NFL Week 15 Picks

By Dan Rodgers

Well, I nailed Atlanta on Thursday night and Dallas looks good tonight. 2-0 is not a bad way to start the week before getting to Sunday.

I am out of town visiting family so I'm just going to post the lines and my picks and not get in to much else.

Was/NYG 6.5 The Skins suck, but they will play the Giants tough. NY SU
GB 13.5/KC The Jets beat KC by four possessions and there is no reason for the Packers to do less than that
NO 7/Min I can't quite figure out why this spread is only a touchdown, but I'll take it...
Sea/Chi 3.5 Clearly Chicago isn't at all good without Cutler and/or Forte, Seattle will at least keep it close if not pull this one out
Car/Hou 6 I have faith in T.J. Yates
Ten 7/Ind The Titans must be pissed about last week and the Colts are beyond lucky they covered last week
Cin 7/Stl Sources say Kellen Clemens is starting for the Rams, and you know Cincy will play their hearts out considering the heartbreaking loss last week (SURVIVOR 11-3)
Mia/Buf 1.5 I have no comment on this game...
Det 1/Oak The Lions are the better team and the Packers really exposed Oakland's defense
NE 7.5/Den I think that New England's defense is bad enough and Denver's defense is good enough to keep this game within a touchdown, but the Pats probably win
NYJ/Phi 3 I can't believe the Jets are underdogs... I love them in this spot
Cle/Ari 6.5 Cleveland is just a terrible team and Arizona is playing well, let's see how they respond as favorites
Bal 3/SD Flying across the country is always tough and Ravens don't do it well. See Seattle game earlier this season
Pit/SF 1 If Big Ben doesn't play, San Fran should take care of business

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 13: 8-8 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 14: 9-6-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Total: 117-84-6 ATS 145-62 SU

I love Arizona and Cincy this week... I also like Green Bay and New Orleans, but you will have to make a judgement call on whether their offenses will be on full blast.

Rodgers That

Week 13 Picks

By Dan Rodgers

OK, so I was hoping to get this out earlier but the Towson game was nuts. As a Jets fan, I thought I had seen all of the possible ways of losing, but my Towson Tigers showed me something new.

Anyway, I am actually supposed to be in Virginia right now because I'm going to the Jets @ Redskins game today. I couldn't find my wallet so I couldn't leave last night, but I finally found it so I'm going to spit out my picks and then hit the road for some tailgating and football.

Ten/Buf 2.5 It's games like this you think the Titans would be favored...
KC/Chi 7 This SHOULD be a slaughter, but we saw what happened with Pittsburgh
Oak/Mia 3 You might be thinking, "Why isn't Oakland favored?" You're about to find out why
Cin/Pit 6.5 Cincy didn't play that well last week against Cleveland and I think Pittsburgh will rebound from last week's game
NYJ 3/Was Huge letdown spot for the Jets, but if they want to make their late season playoff push, they will get the job done
Atl 3/Hou Good team playing with rookie QB, look for the defense to step up big: Houston SU
Car/TB 3 Freeman is better than Newton, even if he isn't playing that way
Den/Min 1 I can't wait to see how many people took Denver in my book
Ind/NE 20 I didn't think I would ever pick a team favored by this much, but Indy takes losing to a whole new level... (SURVIVOR 9-3)
Bal 6.5/Cle I can't believe I'm picking the Ravens, on the road, against a bad team
Dal 5/Ari For some reason, everyone loves Arizona here. This is a huge game for Dallas as they can pull ahead of the Giants by two games...
Stl/SF 13 This matchup isn't even fair
GB 7/NYG This is why the Cowboys can go ahead by two games... I can't believe this line is so low considering how good Green Bay looked against Detroit, how bad NY looked, and the extra time to prepare for the Pack
Det/NO 9 I can't pick against Brees when he is as on fire as he is, the defense better step up
SD 3/Jax New owner, new coach, the team should get up for this game on MNF: JAX SU

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Total: 100-70-5 ATS 123-52 SU

You can tell that I didn't feel like actually picking a survivor, so I just went with New England...

As you can tell, the last time I had a solid week was back in Week 7. I have a good feeling about this week though.

Rodgers That

The Rest of Week 12

By Dan Rodgers

OK, so I didn't give you my Thanksgiving recap, but I'll include that with the rest of the games early this week. Unfortunately, I didn't have a lot to be thankful for, football-wise.

Ari/Stl 2.5 For some reason, whenever there is a battle of bad teams, I just have to go with the home team
Buf/NYJ 9.5 The spread is probably big because of the last game between the teams, so let's hope for a repeat
Cle/Cin 7 Cleveland plays these games tough and this will probably be a push
Hou 6.5/Jax Houston will win this easy because they will want to show they can compete without Schaub
Car 4/Ind The Colts are awful, I just can't pick them...
TB/Ten 3.5 Tampa sucks, hopefully we will see Jake Locker again
Min/Atl 10 No AP, not All-Day... Falcons win easy
Chi/Oak 4 Caleb Hanie is starting, but I think the Bears defense will step up
Was/Sea 3.5 Washington sucks, they played Dallas tough because that's what they do, but it's always difficult to play in Seattle SURVIVOR (9-2)
NE 3.5/Phi I told you I wasn't taking Philly, even though I can't describe to you how much I hate that extra half point
Den/SD 6 Denver has been playing well, the last game was decided by 5 and Rivers is struggling
Pit 10.5/KC Repeat of last week's game against NE, Steelers win big
NYG/NO 7 The Giants had a huge let down last week against Philly, I think they'll have a hard time rebounding against the Saints

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Total: 92-63-4 ATS 111-48 SU

These lines are interesting because you've got the Jets coming off an embarrassing loss who are almost double digit favorites, and Houston just lost their starting quarterback and they are on the road in the division and favored by just under a touchdown. I don't care about the extra half point, the Steelers need to make a statement and the Chiefs are a good team to do it against. If Orton plays then I won't feel as good, but Tyler Palko sucks. Unfortunately, there are a ton of lines with an extra half point, but most of them aren't changing my opinion (i.e. Seattle, Tennessee).

The fantasy playoffs are right around the corner, and I'm going to be in them in every one of my leagues (I think). One league I'm dominating and in first place, and I'm just in the mix in the rest. Don't hesitate to ask any fantasy football questions.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 11: Quickie

By Dan Rodgers

Unfortunately, I have a project for school that I have to do from 10 a.m. until around game time, so I have to throw my picks in now because I wasn't able to earlier in the week. I will only have my picks and I'll do post-game analysis.

Obviously I took the Jets at -6 because I forgot they feel like sucking as of recent.

Buf 1.5/Mia Buffalo is reeling and Miami is playing well, they will win outright at home
Cin/Bal 7 This will be a defensive game and like most Ravens games, it will be a possession game
Jax/Cle 1 Jacksonville is playing their third straight road game, Cleveland will get it done SURVIVOR (8-2)
Oak/Min PK The Vikes are coming off a pounding from GB and can't get up for Oakland
Car/Det 7 So much offense, expect a ton of points... Carolina should keep it close
TB/GB 14 Green Bay is amazing, Tampa is no match for them
Dal 7/Was Washington is terrible and Dallas has been playing really well as of late
Ari/SF 9.5 I know this is a division game but San Fran is too good and Arizona is not as good as they played last week
Sea/Stl 2.5 Both teams suck so the home team gets it done
SD/Chi 3.5 The Chargers need this game so I wouldn't be surprised if they got it done
Ten/Atl 6 Atlanta is better than Tennessee who has struggled
Phi/NYG 6 I told you I am done picking the Eagles
KC/NE 14.5 The Pats will absolutely destroy KC... Tyler Palko sucks

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Total: 86-58-2 ATS 100-46 SU

NFL Week 10: picks and preview

By Dan Rodgers

Last week was frustrating because of all the backdoor covers and terrible play by some of the teams. I still ended up over .500 ATS and SU. So far, I'm picking about 60% ATS and 70% SU. I would like to up both of those by at least five percent by season's end.

The reason I'm posting the games so early is because there was a death in the family and I will be out of town. I'm not sure if I will be able to post or update these, but this is how I feel about them right now.

Oak/SD 7 So this game was last night, but honestly I thought San Diego was going to cover ... They clearly suck
Hou 3/TB I'm hearing a lot of mixed opinions on this game, but I think Tampa is so inconsistent and Houston is the better team...
Ari/Phi The line has yet to be released for this game, but it doesn't matter because the Eagles should kill the Cards (SURVIVOR 8-1)
Was/Mia 4 The Skins have shown their true colors recently and I think Miami gets two in a row
Den/KC 4 This is divisional game in a division that sucks and is sometimes tough to predict. Denver SU
Jax 3/Ind Another awful game this weekend that people have mixed opinions about. This is one of four games left that I think Indy has a chance to win... but they won't
Buf/Dal 5.5 I love the Cowboys in this game. Buffalo is coming off a bad loss and is not good on the road
Stl/Cle 3 As I said right above, another awful game. I think St. Louis is going to be pissed about last week and will take this one SU.
NO 1/Atl Finally, a better game... people have mixed opinions on this one as well. I think Atlanta needs to get back on track at home
Ten/Car 3 Tennessee doesn't have much going for them and I think Carolina should take care of business at home... Cam makes plays
Pit 3/Cin While this is a good game, it is tough to read. Cincy has only played one good team, a 5-point loss to San Fran... I think Pittsburgh is too good for them
Det/Chi 3 I was confused by this because Detroit is young and talented and the Bears are inconsistent. I think it will be a close game and I like the upset Detroit SU
NYG/SF 3.5 The 49ers are playing fairly well and I think the Giants are a bit overrated. I think San Fran will pull this one out
Bal 7/Sea Seattle usually plays tough at home and Baltimore might come out flat after an emotional last second win against Pittsburgh... Ravens SU
NE/NYJ 1 A lot of people are not sure why the Jets are favored here, but New England is struggling and the Jets are playing well... I think they take the division lead
Min/GB 13 Last time these two played Minnesota came back and only lost by six, and I think they play them tough again. The Packers defense isn't that good GB SU

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Total: 77-51-2 ATS 91-39 SU

This is a tough week for survivor, but the Philly spread should be more than seven and I think they are safe even though they are struggling. Arizona is just plain bad, which I am surprised by, but they've be consistently bad so we must take advantage of that.

This should be an interesting week and unfortunately, I don't feel too confident. We shall see.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 9

By Dan Rodgers

So last week was another sub-par week by my own standards. However, I'm feeling another weird week this week because a lot of the lines seem off from what you might have thought they would be.

Atl 6.5/Ind I was giving the Colts some respect and they have been tough to read this season, but Matty Ice should get it done by at least a touchdown.
TB/NO 8.5 I can't believe the Saints are favored by over a touchdown after Tampa beat them earlier and they let down against the Rams. NO SU
Cle/Hou 10.5 Houston is a much better team, but you know how I feel about double-digit spreads Houston SU (SURVIVOR 7-1)
NYJ/Buf 2.5 Do or die for the Jets, and the Bills need this win to prove they are legit Jets SU
Mia/KC 4 Kansas City has come to play this season (not including the first few games)
SF 4/Was This is by far the most awkward line of the afternoon, but it's not enough to make me sway from San Fran
Sea/Dal 11 I hate Seattle, but you know how I feel about double-digit lines
Den/Oak 7.5 Divisional game should be within a touchdown Oakland SU
Cin/Ten 2.5 The Bengals are the better team so I like them as an underdog Cincy SU
Stl/Ari 3 This is a battle of backups and AJ Feeley proved he is a decent backup. Rams SU
NYG/NE 8.5 Rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl, the Giants should keep it close and watch for the upset if Manning can pick apart the New England secondary
GB 5.5/SD Rivers is clearly not in his element and the Packers are healthier coming off the bye
Bal/Pit 3 The Steelers are playing well and want to prove week 1 was a fluke
Chi/Phi 8 I'm not sure about this one yet because Philly is playing well and sometimes Chicago is tough to read

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Total: 69-45-2 ATS 82-34 SU

Survivor: Obviously now that I already messed up, I'm killing it and even though I'm picking Cleveland, Houston should have no problem winning. Unfortunately (for my fantasy team) Andre Johnson is still out, but that shouldn't matter.

Week 9 bold prediction: Wow... I picked 11 road teams to cover...

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 8: Double digits

By Dan Rodgers

Note to self: If you want, look at trends and the opinions of "experts," but always make the final decision for yourself.

OK, now I'll explain that: Double digit underdogs cover the spread more often than not. I tried to find loopholes involving unbeaten and winless teams. Then, the Packers allowed a backdoor cover and the Ravens just flat out sucked. So we're looking into it. I'm coming up with a system similar to that of picking survivor teams. I'll let you know more about it next week because I'm testing it this week since there are so many big spreads.

In case you were wondering, I'm in first place in my

Ind/Ten 8.5 Tennessee has not been playing very well since they lost Kenny Britt, the Colts should keep it within single digits.
Jax/Hou 9.5 The Texans performed as expected last week against the Titans and Jacksonville gave the Ravens everything they had and won't get up for Houston.
Min/Car 3 Carolina is decent and Newton makes plays, they should win at home.
NO 14.5/Stl Ugh, another massive spread... I think we might get a backdoor cover from St. Louis - not a fan of the extra half point.
Ari/Bal 13 The Ravens were so terrible last week that I'm going to give themselves a chance for redemption. They better not mess it up.
Mia/NYG 10 The Giants should destroy Miami. They get Justin Tuck back and Miami won't do much in the cold.
Was/Buf 6 (in Toronto) I think Washington is decent enough to stick with the Bills. Teams have been flat coming off the bye.
Det 3.5/Den I think we're getting value because Denver came back to win and the Lions looked bad against Atlanta. Detroit should get back to work if Stafford plays.
NE 3.5/Pit The Steelers usually don't beat Tom Brady but they should at least keep it within a field goal.
Cle/SF 9 I love this game. I can't see the 49ers not killing Cleveland since San Fran is at home. SURVIVOR (6-1)
Cin 2/Sea Awkward spot for Cincy, coming off a bye and playing in Seattle doesn't bode well for them. Seattle SU
Dal/Phi 3 Philly is on their way to getting back on track and should win a nationally televised game at home.
SD 4/KC The Chiefs always seem to play San Diego tough... should be within a field goal and look for the upset.

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Total: 62-39-2 ATS 73-30 SU

Survivor is pretty easy this week because San Fran is playing well and they are at home against a team that is mediocre at best. Not much else to talk about.

There are six spreads of over a touchdown. That is pretty crazy considering two of those are division games and one is a road team. Everyone talks about the awesome thing that is the NFL, "Any given Sunday." So it's surprising to see so many big lines.

Week 8 bold prediction: The Packers stay undefeated and the Dolphins, Colts and Rams stay defeated? Obviously I'm not feeling creative.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 7: Bouncing back

By Dan Rodgers

Just as I suspected, last week I bounced back fairly well from my dreadful week 5. If you're not yet convinced of my talent, I'm going to try to find the numbers for my previous seasons so you can see my consistency.

NCAA: Rough week for Top 25 as seven teams went down, including four to unranked opponents and two top 10 teams. Unfortunately, I was hit by a few of those because I didn't expect Wisconsin to only play in the first and fourth quarters

Chi 1.5/TB (in London) No home team, the Bucs got up last week for New Orleans and Chicago is playing better
Was/Car 3 Should be able to take care of business at home assuming Philly showed Washington's true colors last week
SD/NYJ 1 Weird spread and movement all week, Jets play well at home
Sea/Cle 3 Seattle still sucks and is a road team...
Hou/Ten 3 Curious spread, I think Houston is just the better team
Den 1/Mia Crazy movement in this line, and rightfully so...Denver should kill them
Atl/Det 3 This line dropped but I still like Atlanta, Detroit SU
KC/Oak 4.5 Who knows what the Raiders are getting from their QB, possible upset, Oakland SU
Pit 4.5/Ari Pittsburgh should be more than 4.5 points better than Arizona, weak SB rematch
GB 12/Min Aaron Rodgers is amazing (it comes with the last name)
Stl/Dal 14 Rams are defeated, so that allows me to take Dallas here SURVIVOR (5-1)
Ind/NO 13.5 Even though Indy is defeated, I think they'll cover, wish I had the extra half point though... NO SU
Bal 10/Jax There is a time and place for EVERY rule to be broken and this is it... There is no reason for the Ravens to not win this game by 30+ points

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Total: 53-36-1 ATS 63-27 SU

I just realized I took nine out of 13 road teams to cover, that's pretty wild. Of course I'll probably go 16-1 with survivor but who cares because I screwed myself!

Anyway, this is an interested week because there are a lot of double digit spreads (4) and spreads of a field goal or less (7). I think it's about time we see some separation and the good teams rise to the top. I hate letting mediocre teams (Buffalo/Washington) hang around.

Week 7 bold prediction: The Broncos, Packers, Cowboys and Ravens all win by at least three touchdowns.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 5: keep it going

By Dan Rodgers

I feel like the lines this year have been tougher than in recent years. I've been picking in my pool for over four years now, and it just seems like there are a ton more close spreads this season. It doesn't seem to matter as I had an average (in my opinion) week ATS but owned SU.

I'm going to give you the disclaimer now: At some point, like everybody else, I will probably have a terrible week... Just remember, there's always next week (or next season)

KC/Ind 2.5 Indy is still terrible and KC started to score last week KC SU
Ari/Min 3 AP should go off today, I expect some points
Phi 3/Buf Philly needs this one badly, they're down but not out
Oak/Hou 5 A bit high considering Oakland as shown life, but I like Schaub at home
NO 7/Car Higher than expected considering Carolina has shown they can score, but Brees is too good
Cin/Jax PK Incredible value with Cincy here, they are 3-1 and playing a weak Jags offense, love the under
Ten/Pit 3 I know they're beat up, but only three points for Pittsburgh AT HOME...
Sea/NYG 10 Seattle has proved they can play at home, but flying across the country for an early game will be tough SURVIVOR PICK (4-0)
TB/SF 3 Don't like this game but I like WalterFootball and he likes Tampa TB SU
NYJ/NE 7 I might be a homer but I think we always try to get up for the Pats and this is a big spread for a division game- Jets offer tremendous value for the line pays +100 and SU is +290 NYJ SU
SD 4.5/Den Denver's home advantage is unlike most teams (a la Seattle) Look for the upset Denver SU
GB 7/Atl This spread is big because Atlanta blew a big lead at Seattle and Green Bay destroyed Denver, I think the Pack is a little overvalued here but they are still amazing
Chi/Det 6 Chicago likes blowing leads and Detroit likes coming back...

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Total: 37-26-1 ATS (59%) 46-18 SU (72%)

You see that right above? Jump on the bandwagon while there is still room...

SURVIVOR: To be honest, the Giants are the only viable option this week. Even if I could use a team I've already used, I would go with the Giants. Even though Seattle has been playing fairly well in their last two, both have been at home. Seattle is 0-2 ATS on the road, getting outscored 17-57. The Giants offense has been playing incredibly well and I don't think Seattle can give them enough problems on defense to threaten the cover, let alone the win. 21 of 35 have been knocked out of my pool, 14 the first week and seven between the last two weeks.

Week 5 bold prediction: We will still have at least two defeated teams (0-5)

Also, I'm going to start posting this on Friday or Saturday so you actually have time to read and possibly use this gold that I'm posting. Look for a midweek video on fantasy. I'm 4-0 in two leagues and 3-0-1 in another...

Follow me on Twitter: @dhrodgers52

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Sports Video Blog: NFL Week 4: On a roll

By Dan Rodgers

OK, we enter this week on a roll in picks and fantasy, so let's keep it going. Finally, I have another video for you.

There are a lot of great games this week and a few that should be blowouts...but remember: Any Given Sunday

Det/Dal 1.5 Strange spread, Detroit is better team...look for points - Det SU
NO 8/Jax Saints should absolutely destroy them, look for over 30 points from NO
SF/Phi 9.5 San Fran has been playing well, Eagles need this one badly - Philly SU
Was 2.5/Stl The Rams aren't as bad as last week showed - St. Louis SU
Ten 1.5/Cle Cleveland should take care of business at home - Cleveland SU
Buf 4/Cin UPSET SPECIAL! Cincy SU
Min 3.5/KC KC finally has a decent week at home - Kansas City SU
Car/Chi 7 If all is right in the world, Chicago will blow them out...
Pit/Hou 3.5 If Pittsburgh plays like they did last week, Schaub will throw for over 400
Atl 6/Sea Seattle sun isn't hot enough to melt Matty Ice
NYG 3/Ari Hate this game...
Mia/SD 7 San Diego is just plain better, and at home... SURVIVOR PICK (3-0)
Den/GB 13 Super Bowl champs should win by at least 20 points
NE 6/Oak Possible upset...Brady is out for blood though... NE SU
NYJ/Bal 3.5 Should be a 3-point game in either direction... Ravens SU
Ind/TB 10 Freeman finally breaks out this year and his fantasy owners celebrate a comeback win

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Total: 28-19-1 ATS 33-15 SU



SURVIVOR: I've been cutting it close with survivor, but in my mind, that's what has to be done... I got away with the Titans last week even though they played terribly and CJ2K has yet to break out. I think San Diego is too good to lose at home to a miserably 0-3 Miami team. Rivers is going to be looking to have a big bounce back week after struggling big time last week against KC. I like the Chargers to cover the spread but I'm not too confident in that. Miami has kept it close the past three weeks.

Fantasy Review: I have been tearing it up in fantasy football thus far. In the leagues that matter, I am: 3-0, 3-0, 2-0-1, 2-1, 1-2... So as you can see, I am only struggling in one league. In that league, I have Arian Foster (finally playing this week) and Rashard Mendenhall (disappointment thus far). In the other leagues, I have a mix of players like: Ray Rice (2 leagues), Matt Forte (2), Roddy White (2), Calvin Johnson (2), Mike Wallace (1), Jermichael Finley (3), Vernon Davis (1), Andre Johnson (1).

So as you can tell, I have a ton of players that have been playing really well this season and this is just to name a few. If you aren't yet convinced of my ability, ask me questions about picks or fantasy...let me prove it to you.

Week 4 bold prediction: At least 8 road teams will win this week

Remember, follow me on Twitter: @dhrodger52

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NFL Week 3: Steelers suck

By Dan Rodgers

This will be a short post because I really just need to update the Dallas/Washington line.

Dallas has opened at -4, but I've found it interesting that the line has already moved to Dallas -2.5 and I won't pick the game until tomorrow night. The spread is freaking me out and I want to see how the public reacts to everyone betting the Skins this hard. I'll update this post later with my thoughts on the game...if I have any.

UPDATE: I've decided I like the Skins tonight. I've been reading up on some things and I think they will stay competitive enough to cover the four points. Dallas has enough injuries that Washington should be able to at least keep it close. Also, a fun fact is that the road team has covered in six of the previous seven meetings. Make sure you root for Tim Hightower so I can lock it up in fantasy this week.

As for the Pittsburgh Steelers... they can go to hell. They come out firing and they look phenomenal in the first quarter, and then they just suck the rest of the game. I don't understand if an 85-yard bomb to Mike Wallace worked once, it should work again. Also, how do you not change your protection scheme when Freeney and Mathis are feasting on your offensive line? Big Ben is partly at fault, but Tomlin needed to put extra tight ends or something to help block. The Colts get rocked week one by Houston and couldn't keep up with Cleveland, but the Steelers allow them to drive right down the field on them for the tie?

Anyway, the Steelers are overrated and I will not fall for that one again. The Ravens performed as expected. Tennessee didn't cover, but they won so I'm still alive. It was a crazy week because Detroit, Tennessee, Carolina, San Diego and Pittsburgh all played close games and were choices in survivor. Only three of 21 people were eliminated this week: New England (road and divisional), Arizona (road) and a guy who didn't pick.

Next week, an early look-ahead: the only two games I'm even considering are Chicago at home against Carolina and Green Bay at home against Denver.

Be back with more on the MNF game later. CHECK UP TOP.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 3 Picks and more

By Dan Rodgers

I know you're disappointed that I'm not doing a video again this week. However, you should have been happy that last week I was 10-6 ATS and 13-3 SU.

I'm starting to get into a groove and you don't want to fall behind, but before I get too cocky/confident, this week has a ton of close games that could go either way. Fortunately, I feel pretty solid about the games.

SF/Cin 2.5 Weird spread...have to go with Cincy
NE 7/Buf NE SU, wouldn't be surprised by Buffalo
Hou/NO 4 Houston isn't quite ready to battle with the big boys
NYG/Phi 8.5 Division games are tough, Eagles SU
Mia/Cle 2 Miami SU
Den/Ten 7 Will CJ2K ever get going? SURVIVOR PICK (2-0)
Det 3/Min Lions 3-0?
Jax/Car 3 Newton gets his first win
KC/SD 14 Hate this game, Gates is out...SD SU
NYJ 3/Oak Letdown game for Jets...stay away
Bal 4/Stl Ravens rebound strong
Atl/TB 1.5 Matty Ice melts in the Florida sun
Ari 3.5/Sea Seattle SU, 12th man
GB 4/Chi SB Champs
Pit 10.5/Ind Colts suck for Luck

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU - Expect this kind of success throughout the season. I know what I'm doing and it will show. Everyone has rough weeks, but winners come out on top in the end.

OK, this is an interesting week. You have three spreads over a touchdown and six that are three points or less. Usually, I like to take the underdog in massive spreads because it's so difficult to cover. However, in the Steelers case, they showed that they are actually good last week by shutting out Seattle and the Colts are just terrible. So, I feel comfortable with Pittsburgh.

However, for the Eagles and Chargers, both games are against divisional opponents and anything can happen in division games. KC has lost by over 30 points in consecutive weeks, but you can bet your ass they will get up for this one. The Chargers lost to New England last week and you know they wanted that game. They will also be without Antonio Gates.

Remember: Survivor picks are only straight up... I know Tennessee kind of breaks the rule of picking a bad team, but they played well against Baltimore so they should take care of business against a terrible Denver squad. Hopefully, CJ2K will finally get going and look for the Titans defense to force the Broncos to be one-dimensional.

The two spreads I love the most:

Steelers -10.5: The Steelers proved the Ravens game was a fluke and they can still play. Indy is terrible without Peyton: He is to the Colts as LeBron James was to the Cavs...

Ravens -4: This spread is so wrong. Baltimore was terrible last week, so everyone is thinking they aren't that good. Well, they weren't as good as everyone thought after the Steelers game. For some reason, even though the Rams couldn't score touchdowns against the Giants injured defense, people think the Rams can score on the Ravens? No. Ravens by two touchdowns.

Week 3 bold prediction: The NFC North and AFC East will be the only divisions with undefeated teams and both will have two.

Lastly, I only went 3-3-1 in fantasy this past week. Fortunately, two of the losses were in free leagues and the other loss was to the guy who scored the most points last week. And yes, I did tie last week: 126.52-126.52 I couldn't believe it. The only guy I had left was Mike Sims-Walker and I was down 9.2 points. He had 92 receiving yards (not a PPR league). He made a garbage catch but there was holding on the play. I'm experiencing pretty decent success and I'm not 0-2 in any league that matters.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 2: Picks but No Video

By Dan Rodgers

So, there is no video this week because I didn't get one done before Friday and now I'm in Jersey. My girlfriend and I drove to my sister's place in Lancaster yesterday and came to Jersey today for my cousin's engagement party. Thankfully, the Jets are home this week and a bunch of us are going to the game. I'm going to try to get a video of the inside of the stadium.

Below are my picks, just like last week: The bold team is my pick and the favored team has the number (spread) next to them.

Chi/NO 6.5 Saints straight up
KC/Det 8.5
Jax/NYJ 9
Ari/Was 4
Bal 7/Ten
Sea/Pit 14.5 SURVIVOR PICK* (1-0)
GB 11.5/Car
TB/Min 3 Bucs SU as well
Cle 2/Ind
Oak/Buf 3.5
Dal 4/SF 49ers SU as well
Cin/Den 3.5 Don't touch
SD/NE 7 Pats SU
Hou 3.5/Mia
Phi 2.5/Atl Don't touch
Stl/NYG 6

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU, Last week was rough because it was the first week after a lockout shortened offseason. I think around .500 is decent enough.

Games with notes next to them mean I wouldn't touch the game or I picked the underdog to cover so I'm specifying if I also like them to win (straight up/SU) as well.

I'm going to start giving explanations on the Jets games because I try to not let fanhood get in the way. This week it's simple, I think they'll score like they did last week but give up less because the Jags offense isn't as good as Dallas'.

*Keep in mind survivor pick is strictly who will win the game, no spreads involved:
Pittsburgh was an easy survivor pick because of last week. They were absolutely embarrassed by the Ravens and there won't be a game they are more prepared for than this one. If they lose this week they should just forfeit the season. The 49ers crushed them last week and if they couldn't move the ball against San Fran, they definitely won't be able to against Pittsburgh. Other considerations were the Jets (but I'm trying to not pick them) and the Lions (I want to know if they are for real).

I like to use most of the advice from WalterFootball, who recommends that you do a few things while picking your survivor team:

1. Never take a road team (That's why I'm not considering Packers/Ravens this week)
   
2. Never take a team in a divisional game
3. Never take a bad team
4. Never choose an underdog (as determined by the spread)

He also says to never save teams and always take your best option. If everyone listened to him, everyone would be taking the Steelers this week because they are the clear-cut best option. Hopefully, they'll take care of business and we'll see upsets elsewhere to knock some people out. Last week, out of the 35 people in my pool, 14 were knocked out. Cleveland and Kansas City were the teams that did (or maybe didn't do) damage last week, so who will be that team this week?

Three potentials: 49ers (+4), Chargers (+7), Rams (+6)

Week 2 Bold Prediction: Three (6 total) teams in the AFC East and NFC North will be 2-0

Last but not least, I went 5-2 in my seven fantasy leagues. One I lost, it's a B.S. one that I didn't attend draft and it's only for fun and the other is because the dumb experts told me to start Deangelo Williams over Ben Tate. I lost by 8 points, and Tate had 11 more points than Williams. But, I'm not here to make excuses, business will be taken care of this week.

Rodgers That