This game is probably the lesser of the two...in terms of people being interested. However, this is a very intriguing match-up in my mind. Butler is probably the hottest team in the tournament having won 24 games in a row. Michigan State lost their best player in Kalin Lucas, but seem to just squeak by their opponents. They have only won one of their games by more than one possession: one took place on a game winning shot and won involved the other team missing a chance to tie the game.
Even though the spread right now is Butler by a point, but I think if they won it would be an upset. I think they will win, even though I have great respect for Tom Izzo and the Spartans. This will defnitely be another close game. It could go either way, but I just don't see how Butler can lose being on such a hot streak. Look for Matt Howard to have another huge game.
Butler 73 Mich St 69
Game Two:
(2) West Virginia vs. (1) Duke
Well, I personally am amazed because I thought Duke was clearly the worst one seed in the tournament. They are clearly playing well though. However, I think besides Butler, West Virginia may be the next hottest team having won the Big East tournament to earn their two seed. Losing their starting point guard didn't seem to phase them during their convincing win over the Kentucky Wildcats. If West Virginia is going to get their shot at whoever wins the early game, Devin Ebanks will have to have a great game.
Duke's last loss was exactly one month ago to ACC rival Maryland. That loss only seems to have motivated them because they haven't lost since. Brian Zoubek has been playing out of his mind and Nolan Smith is hoping match his late father and win the NCAA championship. I think Smith will have to have a career game in order to get past the defensive minded Mountaineers. Duke is favored by three points and I like WVU to at least push that spread if not pull the upset.
I was watching the Purdue at Mich St. game last night, and really thought about how this year in college basketball differs from any other? What are the new trends we are beginning to see? Why is it that teams such as New Mexico and UNLV are climbing up in the top 25 yet the current National Champion, UNC, is under .500 in the ACC?
First, let's take a look at a couple of teams that are no where near what was expected.
UNC: They started off this season unimpressive but still not terrible. Up until the New Year, this team had only suffered three losses, all of which were against ranked opponents (Syracuse, Kentuckty, and Texas). The major turning point moment of their season was the overtime loss to the College of Charleston. This was their last game before conference play and they have since gone 2-6 in the ACC. Tonight's game against Duke may be the only chance the Tarheels have to turn their season around. Even if UNC pulls off the "W" they would still need to make a run in the ACC tournament to make a good argument for them to deserve a tournament bid. My advice: Forget this season ever happened and rebuild. It's very difficult to hold onto greatness when you lose three top caliber seniors, Hansborough, Lawson and Green. No shot this year, better luck next. Vanderbilt: I am more than happy to see the Commodores playing at this level. They have chocked the SEC and are preparing for a great shot to make a run in the tournament. It's all about who gets hot at the right time and there are not many teams as hot as Vanderbilt. The key victories of their season have been the two victories over Tennessee. They have won by a combined 28 points and have used these two games to launch themselves into the top 25. The big test for this team still remains. On Feb. 20, Kentucky comes to town. Vandy needs to come into this game with confidence and quickness. Hit Kentucky in the mouth early and often and you can get ready for a big run in the NCAA tourny. What makes this year different? The term upset has taken on a different meaning. By this, I meant aht the field is starting to even out. Most conferences are now fairly close from top to bottom in talent. When March Madness rolls around, look for the seeding to matter far less than ever before. A 12 seed over a five will seem like nothign this year. I am going all out and will say that this year will be the first that a 16 seed will overtake a one. Call me crazy but you heard it here first.
New Trends. Consistency is lacking. The reason this is that too many teams are now depending on one or two players to carry them. Teams are beginning to shoot the three more and more causing games to depend entirely on shooting percentage. The few teams that are good all around and deep are going to be the ones left standing in the end. To all those other teams, do me a favor and go back to the fundamentals. Scottie Reynolds - learn to pass the ball. I blame the loss to Georgetown entirely on you and your uncanny ability to hand the ball off to the other team. Take fewer and better shots and give your teammates a chance. The other trend I am starting to see is also a fundamental error. Focus on foul shots. I have never seen anything like this. So many teams are losing games because they are shooting below 65 percent from the free throw line. This has a lot to do with why tournament upsets will be in extreme abundance this year.
If you haven't noticed yet, NCAA baketball has been turned on its head and will not fix itself anytime soon. Look forward to the most exciting tournament in years.
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ACC - Unfortunately, my VA Tech Hokies were not apart of this game this year but that doesn't mean that a good show wasn't put on. C.J. Spiller went to work on his Heisman case but it wasn't enough to stop Josh Nesbitt and the Yellow Jackets. Spiller had a ridiculous game, rushing for 233 yards and four touchdowns. However, Nesbitt rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown and passed for 136 yards and another touchdown. To be honest, I wasn't expecting it, but hats off for GA Tech even though I still wish it was VA Tech was apart of it. Good luck to the Yellow Jackets in, most likely, the Orange Bowl against Iowa or Penn State.
Big 12 - Well this was just an absolutely ridiculous game. It wasn't exactly the smartest play that I have ever seen a QB make, but Colt McCoy got lucky that after he rolled out and threw the ball away there was still one second left on the clock. Game winning 46-yard field goal, boom...game over and the Longhorns are going to the BCS National Championship. End of story, there is no question about it. On a personal note, even though I love McCoy, his three interceptions probably destroyed his Heisman hopes due to the stellar day that many others had. No worries, he gets his shot at a ring.
Big East - This game is the definition of a heartbreaker for Pitt. They were ahead by as many as 21 and took a touchdown lead with less than two minutes play. However, a botched snap/hold on the extra point proved to be the difference in the game as Cinci put together a great drive to win the game on the extra point. Dion Lewis' 47 carries for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns was not enough. Cincinatti, though undefeated, will most likely be playing Florida in the Sugar Bowl.
Big Ten - Ohio State already clinched their birth into the Rose Bowl against Oregon. Woo woo, congrats.
Pac-10 - Oregon defeated Oregon State two days ago to clinch the title and face Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
SEC - If you know me at all, I have been all over Alabama this entire season. This game tells you why: Bama 32 Florida 13. If you ask me, this is the only stat you need, but I will also give you that the Crimson Tide rushed for well over 200 yards which is obviously most the this season. Bama got some revenge from last year and earned their birth in the BCS National Championship game in Pasadena. Best of luck boys, you will probably face Texas. Note: Mark Ingram was responsible for 189 yards and three touchdowns, and he deserves the Heisman.
Back from the dead, it’s Toddy P. I’ve been away but now I’m back to stay. My favorite time of the year is fast approaching so I’ll shed some light upon this chaotic, exotic, and quite possibly orgasmic game we know as college hoops.
Just so you have a grasp of who the men in suits are placing their bets on, I’ll give you the ESPN/USA Today Poll:
1.Kansas
2.MichiganState
3.Texas
4.North Carolina
5.Kentucky
6.Villanova
7.Purdue
8.Duke
9.West Virginia
10.Butler
11.Tennessee
12.California
13.Washington
14.Connecticut
15.Michigan
16.Oklahoma
17.OhioState
18.Minnesota
19.Miss.State
20.Georgia Tech
21.Georgetown
22.Dayton
23.Louisville
24.Clemson
25.Syracuse
I have to agree with the unanimous decision that the Jayhawks are the huge favorite to win big this year. With Hansbrough out of the picture, Cole Aldrich is on a fast track to be the best big man in the country. Sherron Collins averaged 18.9 pts/game last season and will not slow down. The addition of freshman Xavier Henry, Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson make this team knee deep with natural talent.
Overall, I agree with the preseason top 25 as it is shown, with maybe a few tweaks here and there. It’s hard to argue with the top 5. UNC could honestly put together a team of 73 year old, WWII vets with Alzheimers and Roy Williams would have them in the final four. MichiganState was the runner-up last year and has the preseason Big Ten player of the year in junior Kalin Lucas. I’m not entirely sold on Texas and Kentucky, but I’ll have to wait and see.
The rest of the board seems fairly steady but a few things to notice are the big conferences at hand. The Big East runs the table with 6 teams in the Top 25, the Big Ten has 5, the ACC has 4, and the Big 12 and the SEC both have 3. The rest may have one or two at the most but are not note worthy due to a lack of strength from top to bottom.
Now in this next part I will give my predictions for conference champions. These are based on each team's schedule, strength of other teams in the conference, last year's performance, returning players and new additions
Big East-This is probably the toughest conference to pick a winner. You have great teams like Nova, WVU, and UConn, but also the entire conference is capable of making a run. Now, I am sure I am going to take a lot of heat for this but my team to watch is Louisville. They may be small but everyone on that team can shoot. They also have four returning senior guards and a hell of a coach in Rick Pitino. They are very capable of playing a fast-paced game and can catch all of the over-sized teams in the conference off guard.
Big Ten-This conference is also very good all around. MichiganStatewill run it. It’s really quite simple. The only team that I feel could make an argument is Michigan and State is on an entirely different level.
ACC-UNC. Last year’s National Champions. Tyler Hansbrough or not the Tar Heels will continue to be there in the end.
Big 12-Kansas. My favorite to win the national championship. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldridge make this team almost unbeatable.
SEC-Now here I will be completely honest with you. I can’t give you a real answer as to who I think will win. Kentucky is the favorite and with new coach John Calipari, why not? LSU has forward Tasmin Mitchell coming back to play another year. Five teams in this conference have all five starters returning, and three others are returning four. I have a feeling this conference will be turned on its head by the end of the year. So I ask you, Down ‘N Dirty Sports fans, who do you think might pull it off in the SEC?
These are the conferences expected to be represented strongly in the tournament. Remember, these are preseason predictions so don’t give me a hard time when at the end of the season I may not have a single one right.
On that note, I am glad to be back and writing. Look forward to new posts from me, including a weekly college basketball blog, and also an NFL weekly preview. Maybe even a few more opinionated pieces here and there.
"Any American boy can be a basketball star if he grows up, up, up..." -Bill Vaughn
