Week 12 Review, 13 Preview

By Dan Rodgers

OK, sorry this is out so late, but I can give you any number of people as proof that I had Seattle. It should also be proof that I said a few weeks ago that I was never picking Philly again.

First off, Thanksgiving started out decent and ended awfully. Even though the Pack covered with ease, my fantasy players in the game didn't accomplish much. Then, the Cowboys let the recently relentless Dolphins stick around long enough to get the cover. And at night the 49ers offense can't do anything and the Ravens only needed 16 points for the win and cover.

So I started off 1-2 ATS and 2-1 SU.

Then on Sunday, I forgot that whenever I pick the Rams, they suck... especially against the Cards. For the second time this season, the amazing Patrick Peterson had a punt return touchdown against St. Louis. This was incredibly frustrating.

Then the Jets game: they won, so I don't care...

I read the battle of Ohio game perfectly. However, due to the Browns being stupid enough to attempt a 55-yard field goal with less than two minutes left and the game tied, the Bengals almost got the push with an awesome play by AJ Green. Thankfully, he was pushed out at the 2-yardline and the Browns held Cincy to a field goal. Cleveland easily should have won the game as they outplayed Cincy the whole game, but at least I got the cover. The Houston game was easy even though Leinart got hurt and they played with their third-string quarterback. Carolina and Tennessee went back and forth, but I came out on top.

In my book, I had Atlanta at 9.5 but on here I have them at 10. That is frustrating considering the Falcons were owning Minnesota the whole game and out of no where it was a three point game. The Chicago game was just as frustrating. I don't remember Caleb Hanie sucking so much in last season's NFC championship. Of course, the Bears should have won outright but missed the cover by a point. Seattle was playing fairly well. Washington got a 50-yard bomb on third and forever. The momentum immediately shifted and Seattle was screwed.

New England and Denver were easy choices and I even got Denver SU. Pittsburgh's defense played extremely well and forced a ton of turnovers, but the offense looked really out of sync and couldn't capitalize on anything. New Orleans destroyed New York.

The covers I missed, I was fairly close and seemed to get screwed on a few instances. It was really frustrating.

Philly sucks and had to travel on a short week. Seattle is a tough place to play and Lynch absolutely owned the Philly run defense.

A few notables this week:

• The Patriots are favored by more than 20 points over the Colts, and this is only the tenth time since 1989 that a team has been a favorite of 20 or more. Favorites in the previous nine contests are 2-7 ATS. However, Indy is so unbelievably terrible I don't know if I can pick them.
  
• There are four teams favored even though they are playing a team with a better record, three of them are at home.
• 13 of the 16 games this week have a line of a touchdown or less.
• The 49ers can clinch the division this week with a win over the Rams.
• Could we have an 0-12 and 12-0 team?

A few games I think are interesting:

• I know Houston lost two quarterbacks but they are still at home. Teams that play their first game with their backup quarterback usually try to play well for them. I think they will beat Atlanta outright.
  
• I know Detroit has been struggling but I was surprised to see New Orleans favored by nine. I will definitely have to do some research that game because that is a big spread for a team in the Lions who scores a lot.
• San Francisco is coming back home and has extra rest. The defense played great against Baltimore and now they face divisional foe St. Louis. They are only favored by 13 and they should cover easy.
  
• My favorite game is Green Bay vs. New York. The Giants are clearly in their usual late-season tailspin. The Packers are still on fire and there is no reason they shouldn't win by 20, just like New Orleans did last week. For some reason, the Pack is only favored by 6.5 and I like them to cover that from the first quarter through the game.
  

I'll post my picks tomorrow before I go to the Towson vs. Lehigh game. I'm pumped for the game because it is the first meaningful game since I've been at school.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 10 Preview

By Toddy. P

As I promised, my weekly NFL preview will highlight the great games, the sure things, and my own fantasy watch list.

My games to watch this week are Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia vs. San Diego. I predict them to be the most competitive and exciting for all 60 minutes.

The Cincinnati Bengals vs. The Pittsburgh Steelers- This is my game of the week. AFC North matchups, excluding the Browns of course, always turn out to be a battle. These games are always won in the trenches. Both teams come into this at 6-2.

The Bengals are undefeated in the division and are showing no signs of slowing down. Carson Palmer has finally stepped up to his true potential following that devastating knee injury. Cedric Benson has proven he is not just a talentless thug. He can actually run the football and really well. He has run for 837 yards and 6 touchdowns. Even more impressive is the teams he has ran well against. He rushed for 237 yards in two victories over the Ravens and 189 against the Bears. Not only have the Bengals been winning games, but they are doing so without having to score 50 points a game. Their defense has been shocking to the point where they are only allowing 16.9 points per game on average.

The Steelers started off nothing like you would expect from the Super Bowl champions. Troy Polamalu went down with a knee injury week 1 and missed the next four games. In the first three games, the Steelers barely snuck by the Titans, lost to the Bears and then again to the Bengals. Since then, they have won 5 straight, and are back to their normal Pittsburgh style of football. Their ground game is not what it used to be, but is looking better every week. Rashard Mendenhall has proven he has what it takes to be the feature back. He ran for 165 yards against a stout San Diego D-line and 155 last week against Mike Nolan’s revamped Denver defense. Big Ben has been Big Ben, and Hines Ward is still Hines Ward.

This game is crucial for both teams. If the Bengals were to win, they would not only be leading the division but they will have swept the Steel City for the first time since ’98. If the Steelers win they then take over the division and have a serious momentum with a 6-game winning streak. I am going to go with the last decade on this one. Pittsburgh scores another two defensive touchdowns and wins 28-21.

The Philadelphia Eagles vs. The San Diego Chargers- Best of the afternoon games. Both teams are extremely similar and show up when they feel like it.

The Eagles offense has been arguably one of the most inconsistent in the NFL. I just don’t understand how one week they didn’t get in the endzone against Oakland yet they can put up 40 points against the Giants. DeSean Jackson may very well be the key to this team. How about this stat from NFL.com: when DeSean scores, the eagles are 4-1 averaging 32.2 points per game, but when he doesn’t they are only 1-2 averaging 19.3. The Philly defense has been better than expected but not great. They currently stand 10^th against the run and 11^th against the pass. Another key to this game for Philadelphia could be how many touches Brian Westbrook gets. This will be his first week back from the concussion.

The Chargers are similarly inconsistent all around. The real game plan for them is 3 step drops for Philip Rivers and a quick release. The Eagles like to send chaotic blitz packages and constantly pack 8 into the box. If River’s can manage to get the ball out to Sproles quickly and efficiently, they should be able to control the pace of this game. Vincent Jackson won’t be much of a factor paired up against Samuel, so look for quick screens and short passes all game. The Chargers are ranked 5^th in the league and are getting healthy. Don’t expect them to give up much in any form.

I expect this to be the most exciting games of the week. Both of the teams are more than capable on scoring on the big plays. All 6 of DeSean Jackson’s TDs have came from atleast 50 yards out so I expect nothing less. Everyone knows what Darren Sproles can do in the open field so this will come as no surprise. My thoughts are that the Eagles don’t have an answer for Sproles and he runs for 1 TD and receives 2 more. San Diego wins a close one over Philly 34-31.

Sure Things against the spread:

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington

Kansas City (+2) @ Oakland

New York (A) (-7) vs. Jacksonville

Fantasy Predictions:

Start 'Em

Drew Brees against the lack of defense in St. Louis. I wouldn’t be shocked if he throws for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. Expect huge production.

Ray Rice against Cleveland on Monday Night. In front of a national crowd, he will catch and run for possible season high numbers against the abysmal Browns.

Sit 'Em

Jason Campbell. Expect 2-3 interceptions and under 200 yards passing.

Mike Sims-Walker. David Garrard will have no time to throw against the Jets D and no time means minuscule catches. He better hope for some YAC if he wants any production at all. Good Luck.