NFL Championship Weekend Review

By Dan Rodgers

Well, I was wrong only for the second time this post-season. Sunday was a fairly frustrating day and I didn't even have my team involved.

First, the Pats/Ravens game looked perfect. They were within a score of each other the entire game, and the halftime total was on pace to go over in the teaser. However, a stupid attempted fourth down by the Ravens and a missed field goal at the end cost us the tease by a half point. Brady uncharacteristically threw two interceptions in the second half and couldn't convert a red zone possession into a touchdown. Joe Flacco added a second half interception and couldn't lead the Ravens to a touchdown after earning a short field when recovering a fumble on a kickoff.

So as you can tell, everything had to go perfectly wrong in this game. Brady got completely outplayed and posted his lowest passer-rating since the Pats 2009 Wild Card loss to the Ravens.

The 49ers/Giants game went relatively how I expected. I was hoping to see more from the 49ers' receivers due to the mediocrity of the Giants secondary; however, it was just Vernon Davis that torched the secondary. The 49ers defense was unable to contain Victor Cruz, and surprisingly, Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw had 70 yards on 20 carries, which is decent considering San Fran's run defense is superb. However, Bradshaw had six catches for 50 yards, including a 30-yarder.

The first turning point in the game was when Kyle Williams let a punt bounce and hit him in the leg. Apparently, Williams didn't know the ball hit him, made no attempt at a recovery, and the Giants recovered. On a short field, the Giants converted two third-downs on their way to scoring the go-ahead touchdown. San Fran did respond, but had to settle for a field goal after getting inside the 10-yard-line. Both teams traded punts for the rest of regulation and into overtime.

After the Giants advanced the ball just passed midfield, the 49er defense held strong and forced another punt. Kyle Williams, doing his best to screw his team over, had a five-yard return before once again being the cause of a turnover. The Giants were able to play it safe, get a little closer, and Lawrence Tynes once again kicked the Giants into a Super Bowl match-up with the New England Patriots.

The Giants won the game outright, which I said I wouldn't be surprised if they did. The Giants obviously covered the tease, but I was still disappointed that I picked San Fran, and in my opinion, they should have won and covered the two. Well, at least the games were eventful.

Disappointing fact: The Ravens (my girlfriend and friends' team) and Jets (my team) have lost in the AFC Championship game each of the last four seasons. Ravens '08, '11 - Jets '09, '10

I don't know about you, but I didn't want this Super Bowl. However, it should at least be an exciting one with a lot of story-lines.

Rodgers That

NFL Championship Weekend

By Dan Rodgers

Well, we're down to the Final Four and while many could have predicted the AFC's participants before the season started, not many people had the 49ers and Giants in mind to be the NFC's final two participants.

The spreads for both games have been moving since they were first released last week. However, I don't think it has changed my opinion on them. If you aren't listening to me by now, you probably never will. However, if you are, you are experiencing quite a successful post-season thus far. I am 7-1 ATS, including 4-0 this past weekend.

I'll admit I was having a tough time reading the games when the lines were first released. I have a better feel now, and you'll find my thoughts below.

Early Game
(2) Baltimore Ravens (+7) at (1) New England Patriots

This is clearly a game between two polar opposites. The Ravens love to play defense, and the Pats love to play offense. However, the Patriots put together a very complete game last week in their 45-10 drubbing of the Denver Broncos. The Ravens didn't look very good on offense against the Texans second-ranked defense, but didn't commit any penalties or turnovers. Baltimore should obvious find more success against an abysmal New England defense, but their lack of execution leaves me wanting more.

I think Ravens fans need to recognize a lack of execution and stop putting the sole blame for the offensive woes on O-Coordinator Cam Cameron. If the Ravens can execute today, the Pats will struggle to stop them due to their balance. With a top running back and receivers that can stretch the field, we will likely see an offensive battle in this game. I think there is no question that the Ravens should cover, pending a crazy amount of turnovers, penalties, or injuries (of course), but coming away with a trip to Indianapolis will solely rely on the offensive execution.

Of course, if the Ravens can't stop the unique combination of Welker and Gronkowski, it will take at least 30 points to beat Brady and the Pats. However, I have faith that Baltimore can at least slow down Brady. The key to stopping Brady is getting pressure with the front four. If the Ravens can effectively rush Brady with their d-line and drop seven into coverage, it will clog the passing lanes and should frustrate Brady. We've seen evidence of this against the Steelers this season and the Jets in the playoffs last season.

Unfortunately, I think the Patriots are too good on offense and their defense will step up in this big game. It should be a close one though, and it would not at all surprise me if Baltimore won outright.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 27 (+7)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2)

I'm much less confident on this game. I think that the 49ers will win, but if the Giants do, they'll win the Super Bowl. Both teams have very good defenses, but both offenses have played very well as of recent. In my opinion, the Giants are the hottest team in the playoffs, but the 49ers are the most complete team.

The Giants defensive line is the best I've ever seen. All of the players: Tuck, Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, etc. are all strong, athletic, and fast off the line. They are the reason the Giants are so successful. If they can't get pressure, any above average quarterback should be able to pick apart their mediocre secondary. However, the 49ers love to play physical and should give the Giants d-line all they can handle. San Fran likes to run the ball should have no problem using multiple tight end sets to help block.

There is nothing special about the 49ers offense. They like to methodically move the ball down the field, focusing on the run game. I see this game being decided by offense because both defenses should find success. I think Eli Manning is clearly the superior QB, but Alex Smith has been playing well and doesn't make many mistakes.

Like I said earlier, I think the 49ers will win, but wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pulled it out. I'm picking San Fran to cover, but the real play with this game is teasing the Giants to +8.5.

Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 23 (-2) New York Giants 20

Money teaser: 6.5-tease Ravens +13.5, OVER 43.5 (Bal/NE), Giants +8.5 (5 units)

Enjoy what should be another fantastic weekend of playoff football. Make sure you set your NFL Playoff Fantasy Challenge lineups!

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Saturday

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

This is a game between polar opposite teams. The 49ers are one of the few defensive teams left in the playoffs, and the best defensive team in the NFC. They face the one of the best offensive teams in the Saints. Drew Brees broke the single season record for passing yards, and the Saints are still sixth in the NFL in rushing.

San Fran is the underdog and they are playing at home. There is one key to this game for the San Fran offense: score touchdowns, not field goals. David Akers broke a ton of records this season with all of this field goals for the 49ers, but that won't fly today against the Saints. If Alex Smith can get his team in the endzone, they will definitely have a chance because of their defense. The key for the Saints defense is clearly to bend but not break, something they've done fairly well this season.

The 49ers defense has to take away the New Orleans running game. I know you would think they should focus on Brees, but the running game is something that Brees uses to be so successful. If the 49ers front four can limit the rushing attack, they should see some success in slowing down Brees. The Saints should come out with play action and assume that the 49ers defense will immediately respect the run.

I think this will be a close game at the end even if it's not throughout. The Saints will probably win because they are more experienced and come up with big plays at big times, but I like San Fran at home with the points.

Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 23 (+3.5)

Late Game
(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots (-13.5)

This is another game between two very different teams. The Patriots love to throw the ball and use that to open up the run game. The Broncos play decent defense and use a college-type option offense to run the ball well. The problem for the Broncos is they are extremely inexperienced and are about to play a team that is not injured or inconsistent on offense.

While I hate him, Tom Brady should shred this defense like he did in their regular season meeting in Denver. It took a little while for the Pats to get going, but when they did, Denver couldn't keep up with them. The problem with Denver falling behind is that they aren't built for huge comebacks. We saw them comeback down one or two possessions earlier this season, but the Pats won't let them stick around.

If Denver's defense wants to have any success they should rely on their front four or five to stop the run and devote everyone else into stopping the pass. Tom Brady will pick apart a blitz, so the most effective way to stop him is to clog to passing lanes and drop a ton of guys into zone. Brady's success is all about timing, so if you jam the receivers at the line or get into the passing lanes, he will have to adjust.

Regardless, I don't think it matters. I hate the Pats as much as anyone, and I think they are going to absolutely stomp the Broncos. Denver got lucky in their last game that it took Brady a while to get going and Denver's offense was functioning fairly well. However, they were kicking field goals and started turning the ball over. I think New England wins big, but I wouldn't be surprised if I got screwed by a backdoor cover by Tebow.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 44 (-13.5) Denver Broncos 17

Check back later today, tonight, or tomorrow morning for Sunday's picks.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 15 Christmas Miracle Part 3

By Dan Rodgers

Before I go into this, just another quick congrats to Kellen Moore and the Boise State Broncos on their victory and Moore getting to 50 wins.

I did pick Houston on TNF because I figured they would dominate. TJ Yates looked decent and Foster had a great game. Somehow the Texans couldn't score and Indy made them pay. Now Baltimore is back in the driver's seat for the first-round bye.

Well, the night games followed suit. The Ravens were in prime position to go into San Diego and win on the road, further prove they are an elite team, and move one step closer to earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. However, they decided to suck and the Chargers looked like the 10-3 team looking for a first-round bye.

San Diego is 7-7 and somehow still alive in their division. Oh wait, they play in the AFC West, the worst division ever (biggest competition is the NFC East).

Well, the Ravens lost, which means the Steelers are in prime position to steal away the No. 1 seed in the playoffs because they would have a better record and the tiebreaker over the Pats. But wait, just when you expect the Steelers to take advantage of everyone else messing up, they get spanked (like I predicted they would).

The 49ers more than dominated the game and all but knocked the Steelers out of the division race. With Big Ben hurting, the Steelers probably won't try to aggravate the injury. Luckily for the wild card teams, the division winner they will face in the first round will be an apparently bad Texans team, and whichever terrible team represents the AFC West (probably Denver).

Events like week 15 are the reason the NFL is so incredibly popular. They aren't helping their cause with all of the stupid rules and the refs sucking, but the competition is incredible.

Not a good start to this week... I'll be getting my swag back the rest of the season since the semester is over.

Rodgers That

Happy Thanksgiving

By Dan Rodgers

So, in my eyes, I've been struggling with my picks. I've been around .500 the last few weeks which is below average in my mind because I know what I'm capable of doing. I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksgiving because this is one of the greatest American traditions, eat as much as possible and watch football from noon until midnight. I'll post today's games now and the rest tomorrow or Saturday.

Green Bay Packers -6 at Detroit Lions

The Pack is unstoppable... offensively. Fortunately for the Lions, their defense is suspect at best. A mediocre Josh Freeman and LaGarrett Blount kept it relatively close against Green Bay last week, who at two separate times in the fourth quarter cut the lead to two points. I think that it is tradition for the Lions to play, and lose, on Thanksgiving. While Detroit's offense looked good in the second half last week, they aren't going up against a defense as bad as Carolina's. Also, keep in mind that Detroit gave up 35 points to Cam Newton and Steve Smith. I think that means we are looking at about 50 points from Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley... (and the list goes on).

It should be a better game than we've seen in recent years, but I don't think Detroit will be able to have the offensive success they had last week to the tune of 49 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see a backdoor cover by either team.

Packers (-6) 31 Lion 23

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys -7

I'll start by saying that the Miami Dolphins have won three games in a row. That in itself is absolutely amazing, but let us consider the competition (Kansas City, Washington, Buffalo). Dallas played down to their opponent last week as it took overtime and a few missed field goals to beat Washington. However, the Cowboys always get up for Thanksgiving and Tony Romo is 4-0 ATS on Thanksgiving. For some reason, they are the anti-Lions. While the Lions stink it up every year, we can always count on Dallas to take care of business. This year shouldn't be any different. While Dallas' defense might have some issues with Miami's newly impressive passing game, there is no way Miami can stop Romo, Murray, Bryant and Witten.

I like DeMarco Murray to have a good game even though Miami has played well against the run recently. Also, Brandon Marshall is in for a big day because Dallas' secondary has been decimated by injuries.

Cowboys (-7) 34 Dolphins 24

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens -3.5

I will be at this game, and it should be a great one. Of course, it has been dubbed the Harbaugh Bowl, or the Harbowl, or whatever you want to call it. The first game in NFL history where the teams are coached by brothers. In my opinion, the NFL shafted the 49ers this week, similar to how they did the Jets last week. The 49ers have to travel from coast to coast (already very difficult), and now they have to do it on a short week.

San Fran has been outstanding this year defensively. They have yet to give up a rushing touchdown, and that will most definitely be put to the test tonight as they face off against Ray Rice. This game will be determined by whether or not San Fran's offense can do anything against Baltimore's defense. This should be a low-scoring affair, but I don't expect sloppy football. Whichever way it goes, it won't be a happy Thanksgiving in the Harbaugh home.

X-Factor: Whether or not Ray Lewis plays tonight.

San Francisco (+3.5) 20 Ravens 17

Once again, enjoy your Thanksgiving and all of the games today.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 8: Double digits

By Dan Rodgers

Note to self: If you want, look at trends and the opinions of "experts," but always make the final decision for yourself.

OK, now I'll explain that: Double digit underdogs cover the spread more often than not. I tried to find loopholes involving unbeaten and winless teams. Then, the Packers allowed a backdoor cover and the Ravens just flat out sucked. So we're looking into it. I'm coming up with a system similar to that of picking survivor teams. I'll let you know more about it next week because I'm testing it this week since there are so many big spreads.

In case you were wondering, I'm in first place in my

Ind/Ten 8.5 Tennessee has not been playing very well since they lost Kenny Britt, the Colts should keep it within single digits.
Jax/Hou 9.5 The Texans performed as expected last week against the Titans and Jacksonville gave the Ravens everything they had and won't get up for Houston.
Min/Car 3 Carolina is decent and Newton makes plays, they should win at home.
NO 14.5/Stl Ugh, another massive spread... I think we might get a backdoor cover from St. Louis - not a fan of the extra half point.
Ari/Bal 13 The Ravens were so terrible last week that I'm going to give themselves a chance for redemption. They better not mess it up.
Mia/NYG 10 The Giants should destroy Miami. They get Justin Tuck back and Miami won't do much in the cold.
Was/Buf 6 (in Toronto) I think Washington is decent enough to stick with the Bills. Teams have been flat coming off the bye.
Det 3.5/Den I think we're getting value because Denver came back to win and the Lions looked bad against Atlanta. Detroit should get back to work if Stafford plays.
NE 3.5/Pit The Steelers usually don't beat Tom Brady but they should at least keep it within a field goal.
Cle/SF 9 I love this game. I can't see the 49ers not killing Cleveland since San Fran is at home. SURVIVOR (6-1)
Cin 2/Sea Awkward spot for Cincy, coming off a bye and playing in Seattle doesn't bode well for them. Seattle SU
Dal/Phi 3 Philly is on their way to getting back on track and should win a nationally televised game at home.
SD 4/KC The Chiefs always seem to play San Diego tough... should be within a field goal and look for the upset.

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Total: 62-39-2 ATS 73-30 SU

Survivor is pretty easy this week because San Fran is playing well and they are at home against a team that is mediocre at best. Not much else to talk about.

There are six spreads of over a touchdown. That is pretty crazy considering two of those are division games and one is a road team. Everyone talks about the awesome thing that is the NFL, "Any given Sunday." So it's surprising to see so many big lines.

Week 8 bold prediction: The Packers stay undefeated and the Dolphins, Colts and Rams stay defeated? Obviously I'm not feeling creative.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

Carolina not so LUCKy

By Dan Rodgers

Stanford QB Andrew Luck has declared that he will be returning to school for his senior season. This decision is said not to change after Luck learned that his coach, Jim Harbaugh, signed a contract to be the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.

Harbaugh signed a five year deal on Friday, worth approximately $25 million. It was speculated, especially by me, that he would choose San Fran because of the proximity to Stanford.

Back to Luck, who was said by many to be the consensus No. 1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. The Carolina Panthers have that pick and it was widely speculated that they wanted to take Luck even though they drafted Jimmy Clawful in the second round of last year's draft.

Carolina will now have to completely rethink their draft strategy because the other QBs available (Mallet, Newton, Locker, etc) aren't considered to be No. 1 status.

I respect Luck for his decision while other people have been ripping him a new one for it. One guy called in on 105.7 The Fan and said he would tell his son to go pro and get the money while he could.

I guess I understand why it would make sense to go pro. If Luck tears his ACL his draft stock will plummet. However, even a bad season could hurt him since he is already the consensus No. 1 pick there is nowhere to go but down. However, you have to respect a kid who knows he will probably be the first overall pick and is staying in school even though his coach has already left as well.

Good luck Luck...

Rodgers That

1/4 NFL predictions

By Dan Rodgers

So we are officially 25% done with the regular season, well, at least most teams have played four games by now.

There have been a few surprises this season and personally, I don't think too many of them will last:

• The Kansas City Chiefs, the last unbeaten team, are 3-0 heading into their week five game against the Colts.
• The Dallas Cowboys are 1-2 heading into their week five game against the Titans.
• The Colts are 2-2, with two divisional losses to the Texans and Jaguars, respectively.
• The San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 heading into their week five game against the Eagles.
• The Houston Texans are 3-1, off to the best start in franchise history, and now get star LB Brian Cushing back from suspension.
• The New York Jets are 3-1, only loss being by 1 pt. to the Ravens, get back LB Calvin Pace, CB Darrelle Revis, and WR Santonio Holmes going into a revenge game against Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.
• Speaking of the Vikes, Favre has thrown six interceptions in three games (one shy of total of last season) and doesn't appear to have the magic of 2009.
  

The Chiefs should come down to Earth, while the Cowboys and Colts should both get back on track. Look for Houston to stay on track and have a good shot to make the playoffs, they'll give Indy a run for their money. The 49ers are arguably the biggest shock because many "experts" picked them to win the NFC West. Who knows what will happen with them...

Of course, I'm praying that my Jets stay on fire. They have already won more games in the division this year than they did all of last. They get to face a banged up Minnesota team this coming week, and they'll look to make a statement on national television.

Season Predictions:

AFC East: 2 Representatives - Jets and Pats
AFC North: 1(2) Representative(s) - Ravens and/or Steelers
AFC South: 1(2) Representative(s) - Colts and/or Texans
AFC West: 1 Representative - Chargers

Three out of four teams between the Ravens, Steelers, Colts and Texans will advance to the playoffs.

NFC East: 1 Representative - Giants
NFC North: 2 Representatives - Bears and Packers
NFC South: 2 Representatives - Falcons and Saints
NFC West: 1 Representative - Rams or Cardinals

The Rams or the Cards will win the division with a mediocre record, the other won't make the playoffs.

Even though we have only experienced a small sample of this NFL season, it has still proven to be crazy...over the next 13 weeks we will see if the ship will right itself for some teams or they can shock the NFL world.

Rodgers That

TNF is becoming a joke

By Dan Rodgers

In case some of you football fans are unaware of the Thursday night games so far this season, it is as if the NFL took some of the worst games each week and decided to put them on NFL Network. The level of competition in these games has been remarkably pathetic and at times I regret my purchase of the NFL Network.

The games have been absolutely pathetic; some have been just awful games between two subpar teams and others have just been bad football. The first game was one of the worst; week 10 the 49ers beat the Bears 10-6. Not to mention the fact that Jay Cutler threw five interceptions. The following week Miami edged Carolina 24-17 so you think it would be a good game. Besides the fact that the teams were bleh, it was just an ugly game of football to watch. The following week was Thanksgiving so you assume there has got to be some good football on television, right? Wrong, because the Lions are always on. They lost by three possessions to the Packers, the Cowboys embarrassed the Raiders, and the Broncos showed that the Giants are a mediocre team in their 26-6 win over the G-men.

After a disappointing holiday weekend, I got to watch my Jets on television and even though I thoroughly enjoyed their win over Buffalo, I can honestly say it was just bad football. To top it all off the defending Super Bowl champs, who had lost four in a row, were embarrassed in a 13-6 loss in Cleveland. I mean let's be honest, no one wants to watch the 49ers, Browns, Bills, Lions, or Raiders.

I can only ask myself one question here...why aren't the Vikings, Saints, Colts, etc on TNF?

Just so you know, the games the rest of the way are:

Week 15: Indy @ Jax
Week 16: Bolts @ Titans

Both of these are at least watchable games and could turn into interesting contests, but that surely doesn't make up for the games earlier in the year. Hopefully next year the NFL will do a better job creating the schedule.

Rodgers That

Are you ready for some football?

San Francisco @ Arizona - MNF

I do not see San Fran keeping this too close. So for all of you who took the Cards to cover this week (-9.5), I think you are in great position to win this one. Even though the Cards don’t have too much of a defense and I love Frank Gore and his down hill power running style; the 49ers are one dimensional given their lack of ability to move the ball in the air (~200 yards per game). The Cards explosive pass offense with Fitz and Boldin, as mentioned above, and power running game with Edge and rookie Tim Hightower (7 rush td’s, where did that come from?). Anyway, given this is a divisional game, you should assume it would be relatively close, but I say a late touchdown by San Fran makes it look closer than it is.

Rodgers' Pick: Arizona 37 San Francisco 23

The 49ers are not showing much promise with the way their playing right now. That team is in a bit of turmoil right now and I am looking forward to seeing who new head coach mike Singletary will kick off the field this week. On the other side, the Cardinals have the 1st rated scoring offense in the NFL. Kurt Warner is playing like a true veteran and getting the ball to the real playmakers on that team, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. It is a divisional game so it could be a lot closer then expected, but I can't see the 49ers holding on past the first half.

Price's Pick: Arizona 34 San Francisco 17

Leatherman's Pick: Arizona 34 San Francisco 21