Tebow to Jets, Why You Ask?

By Dan Rodgers

The Jets have officially traded for former Florida Gators savior Tim Tebow. I'm hearing that the Jets gave up a 2012 fourth and sixth round pick for Tim Tebow and a 2012 seventh round pick.

This move initially made zero sense to me. The Jets just gave Mark Sanchez a three-year extension to show their faith in him as the starting QB. Bringing in Tebow could have been done because the Jets want Sanchez to feel more pressure to perform instead of coasting because Mark Brunell was the second string QB. However, WR Jeremy Kerley played well last season as a rookie Wildcat QB.

Tebow needs to understand that he is not the starting QB of the New York Jets. He is a proven winner and leader, but he needs to understand this is Sanchez's team. One issue with this move is the impact it will have on the locker room. Sanchez is in the process of becoming the leader and needs to demand the respect of the team, and Tebow joining the team might hinder that process and cause Sanchez to lose some of the team that likes Tebow.

As I've said in the past, I do not like Tebow. I think he is a phenomenal athlete, leader and winner, but I think he is an absolutely terrible NFL QB. My opinion on this trade will be determined by how the Jets use Tebow during the season. If they want him to be a change-of-pace Wildcat QB, or they change him to be an H-back/tight end, I would be OK with the trade. I said before he was drafted that Tebow should be switched to another position to fully utilize his abilities and hopefully the Jets do that.

The biggest reason I dislike the trade right now is because of the issues the media will bring throughout the season. If Sanchez gets hurt, or struggles early in the season, the media and all of Tebow's followers will be calling for him to start like they did in Denver. The media could be the primary reason that this trade doesn't work out.

If Sanchez can live up to the hype and respond to the pressure by winning and the Jets use Tebow correctly, this COULD work out OK. But I have my doubts...

Not to mention, in my opinion Sean Payton getting suspended for the entire season, among the other punishments that the Saints got, is way bigger news than Tebow to the Jets.

Only time will tell if this trade isn't a bust, but all I know is that I wish the Jets were on HBO's Hard Knocks this summer.

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Saturday

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

This is a game between polar opposite teams. The 49ers are one of the few defensive teams left in the playoffs, and the best defensive team in the NFC. They face the one of the best offensive teams in the Saints. Drew Brees broke the single season record for passing yards, and the Saints are still sixth in the NFL in rushing.

San Fran is the underdog and they are playing at home. There is one key to this game for the San Fran offense: score touchdowns, not field goals. David Akers broke a ton of records this season with all of this field goals for the 49ers, but that won't fly today against the Saints. If Alex Smith can get his team in the endzone, they will definitely have a chance because of their defense. The key for the Saints defense is clearly to bend but not break, something they've done fairly well this season.

The 49ers defense has to take away the New Orleans running game. I know you would think they should focus on Brees, but the running game is something that Brees uses to be so successful. If the 49ers front four can limit the rushing attack, they should see some success in slowing down Brees. The Saints should come out with play action and assume that the 49ers defense will immediately respect the run.

I think this will be a close game at the end even if it's not throughout. The Saints will probably win because they are more experienced and come up with big plays at big times, but I like San Fran at home with the points.

Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 23 (+3.5)

Late Game
(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots (-13.5)

This is another game between two very different teams. The Patriots love to throw the ball and use that to open up the run game. The Broncos play decent defense and use a college-type option offense to run the ball well. The problem for the Broncos is they are extremely inexperienced and are about to play a team that is not injured or inconsistent on offense.

While I hate him, Tom Brady should shred this defense like he did in their regular season meeting in Denver. It took a little while for the Pats to get going, but when they did, Denver couldn't keep up with them. The problem with Denver falling behind is that they aren't built for huge comebacks. We saw them comeback down one or two possessions earlier this season, but the Pats won't let them stick around.

If Denver's defense wants to have any success they should rely on their front four or five to stop the run and devote everyone else into stopping the pass. Tom Brady will pick apart a blitz, so the most effective way to stop him is to clog to passing lanes and drop a ton of guys into zone. Brady's success is all about timing, so if you jam the receivers at the line or get into the passing lanes, he will have to adjust.

Regardless, I don't think it matters. I hate the Pats as much as anyone, and I think they are going to absolutely stomp the Broncos. Denver got lucky in their last game that it took Brady a while to get going and Denver's offense was functioning fairly well. However, they were kicking field goals and started turning the ball over. I think New England wins big, but I wouldn't be surprised if I got screwed by a backdoor cover by Tebow.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 44 (-13.5) Denver Broncos 17

Check back later today, tonight, or tomorrow morning for Sunday's picks.

Rodgers That

Tebow's Time is Up

By Dan Rodgers

Sorry for not posting my picks last week. I did tweet that I was picking the Giants, who covered easily with their win over Atlanta. I also picked Houston (win), Saints (win), and Pittsburgh (awful loss). I did post my picks through a video on YouTube, so hopefully you were able to catch that and go at least 3-1 last weekend.

Let's get to the hottest topic there is because everyone else is talking about it. Tebow. If you haven't heard me complain about him yet, get ready because it's about to come.

Tim Tebow is, in my soon-to-be professional opinion, an absolutely terrible quarterback. Please keep in mind: we aren't comparing him to me or you but to his peers. Let's start with a simple statistic that all young QBs are judged on: completion percentage. For example, Mark Sanchez is often criticized because his completion percentage isn't over 60 percent, the point where QBs are expected to be. Sanchez had a career high this season at 56.7 percent, while Tebow completed 50 percent or more in just four of the 14 games he started. That's awful, especially because if you watch him play it is evident that many of the throws he is way off on appear basic, short passes.

Before I continue, let me specify: Tim Tebow is an awful QUARTERBACK. He is a phenomenal athlete and a winner, the guy one the BCS National Championship with Florida in 2008 and the Sugar Bowl in 2009. He only lost one game each season. However, being an athlete and a college QB doesn't always translate in a successful NFL QB (note Michael Vick 2001-2006).

Now, another Tebow is unlikely to be successful in the long run is that I compare him to the Wildcat. The Wildcat package shocked the NFL, specifically the Patriots, and the Dolphins experienced a lot of success with it. However, soon other teams developed their own package and defenses wised up on how to defend it. Now, teams rarely use it and only do so in small amounts. Tebow has surprised the NFL with his ability to be fairly successful as an option quarterback in the NFL. However, other teams will bring in QBs with similar abilities and teams now have tape on how to stop Tebow (note 7-3 loss to Kansas City, one interception and 27.3 completion percentage). Tebow shocked the Steelers with his decent accuracy on deep throws, but now it appears that we've seen everything Tebow has to offer, and you should have success against Denver if you can shut down the Broncos rushing game with putting nine in the box.

Another thing that bothers me with the public's perception of Tim Tebow is how amazing he is at winning games for his team. What you all need to recognize is that the defense has played an incredibly large role in Denver's chances at staging a comeback. When Tebow brought the Broncos back in the fourth quarter against the Dolphins, Jets, Chargers and Bears, the defense did a great job and held those teams to 15 points or less to keep them in the game.

In conclusion: Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback. Tim Tebow is a good athlete and a winner. Tim Tebow will not be successful in the NFL by the 2013 season. Tim Tebow was not the first player to get on one knee and pray before, during, or after a game. Tim Tebow shouldn't get so much credit for Denver's wins. Tim Tebow will once again get destroyed by a(n unfortunately superior) New England team. (Remember, that just came from a Jets fan.)

Check back later as I get more into the NBA and college basketball. I'll also post my picks for the Divisional Round playoff games tomorrow.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 15 Christmas Miracle Part 2

By Dan Rodgers

We will start with my team for Part 2. The Jets were in prime position to make the playoffs after needing help, yet again. Just like two seasons ago, the Jets needed a lot of help to make the playoffs, and took advantage of the help they got.

A few weeks ago, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Tennessee lost to give the Jets the lead for the sixth seed. They controlled their own destiny to make the playoffs, but instead they felt like making it interesting by losing and giving the teams a chance. Not only did they lose to the Eagles, whom they've NEVER beaten (0-9), but they got incredibly embarrassed on offense and defense. Santonio Holmes got a taunting penalty after catching a touchdown to cut the lead to 28-10. All of this after the receiver let a ball go through his hands that was intercepted and fumbled the ball that was returned for a touchdown.

The Jets play the Giants in a game that will most likely decide both team's playoff fate. Surprisingly enough, the Jets still control their destiny based on a lucky tiebreaker with the Bengals. The Giants play the Cowboys in the final week of the season, if they win both games, they are playoff bound.

This madness was just the beginning of the late games. The Raiders scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to take a 13-point lead on the Lions. Matt Stafford led the Lions on a 71-yard drive in under three minutes to cut the lead to six. After forcing a punt, Shane Lechler did what he does best, and pinned the Lions at the two yard-line with just over two minutes to play. Unfortunately, that was way too much time for Detroit.

The game-winning touchdown drive included a 48-yard completion to Calvin Johnson. Megatron also caught the game-winning touchdown, his second on the day. The Lions left over a minute for the Raiders to attempt the tying field goal, which they did. Sebastian Janikowski attempted a 65-yard field goal, which was blocked. If Oakland had won the game, they would have the tiebreaker over the Jets, so New York caught another huge break.

The Cardinals were wetting the bed against Cleveland, but were able to come back and kick the game-winning field goal in OT. I'm not going to spend too much time on this, but it was an incredible game, and the Cards kept their playoff chances alive by getting to 7-7.

The final late game was Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow, and the game did not live up to the hype. The Broncos actually took a 16-7 lead in the second quarter, but we all know that you can't kick field goals if you want to beat the Pats. After the 16-7 lead, the Pats responded with 20 unanswered points, with three Denver fumbles in the mix. The Denver offense isn't built for huge comebacks, especially when the defense is struggling to stop the opposition.

The Pats scored a touchdown in the third, and everyone thought it was "Tebow Time" when the Broncos cut the lead back to 11. Brady responded with a touchdown drive of his own that killed way too much clock. Tebow and two other Broncos lost fumbles, and the Pats didn't turn the ball over. I hate the Pats, but they shut up the Broncos, Tebow and all of his followers of Tebowism.

The night games only made everything else even more interesting... but we'll get to those tomorrow.

Rodgers That

Wow, it's Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Wow, I can't believe it is Sunday already. I'm sorry for letting this week slip by without a post. I obviously have been a bit out of it and had a rough night of work last night. I forgot to do the games to watch, so I am going to take care of that right now with the late games.


Game 1

Colts at Broncos - This isn't that good of a game because I think the Colts are going to come out, still upset over losing to Houston in week one, and just unload on Denver. Manning showed that the Colts hadn't lost a step by destroying his brother last week. Denver looked great last week killing Seattle. However, they are going against the cream of the crop in the AFC. If Denver wants to show they can compete with the best they will keep it within a touchdown, but I don't even think that will happen. Look for Addai/Brown to rush for over 100 yards combined and Manning to throw for over 300 yards.

My Prediction: Colts (-5.5) 34 Broncos 20

Game 2

Jets at Dolphins - This is a huge game for both teams. It is the Sunday night game and both teams are looking to make a statement. The Jets defense has looked phenomenal and looks to shut down the Dolphins dynamic running game, as well as big-play receiver Brandon Marshall. The Phins passing game hasn't amounted to much this year, but they will look to take advantage of a Jets defense that is without Calvin Pace, Kris Jenkins and Darrelle Revis. Mark Sanchez looks to follow up a strong effort against the Pats, against a Miami defense that has allowed an average of 10 points per game. This should be a smashmouth game; look for some blood.

My Prediction: Jets (+2.5) 20 Dolphins 13

Game 3

Packers at Bears - This is without a doubt the game of the week. Chicago's offense has been on fire with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Jay Cutler looks like he did when he made the pro bowl back in Denver. However, they are going up against the Packers. Green Bay has one of the best offenses in the NFL with Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings being the main combo for them. They have a lot of talent on defense, but typically don't shut out their opponents so Chicago will be able to put up points. This should be a fairly high-scoring affair and it could come down to last possession.

My Prediction: Packers (-3) 31 Bears 27

Enjoy the late games, I'll be back later with a fantasy update.

Rodgers That

Moves around the NFL

By Dan Rodgers

Okay, this post is solely going to be about relatively significant moves made around the NFL, and my opinion about them if I feel necessary.

1. If you didn't know Donovan McNabb was a Redskin by now, quit life. If you were trying to ignore the fact that he wants T.O. to join him in D.C. I can't blame you. The Skins are bad enough, imagine that plus Owens...
2. The Broncos dealt Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins so he could get lost on Revis Island. At least the Broncos made out well getting a second round pick in this and next year's draft.
   
3. The Eagles acquired LB Ernie Sims from Detroit, sent a late round pick to the Broncos, who then sent TE Tony Scheffler to Detroit. Hmm, kind of confusing...Eagles easily got the best end in a good young backer.
   
4. Jason Taylor to the Jets...in the words of the Mighty Ducks, "Just because you wear the uniform, doesn't mean you're a real Duck."
   
5. Rams trade DT Adam Carriker to Skins...who cares?
6. Pats sign WR Holt...ugh, just the Pats bringing another old guy who is going to look like a pro-bowler in that offense?
7. Steelers bring back Byron Leftwich...enough said

I'll post any more as they happen

Rodgers That

Another big name WR on the move

By Dan Rodgers

For the second consecutive summer the Denver Broncos have traded away one of their best players. They shipped WR Brandon Marshall to the Miami Dolphins for a second-round pick in this years draft and next years draft. Are you kidding me? Marshall is worth so much and the Broncos nearly gave him away for two good OLBs? Two second round picks for one of the best receivers in the game. He is only 26 by the way! Ah!

I am clearly unhappy because I think Marshall is an absolute monster and now he is playing for, pending a physical, a division rival of mine. Once again, Revis to the rescue...hopefully. I can only hope that Marshall gets lost on Revis Island like the other top receivers in the game. That doesn't change the fact that he is a game changer and someone who you have to plan around.

The reason I don't like this move, from an unbiased standpoint, is because Miami is not a big passing team. They have shown they can be successful with a short/middle passing game and an extremely effective running game.

We will see what happens but now Revis' schedule, along with the Jets, just got a whole lot more difficult. Marshall is expected to sign one of the most lucrative wide receiver contracts in NFL history. Check back later for any updates.

Rodgers That