March Madness is only a few minutes away...
Instead of taking the time that I have to type up reports of why I like which teams, I'm just going to link my Yahoo! bracket up to this site so you can look at it. Then, after this weekend's games I will criticize my picks and defend myself. And predict next weeks games and stand by any picks I still like.
Dan Rodgers' bracket
Toddy P.'s bracket
Leatherworld's bracket
Dr. Jekyll's bracket (not linked yet)
I was watching the Purdue at Mich St. game last night, and really thought about how this year in college basketball differs from any other? What are the new trends we are beginning to see? Why is it that teams such as New Mexico and UNLV are climbing up in the top 25 yet the current National Champion, UNC, is under .500 in the ACC?
First, let's take a look at a couple of teams that are no where near what was expected.
UNC:
They started off this season unimpressive but still not terrible. Up until the New Year, this team had only suffered three losses, all of which were against ranked opponents (Syracuse, Kentuckty, and Texas). The major turning point moment of their season was the overtime loss to the College of Charleston. This was their last game before conference play and they have since gone 2-6 in the ACC. Tonight's game against Duke may be the only chance the Tarheels have to turn their season around. Even if UNC pulls off the "W" they would still need to make a run in the ACC tournament to make a good argument for them to deserve a tournament bid. My advice: Forget this season ever happened and rebuild. It's very difficult to hold onto greatness when you lose three top caliber seniors, Hansborough, Lawson and Green. No shot this year, better luck next.
Vanderbilt:
I am more than happy to see the Commodores playing at this level. They have chocked the SEC and are preparing for a great shot to make a run in the tournament. It's all about who gets hot at the right time and there are not many teams as hot as Vanderbilt. The key victories of their season have been the two victories over Tennessee. They have won by a combined 28 points and have used these two games to launch themselves into the top 25. The big test for this team still remains. On Feb. 20, Kentucky comes to town. Vandy needs to come into this game with confidence and quickness. Hit Kentucky in the mouth early and often and you can get ready for a big run in the NCAA tourny.
What makes this year different?
The term upset has taken on a different meaning. By this, I meant aht the field is starting to even out. Most conferences are now fairly close from top to bottom in talent. When March Madness rolls around, look for the seeding to matter far less than ever before. A 12 seed over a five will seem like nothign this year. I am going all out and will say that this year will be the first that a 16 seed will overtake a one. Call me crazy but you heard it here first.
New Trends.
Consistency is lacking. The reason this is that too many teams are now depending on one or two players to carry them. Teams are beginning to shoot the three more and more causing games to depend entirely on shooting percentage. The few teams that are good all around and deep are going to be the ones left standing in the end. To all those other teams, do me a favor and go back to the fundamentals. Scottie Reynolds - learn to pass the ball. I blame the loss to Georgetown entirely on you and your uncanny ability to hand the ball off to the other team. Take fewer and better shots and give your teammates a chance. The other trend I am starting to see is also a fundamental error. Focus on foul shots. I have never seen anything like this. So many teams are losing games because they are shooting below 65 percent from the free throw line. This has a lot to do with why tournament upsets will be in extreme abundance this year.
If you haven't noticed yet, NCAA baketball has been turned on its head and will not fix itself anytime soon. Look forward to the most exciting tournament in years.
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By Toddy. P
As I promised, my weekly NFL preview will highlight the great games, the sure things, and my own fantasy watch list.
My games to watch this week are Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh and
The
The Bengals are undefeated in the division and are showing no signs of slowing down. Carson Palmer has finally stepped up to his true potential following that devastating knee injury. Cedric Benson has proven he is not just a talentless thug. He can actually run the football and really well. He has run for 837 yards and 6 touchdowns. Even more impressive is the teams he has ran well against. He rushed for 237 yards in two victories over the Ravens and 189 against the Bears. Not only have the Bengals been winning games, but they are doing so without having to score 50 points a game. Their defense has been shocking to the point where they are only allowing 16.9 points per game on average.
The Steelers started off nothing like you would expect from the Super Bowl champions. Troy Polamalu went down with a knee injury week 1 and missed the next four games. In the first three games, the Steelers barely snuck by the Titans, lost to the Bears and then again to the Bengals. Since then, they have won 5 straight, and are back to their normal
This game is crucial for both teams. If the Bengals were to win, they would not only be leading the division but they will have swept the
The
The Eagles offense has been arguably one of the most inconsistent in the NFL. I just don’t understand how one week they didn’t get in the endzone against
The Chargers are similarly inconsistent all around. The real game plan for them is 3 step drops for Philip Rivers and a quick release. The Eagles like to send chaotic blitz packages and constantly pack 8 into the box. If River’s can manage to get the ball out to Sproles quickly and efficiently, they should be able to control the pace of this game. Vincent Jackson won’t be much of a factor paired up against Samuel, so look for quick screens and short passes all game. The Chargers are ranked 5th in the league and are getting healthy. Don’t expect them to give up much in any form.
I expect this to be the most exciting games of the week. Both of the teams are more than capable on scoring on the big plays. All 6 of DeSean Jackson’s TDs have came from atleast 50 yards out so I expect nothing less. Everyone knows what Darren Sproles can do in the open field so this will come as no surprise. My thoughts are that the Eagles don’t have an answer for Sproles and he runs for 1 TD and receives 2 more.
Sure Things against the spread:
Fantasy Predictions:
Start 'Em
Drew Brees against the lack of defense in
Ray Rice against
Sit 'Em
Mike Sims-Walker. David Garrard will have no time to throw against the Jets D and no time means minuscule catches. He better hope for some YAC if he wants any production at all. Good Luck.
Back from the dead, it’s Toddy P. I’ve been away but now I’m back to stay. My favorite time of the year is fast approaching so I’ll shed some light upon this chaotic, exotic, and quite possibly orgasmic game we know as college hoops.
Just so you have a grasp of who the men in suits are placing their bets on, I’ll give you the ESPN/USA Today Poll:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6. Villanova
7. Purdue
8. Duke
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20. Georgia Tech
21.
22.
23.
24. Clemson
25.
I have to agree with the unanimous decision that the Jayhawks are the huge favorite to win big this year. With Hansbrough out of the picture, Cole Aldrich is on a fast track to be the best big man in the country. Sherron Collins averaged 18.9 pts/game last season and will not slow down. The addition of freshman Xavier Henry, Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson make this team knee deep with natural talent.
Overall, I agree with the preseason top 25 as it is shown, with maybe a few tweaks here and there. It’s hard to argue with the top 5. UNC could honestly put together a team of 73 year old, WWII vets with Alzheimers and Roy Williams would have them in the final four.
The rest of the board seems fairly steady but a few things to notice are the big conferences at hand. The Big East runs the table with 6 teams in the Top 25, the Big Ten has 5, the ACC has 4, and the Big 12 and the SEC both have 3. The rest may have one or two at the most but are not note worthy due to a lack of strength from top to bottom.
Big East-This is probably the toughest conference to pick a winner. You have great teams like Nova, WVU, and UConn, but also the entire conference is capable of making a run. Now, I am sure I am going to take a lot of heat for this but my team to watch is
Big Ten-This conference is also very good all around.
ACC-UNC. Last year’s National Champions. Tyler Hansbrough or not the Tar Heels will continue to be there in the end.
Big 12-Kansas. My favorite to win the national championship. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldridge make this team almost unbeatable.
SEC-Now here I will be completely honest with you. I can’t give you a real answer as to who I think will win.
These are the conferences expected to be represented strongly in the tournament. Remember, these are preseason predictions so don’t give me a hard time when at the end of the season I may not have a single one right.
On that note, I am glad to be back and writing. Look forward to new posts from me, including a weekly college basketball blog, and also an NFL weekly preview. Maybe even a few more opinionated pieces here and there.
"Any American boy can be a basketball star if he grows up, up, up..."
-Bill Vaughn
San Francisco @ Arizona - MNF
I do not see San Fran keeping this too close. So for all of you who took the Cards to cover this week (-9.5), I think you are in great position to win this one. Even though the Cards don’t have too much of a defense and I love Frank Gore and his down hill power running style; the 49ers are one dimensional given their lack of ability to move the ball in the air (~200 yards per game). The Cards explosive pass offense with Fitz and Boldin, as mentioned above, and power running game with Edge and rookie Tim Hightower (7 rush td’s, where did that come from?). Anyway, given this is a divisional game, you should assume it would be relatively close, but I say a late touchdown by San Fran makes it look closer than it is.
Rodgers' Pick: Arizona 37 San Francisco 23
The 49ers are not showing much promise with the way their playing right now. That team is in a bit of turmoil right now and I am looking forward to seeing who new head coach mike Singletary will kick off the field this week. On the other side, the Cardinals have the 1st rated scoring offense in the NFL. Kurt Warner is playing like a true veteran and getting the ball to the real playmakers on that team, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. It is a divisional game so it could be a lot closer then expected, but I can't see the 49ers holding on past the first half.
Price's Pick: Arizona 34 San Francisco 17
Leatherman's Pick: Arizona 34 San Francisco 21
Rodgers is currently in New York cheering on his beloved Jets so he will not be writing his opinion for these games. (Not like it matters) We will both pick Monday Night Football tomorrow afternoon. Thanks for everyone’s support.
New Orleans at Atlanta-
Great match up between two big divisional foes. You have the consistent, elite quarterback in Drew Brees against the "looks great so far" rookie, Matt Ryan. Even more important for this game is the fact that both of these teams control their own destiny in this fierce division. The NFC South is so close that a win for either of these teams is a big statement. The defenses are very similar both giving up about 330 yards per game, give or take. The main difference here is the way they get it done on offense. The Saints air it out, averaging 314 passing ypg. The Falcons continuously pound it out on the ground with Michael Turner, who already has 794 yards throughout 8 games. Personally, I really like the Falcons offense and know they have the ability to step up and make big plays. This and home-team advantage will make my decision.
Price's Pick: Atlanta 27, New Orleans 24
Tennessee at Chicago-
Both teams playing very well so far this year and each leading their divisions. X-Factor for this game is Rex Grossman. Kyle Orton is doubtful to play with his ankle injury and we all remember over the last couple of years how inconsistent Grossman can be. The Titans defense will put him on his ass all day.
Price's Pick: Tennessee 28, Chicago 24
Jacksonville at Detroit-
The defeated Lions may actually have some hope for this game. Jacksonville have not proven themselves so far this year and they currently occupy the pit of AFC South. This game is all in the hands of the Detroit Quaterback, whether that be Dan Orlovsky or Daunte Culpepper. The Jaguars defense have been nothing but ordinary to this point, leaving the Lions a chance at their first win. This being said, it’s still the Detroit Lions.
Price's Pick: Jacksonville 17, Detroit 10
Baltimore at Houston-
Really? Can anyone actually show me a valid point as to how the Texans could actually compete with the Ravens. Not going to happen. Expect Joe Flacco to have a big day.
Price's Pick: Baltimore 24, Houston 10
Seattle at Miami-
The Seahawks might as well not even get on the plane to Miami. Chad Pennington, Ronnie Brown, and the "what the hell" wildcat offense is going to paralyze Seattle. The Seahawk defense will be back against the wall the entire game.
Price's Pick: Miami 27, Seattle 7
Green Bay at Minnesota –
Tough game to call. Aaron Rodgers hasn't put on the show that everyone expected up to this point. The Packers are 4-4. This is mainly because neither the offense nor defense have been anything more than decent. On the other hand, The Vikings have woken up from a disappointing first couple of weeks. They are also only 4-4 but at least they are moving in the right direction. Gus Frerotte has really stepped up to the plate. He may not be one of the better quarterbacks on paper, but he is still managing to win some games. His main job on the field is to give the ball to Adrian Peterson. When AP is getting 25 or more touches in a game, you should win. Especially now that he is back into his "100 yard per week" rhythm.
Price's Pick: Minnesota 27, Green Bay 21
Buffalo at New England-
Another game in which you have two different directions. The Bills have lost 3 of their last four games. They got beat at home by the Jets and absolutely demolished in Arizona. The Patriots' Matt Cassel is finally coming into his own. Both teams need this game both sitting at 5-3 in the AFC East. Just for Rodgers, Ill mention the Jets are also tied with both of them at 5-3. The X-Factor for me is the Bills overall offensive performance. Trent Edwards needs to get back on track. Marshawn Lynch may only get 15 carries a game but you have to make the most of them. He is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry giving the Bills the 28th ranked Rush in the NFL.
Price's Pick: New England 24, Buffalo 21
St. Louis at NYJ-
Just like the two teams above, The Jets need this win. Only difference being there playing the 2-6 Rams. The only problem I could see for the Jets is that Brett Favre has already thrown 12 interceptions this season. His mistakes, like all quarterbacks come from no time in the pocket. But, St. Louis has no defense from any angle and will allow big yards in the air and on the ground.
Price's Pick: NYJ 34, St. Louis 17
Carolina at Oakland-
This game is almost not worth talking about. The Panthers are having a hell of a season at 6-2. The Raiders having one they wish they could just end already at 2-6. Julius Peppers and the rest of Carolina's D-Line will be all over Jamarcus Russell. Russell should just fall into fetal position all day to avoid injury.
Price's Pick: Carolina 24, Oakland 10
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh-
The Colts are sitting at 4-4 looking up at the 8-0 Titans in the AFC South. The Steelers are a game up on the Ravens in the AFC North. Peyton is not having a bad year by any means but I expected a lot more out of him and I'm sure he did to. The Colts need to light a fire under their ass if they have any hope of catching up to Tennessee. On the other side of things, the Steelers have the 1st rated pass defense. So even though its necessary for Manning to go big, it’s not going to happen.
Price’s Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Indianapolis 21
Kansas City at San Diego-
San Diego’s Defense has been absolutely atrocious so far. But, Kansas City’s quarterback is Tyler Thigpen. Kansas City is just that bad. Plus, I still have faith in Phillip Rivers. Kansas City has the worst rated rush defense so look for Tomlinson to have a huge day.
Price’s Pick: San Diego 28, Kansas City 14
NYG at Philadelphia-
This truly is a battle in the trenches. The D-Line to pressure the quarterback the most will win. Both quarterbacks can put up numbers. Brandon Jacobs and Brian Westbrook are completely different backs but still manage the game in their own ways. This game will be decided by the defense with the most heart. Everyone make sure they are by a television come 8:15 tonight. This will be one for the ages.
Price’s Pick: Philadelphia 21, NYG 17
Alright guys, here is just a quick bit about the Ok St. @ T-Tech game that could possibly decide which team has an opportunity at the national championship. In case you didn't know, both teams are top 10 in the nation in total offensive yards and points per game. However, Ok St. has an unbelievable rush offense (Kendall Hunter/1200 yds. 11 TD) while TTech has the second best pass offense in the nation. It is most likely easier for TTech to adjust to stop the prolific rush offense of Ok St. (who averages over 270 yds. per game) then for Ok St. to stop the aerial attack of TTech who averages over 420 yards per game. Given this, I don’t think that Ok St. will be able to stop Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, and the Red Raiders.
Rodgers’ Pick: Texas Tech 34 Oklahoma State 27
Unlike Rodgers on this one, I am willing to admit that I am 100% on Texas Techs Offense’s nuts. The only thing that I am going to tell you about Ok St. is that the only solid team they have beaten to get to their beloved #9 spot in the questionable BCS standings was Chase Daniel and the Mizzou Tigers. The only other ranked team that they have played was the previously #1 Texas and lost. Remember last week the team that beat those Longhorns, THE TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS. Now I am going to force feed you my opinion of how TTU is one of the top 3 most explosive offenses in all of college football. Graham Harrell has proven that he can pass for 400 yards against any defensive unit. Texas has an elite defense, and when put to the challenge, Harrell threw for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of those touchdowns coming with 8 seconds left to win it. Michael Crabtree, the freak of nature who caught that touchdown, is an all out playmaker. I would say that this sophomore’s performance would be a factor in this game, but honestly, who can stop him.
Price’s Pick: Texas Tech 48 Oklahoma State 24
(RAPE)
Leatherman’s Pick: Texas Tech 38 Oklahoma State 20
Quote of the Post: “Hop off”
(Rodgers referring to Price being all over Michael Crabtree and Texas Tech’s nuts)
Rodgers 0-0
Price 0-0
Leatherman 0-0