NFL Week 5: keep it going

By Dan Rodgers

I feel like the lines this year have been tougher than in recent years. I've been picking in my pool for over four years now, and it just seems like there are a ton more close spreads this season. It doesn't seem to matter as I had an average (in my opinion) week ATS but owned SU.

I'm going to give you the disclaimer now: At some point, like everybody else, I will probably have a terrible week... Just remember, there's always next week (or next season)

KC/Ind 2.5 Indy is still terrible and KC started to score last week KC SU
Ari/Min 3 AP should go off today, I expect some points
Phi 3/Buf Philly needs this one badly, they're down but not out
Oak/Hou 5 A bit high considering Oakland as shown life, but I like Schaub at home
NO 7/Car Higher than expected considering Carolina has shown they can score, but Brees is too good
Cin/Jax PK Incredible value with Cincy here, they are 3-1 and playing a weak Jags offense, love the under
Ten/Pit 3 I know they're beat up, but only three points for Pittsburgh AT HOME...
Sea/NYG 10 Seattle has proved they can play at home, but flying across the country for an early game will be tough SURVIVOR PICK (4-0)
TB/SF 3 Don't like this game but I like WalterFootball and he likes Tampa TB SU
NYJ/NE 7 I might be a homer but I think we always try to get up for the Pats and this is a big spread for a division game- Jets offer tremendous value for the line pays +100 and SU is +290 NYJ SU
SD 4.5/Den Denver's home advantage is unlike most teams (a la Seattle) Look for the upset Denver SU
GB 7/Atl This spread is big because Atlanta blew a big lead at Seattle and Green Bay destroyed Denver, I think the Pack is a little overvalued here but they are still amazing
Chi/Det 6 Chicago likes blowing leads and Detroit likes coming back...

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Total: 37-26-1 ATS (59%) 46-18 SU (72%)

You see that right above? Jump on the bandwagon while there is still room...

SURVIVOR: To be honest, the Giants are the only viable option this week. Even if I could use a team I've already used, I would go with the Giants. Even though Seattle has been playing fairly well in their last two, both have been at home. Seattle is 0-2 ATS on the road, getting outscored 17-57. The Giants offense has been playing incredibly well and I don't think Seattle can give them enough problems on defense to threaten the cover, let alone the win. 21 of 35 have been knocked out of my pool, 14 the first week and seven between the last two weeks.

Week 5 bold prediction: We will still have at least two defeated teams (0-5)

Also, I'm going to start posting this on Friday or Saturday so you actually have time to read and possibly use this gold that I'm posting. Look for a midweek video on fantasy. I'm 4-0 in two leagues and 3-0-1 in another...

Follow me on Twitter: @dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 2: Picks but No Video

By Dan Rodgers

So, there is no video this week because I didn't get one done before Friday and now I'm in Jersey. My girlfriend and I drove to my sister's place in Lancaster yesterday and came to Jersey today for my cousin's engagement party. Thankfully, the Jets are home this week and a bunch of us are going to the game. I'm going to try to get a video of the inside of the stadium.

Below are my picks, just like last week: The bold team is my pick and the favored team has the number (spread) next to them.

Chi/NO 6.5 Saints straight up
KC/Det 8.5
Jax/NYJ 9
Ari/Was 4
Bal 7/Ten
Sea/Pit 14.5 SURVIVOR PICK* (1-0)
GB 11.5/Car
TB/Min 3 Bucs SU as well
Cle 2/Ind
Oak/Buf 3.5
Dal 4/SF 49ers SU as well
Cin/Den 3.5 Don't touch
SD/NE 7 Pats SU
Hou 3.5/Mia
Phi 2.5/Atl Don't touch
Stl/NYG 6

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU, Last week was rough because it was the first week after a lockout shortened offseason. I think around .500 is decent enough.

Games with notes next to them mean I wouldn't touch the game or I picked the underdog to cover so I'm specifying if I also like them to win (straight up/SU) as well.

I'm going to start giving explanations on the Jets games because I try to not let fanhood get in the way. This week it's simple, I think they'll score like they did last week but give up less because the Jags offense isn't as good as Dallas'.

*Keep in mind survivor pick is strictly who will win the game, no spreads involved:
Pittsburgh was an easy survivor pick because of last week. They were absolutely embarrassed by the Ravens and there won't be a game they are more prepared for than this one. If they lose this week they should just forfeit the season. The 49ers crushed them last week and if they couldn't move the ball against San Fran, they definitely won't be able to against Pittsburgh. Other considerations were the Jets (but I'm trying to not pick them) and the Lions (I want to know if they are for real).

I like to use most of the advice from WalterFootball, who recommends that you do a few things while picking your survivor team:

1. Never take a road team (That's why I'm not considering Packers/Ravens this week)
   
2. Never take a team in a divisional game
3. Never take a bad team
4. Never choose an underdog (as determined by the spread)

He also says to never save teams and always take your best option. If everyone listened to him, everyone would be taking the Steelers this week because they are the clear-cut best option. Hopefully, they'll take care of business and we'll see upsets elsewhere to knock some people out. Last week, out of the 35 people in my pool, 14 were knocked out. Cleveland and Kansas City were the teams that did (or maybe didn't do) damage last week, so who will be that team this week?

Three potentials: 49ers (+4), Chargers (+7), Rams (+6)

Week 2 Bold Prediction: Three (6 total) teams in the AFC East and NFC North will be 2-0

Last but not least, I went 5-2 in my seven fantasy leagues. One I lost, it's a B.S. one that I didn't attend draft and it's only for fun and the other is because the dumb experts told me to start Deangelo Williams over Ben Tate. I lost by 8 points, and Tate had 11 more points than Williams. But, I'm not here to make excuses, business will be taken care of this week.

Rodgers That