgh last week which was huge for them and they are playing an Oakland team that is pissed about under-performing at home against New England and is emotional about the passing of Al Davis.

Early games: 4-4 ATS 5-3 SU

UGH.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 2: Games to watch

By Dan Rodgers

Last week I was 2-1 in my "games to watch" predictions. This week, we have two great games and one interesting one.

Game 1

Ravens at Bengals - This game is very interesting because the Bengals played like crap in the first half last week and their defense got absolutely destroyed by the Pats. The Ravens also didn't look too good, but a pathetic Jets offense couldn't take advantage. The Ravens could to anything in the running game, so look for them to try and establish that early on. The Bengals should try and do what the Jets couldn't and attack a vulnerable Baltimore seconary. Look for the Cinci receiving core to have another good day if they can give Carson Palmer any protection. Baltimore's favored in this game, but I like Cinci to win straight up at home.

My Prediction: Bengals (+2.5) 27 Ravens 24

Game 2

Pats at Jets - This game is much more important to the Jets than the week one game against Baltimore. They face New England at home in an early season division game. The Pats came out last week and lit up the Bengals supposedly solid secondary. The Jets cornerbacks (minus Revis) got completely owned last week by an above average Ravens receiving core. Cromartie and rookie Kyle Wilson will have to step up against a Pats passing offense that boasts Randy Moss (to be stranded on Revis Island), Wes Welker, Julian Edelman (Welker Jr.), and the best tightend trio in the NFL (Crumpler, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski). It will be interesting to see how the Jets' secondary plays in this game. Also, look for Mark Sanchez to try and open up the field a bit more against another suspect secondary.

My Prediction: Pats (-3) 23 Jets 16

^What I think will happen, what could happen?: Jets (+3) 17 Pats 16

Game 3

Giants at Colts - Oddly enough, the Colts have already been defeated in the 2010 season, while the Giants look to go 2-0. This is a battle of the Manning brothers and you better believe that Peyton is in F.U. mode. It doesn't matter that this game is against

his little brother, the Colts will bring it beyond anything we've seen from them recently. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Texans, the Colts need to step up and show everyone who's boss. The Giants simply got unlucky, and they're not that good. They will probably try to run the ball given what Arian Foster did against Indy last week. It probably won't work since they focused on that this week in practice; hopefully that means Nicks gets a lot of touches for my fantasy team. Regardless, Peyton easily takes this matchup and the Colts get back in the win column.

My Prediction: Colts (-5) 38 Giants 23

Enjoy another wonderful Sunday in the NFL, and be sure to root for my fantasy!

Rodgers That

Elite QBs, not yet Joe

By Dan Rodgers

ESPN Analyst John Clayton came out with a list of the NFL QBs that he thinks are on the elite level, and I disagree with a lot of them. Let us break down the list and see where we stand.

AFC

• Tom Brady, New England Patriots
• Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
• Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
• Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
• Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Tom Brady, unfortunately, is a three-time Super Bowl champ. So clearly, he should be on the list. However, Joe Flacco has two years of experience on a team that is built primarily on the rushing game. This will be an important year for him because of all the weapons he now has on offense (i.e. Anquan Boldin/Donte Stallworth). Flacco is just too inexperienced to be given a crown yet, sorry bud.

No one will argue with Peyton Manning, end of story. Carson Palmer is on the edge for me because he is so talented, but he has yet to reach the next level. He hasn't done anything in the playoffs or put up 4,000 yard and 30 touchdown seasons every year, so this will be a make or break year for him. Top 10 yes, but not yet elite.

Phillip Rivers is definitely one of the best young QBs in the league, and if I had a top 10 list he would be on it. However, if I had an elite list, he wouldn't be on it. Roethlisberger has to be on it because he is a two-time Super Bowl champ. Schaub is a tough one though. I love this kid and all the amazing work he did for my fantasy football team last season, but given a few wasted seasons in Atlanta and then back to back injuries in 2008 and 2009, he has only put together one amazing season (4,700 yards and 29 TDs). If he can do it again, and again, he should be on the list but not yet.

NFC

• Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
• Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings
• Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
• Eli Manning, New York Giants
• Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
• Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
• Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Drew Brees is amazing and just continues to put down all of the critics, I absolutely love him. Favre, even though he screwed the Jets over, I can definitely admit is a great QB and most definitely elite when he is on the field. McNabb is someone you might not think about, but he only had one losing season his entire career in Philly and that should tell you something. He is a playmaker with his legs and his arm and will possibly bring some life to a dead Washington team.

Eli Manning I'm not really a fan of, but I do give him credit because he beat the Pats in the Super Bowl when people were talking about that New England team being the best of all-time. Not elite yet though...sorry. Aaron Rodgers is the man. He is a gun-slinger and reminds me of Favre. He is a playmaker and is only getting better, sitting on the bench behind Favre for a few seasons couldn't have hurt. He definitely belongs on the list.

Ever since Romo took over in Dallas he has done nothing but put up very impressive statistics, for an undrafted free agent nonetheless. The only question mark that could leave him off the list is what has he done for me lately...in the playoffs. He took it one step further last season and I think he belongs on the list because Dallas is a contender with him at QB.

Matt Ryan, see Joe Flacco.

So, in conclusion I've decided that John Clayton should be much tougher in his decisions and not just give it out to make sure the list if full. Just because a QB belongs in the top 10 doesn't mean he is elite.

Elite QBs:
AFC - Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger
NFC - Brees, Favre, McNabb, Rodgers, Romo

Top 10:
1. Manning - The Best
2. Brees - Showed he can play with and beat the best
3. Favre - Who knows how long he'll play
4. Brady - Shown can be beaten...and embarrassed
5. Roethlisberger - Gosh he is ruining his career
6. McNabb - Sucks he hasn't won a Super Bowl...and got traded to Washington
7. Rodgers - Arguably the best young QB in the league
8. Romo - Proved he can win the playoffs...kind of
9. Rivers - Can't take over a game...yet
10. Palmer - This is his year...or he could be done

Rising: Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers

Falling: Favre, Brady, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Palmer

Rodgers That

NFL Week 14: The Down and The Dirty *mini edition

By Dan Rodgers

Don't worry everyone, this should be the last mini edition.

Week 14

The Down

This could be the toughest week I have had yet involving the distribution of the award because of the ridiculously bad play by numerous players this week. Rams replacement QB Keith Null threw for five interceptions (which seems to be somewhat of a fad this season), the Chiefs wonderful new QB Matt Cassel threw for four intercepti0ns, and Bucs rookie Josh Freeman threw for three interceptions and only 93 yards. against the Jets stifling defense. These three quarterbacks were remarkably terrible this past week and deserve to be recognized for their wrongdoing. I couldn't pick just one for the award so I'll let you decide for yourself.

*Other notable terrible performances -
Steven Jackson(STL): 18 carries for 39 yards
Carnell Williams(TB): 11 carries for 14 yards

The Dirty

There were also three offensive players that caught my eye. Two of the efforts were in a losing manner but that doesn't take anything away from it. On Sunday night, Eli Manning exploded on the Eagles defense for 391 yards and three touchdowns. During the one o'clock games, Andre Johnson recorded 11 receptions for 193 yards and two scores. Not to be over shadowed, Brandon Marshall broke the single game reception record with 21, to go along with 200 yards and two scores of his own. Okay, I lied, there is one more person who deserves some recognition: the opposition to Eli, DeSean Jackson. He only recorded six receptions, but logged 178 yards and a touchdown. However, on top of this he added a 72-yard punt return touchdown.

*Other notable downright crazy performances -
Brian Orakpo(WAS): 5 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble
Dashon Goldson(SF): 6 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception

Rodgers That