Before I go into this, just another quick congrats to Kellen Moore and the Boise State Broncos on their victory and Moore getting to 50 wins.
I did pick Houston on TNF because I figured they would dominate. TJ Yates looked decent and Foster had a great game. Somehow the Texans couldn't score and Indy made them pay. Now Baltimore is back in the driver's seat for the first-round bye.
Well, the night games followed suit. The Ravens were in prime position to go into San Diego and win on the road, further prove they are an elite team, and move one step closer to earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. However, they decided to suck and the Chargers looked like the 10-3 team looking for a first-round bye.
San Diego is 7-7 and somehow still alive in their division. Oh wait, they play in the AFC West, the worst division ever (biggest competition is the NFC East).
Well, the Ravens lost, which means the Steelers are in prime position to steal away the No. 1 seed in the playoffs because they would have a better record and the tiebreaker over the Pats. But wait, just when you expect the Steelers to take advantage of everyone else messing up, they get spanked (like I predicted they would).
The 49ers more than dominated the game and all but knocked the Steelers out of the division race. With Big Ben hurting, the Steelers probably won't try to aggravate the injury. Luckily for the wild card teams, the division winner they will face in the first round will be an apparently bad Texans team, and whichever terrible team represents the AFC West (probably Denver).
Events like week 15 are the reason the NFL is so incredibly popular. They aren't helping their cause with all of the stupid rules and the refs sucking, but the competition is incredible.
Not a good start to this week... I'll be getting my swag back the rest of the season since the semester is over.
OK, well that warning in the last post about a last week was coincidentally in reference to last week. It was one of the worst football weeks of my entire life.
The Giants started the party by sucking against a team that is so terrible on the road, it's ALMOST a guaranteed win for their opponents. The Seahawks this season, before the Giants game, were 2-0 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS on the road. But that trend isn't just this season, they have been known for being terrible on the road and competitive at home. But of course, since I picked the Giants in every way possible, they lost...
Joining the party were the two backdoor covers in the late games. New England and San Diego both kicked late field goals in their respective games to cover the spread, if you got it late in the week. The Pats opened at -9.5 and won by 9, but they closed at -7. The Chargers were -6 to open the week, but closed at 4.5 and they won by 5. So basically, it was just a whole big mess.
In terms of the headline, "Paying the bills," is in reference to my need to pay my bills. Usually, I am beyond against it, but I am working during the early games this Sunday. The Ravens (girlfriend's team) don't play until 4 and the Jets play MNF. *I know, bring on the boos
So you'll get a video right now for Sunday and I'll throw in some college:
These are my picks for now, but I'm going to review them tonight or tomorrow and possibly make some changes so check back.
Stl/GB 14 I have a new rule to always take the underdog in a double-digit spread, but the exception is if the favorite is undefeated... Jax/Pit 12 The Steelers aren't undefeated (see above) Phi 1.5/Was I have to give the Eagles a shot... they lose here and they're done SF/Det 4 San Fran is playing very well, but I think the Lions can take care of business at home Car/Atl 4 While Carolina covers all the time, I think Matty Ice will get back on track at home Ind/Cin 7 The Bengals are way more than 7 points better than Indy... especially at home Buf/NYG 3 I hate the Giants, but they should rebound at home Hou/Bal 7.5 The Ravens catch Houston without Andre and Mario...plus Schaub is banged up SURVIVOR (4-1) Cle/Oak 6.5 Oakland had an emotional win last week and they will have another one at home this week Dal/NE 6.5 Dallas has a good enough offense to keep up with New England...possible upset but not likely NO 4.5/TB I LOVE THE SAINTS IN THIS GAME! Tampa might not be as good as everyone thought... the Saints will show that Min/Chi 3 Interesting game...if Chicago's defense can't get back on track Minnesota can take this SU and AP will have a field day Mia/NYJ 7 The Jets must win to stay alive and they will cover if Brandon Marshall stays true to his word on getting ejected
Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU Total: 43-33-1 ATS 53-24 SU
Survivor: I know I got knocked out because of the stupid Giants, but if you're still in, now is the time to take the Ravens. They are a solid favorite and facing a Texans team that is very beat up and missing two of their best players. Baltimore should be able to capitalize in a big way.
Week 6 bold prediction: Should be a big week for the favorites...at least 10 of them cover
Okay, so my girlfriend was in town for Thanksgiving weekend and she just left so I didn't have time to do the post before the early set of games. However, the only one I would have included would be Green Bay at Atlanta and since it's early I'll still include it. Just so you know, there are quite a bit of good games this week so I'll be writing about four today.
Game 1
Green Bay at Atlanta - This is a NFC Championship preview. These two teams are the cream of the crop in the NFC and this game is going to play a huge factor in home field advantage/seeding. If Atlanta wins: commanding lead and just about a lock for the one seed. If Green Bay wins: holds tie-breaker over Atlanta and will have the same record. As for the game, Atlanta is clearly the safe pick because Matt Ryan has only lost one career game at home. I think this could be number two. Green Bay has a high-powered offense and a play-making defense, a combination (other than Saints?) that the Falcons haven't really seen this season. Look for a one possession game down until the end.
My Prediction: Green Bay (+2) 23 Atlanta 20
Game 2
Tampa Bay at Baltimore - This game is between a young, over-achieving team against an older, more experienced team. Clearly no one expected the Bucs to be 7-3 with a serious chance at the playoffs. The Ravens are tied with the Steelers for the lead in the division and currently hold the tie-breaker. I think this will be a close, low-scoring game. The Ravens should be able to pull it out because they are at home. Not much else to say about this; I would be surprised to see a sloppy game full of turnovers.
My Prediction: Tampa Bay (+7.5) 13 Baltimore 17
Game 3
Philly at Chicago - This is another game that will play a large roll in determining the NFC playoff picture. Both teams are 7-3 and have a slim lead in their division. I think Philly is just too good and Michael Vick is just playing too well for the Bears to stop him. IF they do, you can bet that Julius Peppers will play a large roll in it. I am curious to see what they do to try to contain Vick because it might a good idea to just spy him the entire game. Look for DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to make some big plays deep.
My Prediction: Philly (-3.5) 27 Chicago 20 Game 4
San Diego at Indianapolis - This is the Sunday night game and is more important than usual for both teams. Jacksonville is tied with Indy for the division, has the tie-breaker and is currently ahead of the Giants. San Diego is 5-5 and needs a win to stay pace with Oakland and KC. They have also been hot and I like them to upset the Colts and put both teams at 6-5. Looks for Rivers to tear up the Indy secondary. The Colts will have to put up a ton of points to stick with the Chargers and I think the SD defense will be able to make a play.
Okay, so after some time off we're bringing back some games to watch. We are passed the half way point in the season and the divisional races are getting interesting.
Game 1
Chargers at Texans - This game is huge for both teams because Houston has fallen to third in the division. The Chargers are in a bigger mess at 3-5, they are two and a half games back in a weak AFC West. The Chargers NEED this win to have a decent shot in the division, but KC and Oakland play each other so they won't fall too far back. Houston might need this game even more because Tennessee just picked up Randy Moss and Indy is well, Indy. Look for Houston to try to have a balanced offense, but they will air it out if necessary. Rivers will have a big game as usual, look for him to close in on 400 passing yards.
My Prediction: Chargers (-3) 30 Texans 24
Game 2
KC at Oakland - This is a huge divisional game. Didn't think I would be saying that at the beginning of the year. KC leads Oakland by one in the AFC West, but while KC is squeaking out close ones, the Raiders have looked very good as of recent. I like the Raiders to win and make this division even closer. Both teams will be rooting for Houston to beat SD, but need to take care of their own business. I like McFadden to have a decent game, and don't expect much from KC's passing offense.
My Prediction: Raiders (-1) 24 Chiefs 17
Game 3
Indy at Philly - For some reason the Eagles are favored by three points in this game. That technically means the spread makers feel like these teams are evenly matched. That is very interesting due to how well the Colts have been playing and the fact that the Eagles have been hurt. Vick and DeSean Jackson come back from injury today, and expect big things from them. Peyton should have his way as usual and I'm confused as to why the Colts aren't favored. I would stay away from this game because of the weird spread, but the Colts are probably the safe bet. However, one of my philosophy's is if the spread is weird in one teams direction, take the team you wouldn't typically take. Usually, I would take the Colts, since the spread is weird, the Eagles might be the pick.
LB Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman has been waived by the San Diego Chargers. Teams have until 4 p.m. Wednesday to claim him, or, like Moss, he will become an unrestricted free agent.
Merriman passed his exit physical which allowed his release. This has been expected due to his injury and steroid issues with San Diego. I believe there was some sort of clause in his contract that due to all of the crap, they are obligated to release him.
Merriman's situation is much different from Moss'. Merriman is unbelievably talented and disrupts his team only in the form of injury (apparently the steroid suspension was b.s.). I would love for the Jets to claim Merriman, but since they have such a low priority on the waiver wire, the only real chance is if he clears and becomes a free agent. Gosh knows New York could use the pass rush help.
Don't be surprised if a middle-of-the-pack team with a struggling defense picks him up with the hopes that he provides a spark. St. Louis, for example, has a realistic chance to win their weak division, and I'm sure defensive-minded coach Steve Spagnuolo wouldn't mind having Merriman coming off the edge.
So the season starts with the Super Bowl champs against Adrian Peterson, and there is only 25 combined points. Then, the Skins battle Dallas on Sunday night where only 20 points are scored between the two clubs. Then, a game with arguably the top two defenses, and 19 points are scored between the two.
I can tell you for damn certain that the NFL did not sign up for these ugly, low-scoring, "bad football" games. The Saints chose not to try and score with their high-flying offense. Dallas and Washington both played like it was pre-season with penalties all over the place and no offense. The Jets and Ravens, an expected defensive struggle, play like we all thought. However, the Jets had well over 100 yards in penalties and just played ugly. The Ravens were almost as bad: Flacco looked flat, they turned the ball over and ran the ball 35 times for 49 yards.
Cromartie and Kyle Wilson were called for countless stupid penalties, primarily holding and pass interference. These guys need to look for the ball, it was ridiculous.
Let us talk about the refs for just a bit. If someone hits someone, it is a penalty. You might be thinking, "obviously". However, the Jets were called for one or two penalties like that and the Ravens were just as involved but weren't called for one. The refs can call whatever they want, all I ask for is consistency.
I'm currently watching the end of a surprisingly exciting game at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have a 21-14 lead with under two minutes to play. The Chargers have the ball inside the 10-yardline. I don't know why this is the most exciting game, but it is without a doubt. UPDATE: Chargers had four plays inside the 10. Good defense, KC wins.
One quick note: This is week one, so let us analyze, but not think it is the end of the season with a loss.
One last note: If San Diego, Baltimore, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota, or NYJ come out and play like this next week...they will probably not have a good shot to win the game. Everyone of them was just fortunate that their counterpart also decided to suck at the same time.
Baltimore @ Cinci Chicago @ Dallas Miami @ Minnesota Pats @ Jets Houston @ Washington
As you can tell, every team plays a respectable opponent, two being division games. It will be interesting to see how each team responds to their sloppy play in week one.
Call it what you want, loyalty, fashion, honor, fanaticism, whatever.The odds are if you are reading this blog, you most likely own at least one, probably multiple sports jerseys. I bet each one cost a lot more than the shirt you are wearing now. Unless you are wearing a jersey now, if so, bravo!
The whole thought of jerseys and their cost came to mind today because of the Lebron James circus and secondly, because Capitals goalie Semyon Varlamov announced he is changing his number from 40 to 1.Those events made me think of all the people with James’ Cavaliers jersey, and the masses of people who own jerseys of teams that they love, with player names on them that have changed numbers or moved on long ago. My twitter feed is going nuts with Caps fans complaining about owning a Varlamov #40.
I remember the feeling of buying my first jersey. It was a Caps jersey, the white one with the Eagle on the front, and I was so proud to have #55 and Sergei Gonchar on the back.I picked him because everyone had Jagr or Bondra at the time, and I figured Gonchar would be around for a while and my wife already had a Kolzig.
I was a new partial plan holder and I wanted something to wear to the games.Less and four months later Gonchar was a Bruin, and I was initiated into the club of people who now had “throwback” jerseys.My situation got worse because Gonchar then went and signed with Pittsburgh, whom I can’t stand, so the jersey went to the back of the closet.
I feel for the millions of folks who spent their hard earned money on Lebron James jerseys, both authentic and replicas.Just think, you can sell it on Ebay for 1/3 of what you paid for it. Lord knows you should try and get some of that small fortune back. Most of those costs are licensing fees and profit.
The New Jersey Devils were selling authentic jerseys at their equipment sale a few weeks ago for $100, which is considered a deal for a jersey with no name or number, but has the heavy material and fight strap that a replica lacks.
Basketball and football jerseys are the same way, if you want the nice ones with the names and numbers stitched on, you better be prepared to part with several hundred dollars.Heck even the replicas with silkscreened names and numbers still go for over one hundred dollars, and are wrecked after several trips through the washing machine.
Players these days are so superstitious or are just plain head cases, but we love sports and are more than willing to pay the price for a jersey with their name on it. Take a look on Ebay, you can find almost any jersey you can think of there.The folks who rushed to buy Brett Favre Jets jerseys also come to mind today, heck I saw people with Brett Favre Vikings jerseys before he even announced he was going to play there.Crazy.
The only way to avoid being in this situation is to not buy jerseys at all, and that will never happen, so frame that LaDanian Tomlinson powder blue Chargers jersey, and if you are lucky he’ll get into the Hall of Fame and you won’t feel so bad.
This is an interesting game because, I can't believe it's actually true, it's playoff time and the Dallas Cowboys are red hot. Besides the Chargers I think Dallas is the hottest team in the NFL right now. Right now Tony Romo is playing very well and even Roy Williams is getting into the mix. Miles Austin is having a break out season (sucks for the Jets who chose not to sign him) and the Cowboys are using all three running backs very effectively. The defense, led by DeMarcus Ware, is playing very well as they were second in the NFL in points per game (15.6). The Vikes are winning games but not playing their best football. The defense is playing well as expected but I don't see how they can slow down the Dallas offense which is ranked in the top 10 in passing and rushing. I like Dallas to edge out the Vikes in a game that will have more offense than expected. Look for Brett the...Viking...to turn the ball over a time or two.
My prediction: Cowboys (+2.5) 27 Vikings 20
Jets (+7) at Chargers
The Jets come into this game winning six out of their last seven, impressive right? Well, it would be if the team they were facing hadn't closed out the season winning their last 11 in a row. The Chargers momentum might have been slowed due to the bye week, but that doens't mean that they aren't playing great football. They are my AFC Super Bowl pick. Unfortunately that means they will have to go through my Jets which is going to be devasting for me. I can be realistic though and and see right now that the Chargers are the better team. However, don't be surprised to see my Jets put up a hell of a fight because they match up so well. They play stellar pass defense which is San Diego's strong point. The Chargers aren't too good at stopping the run (117.8 ypg) and the Jets lead the league in rushing with over 170 yards per game. The primary match up is going to be Phillip Rivers combined with his three targets of six foot four inches or taller against Darrelle Revis and the Jets undersized defensive backs. However, also keep an eye on Mark Sanchez and his ability to pass the ball and potentially stretch the field with Braylon Edwards.
My preciction (unfortunately): Jets (+7) 20 Chargers 24
As I promised, my weekly NFL preview will highlight the great games, the sure things, and my own fantasy watch list.
My games to watch this week are Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh andPhiladelphia vs. San Diego. I predict them to be the most competitive and exciting for all 60 minutes.
The Cincinnati Bengals vs. The Pittsburgh Steelers-This is my game of the week. AFC North matchups, excluding the Browns of course, always turn out to be a battle. These games are always won in the trenches. Both teams come into this at 6-2.
The Bengals are undefeated in the division and are showing no signs of slowing down. Carson Palmer has finally stepped up to his true potential following that devastating knee injury. Cedric Benson has proven he is not just a talentless thug. He can actually run the football and really well. He has run for 837 yards and 6 touchdowns. Even more impressive is the teams he has ran well against. He rushed for 237 yards in two victories over the Ravens and 189 against the Bears. Not only have the Bengals been winning games, but they are doing so without having to score 50 points a game. Their defense has been shocking to the point where they are only allowing 16.9 points per game on average.
The Steelers started off nothing like you would expect from the Super Bowl champions. Troy Polamalu went down with a knee injury week 1 and missed the next four games. In the first three games, the Steelers barely snuck by the Titans, lost to the Bears and then again to the Bengals. Since then, they have won 5 straight, and are back to their normal Pittsburgh style of football. Their ground game is not what it used to be, but is looking better every week. Rashard Mendenhall has proven he has what it takes to be the feature back. He ran for 165 yards against a stout San Diego D-line and 155 last week against Mike Nolan’s revamped Denver defense. Big Ben has been Big Ben, and Hines Ward is still Hines Ward.
This game is crucial for both teams. If the Bengals were to win, they would not only be leading the division but they will have swept the SteelCity for the first time since ’98. If the Steelers win they then take over the division and have a serious momentum with a 6-game winning streak. I am going to go with the last decade on this one. Pittsburgh scores another two defensive touchdowns and wins 28-21.
The Philadelphia Eagles vs. The San Diego Chargers-Best of the afternoon games. Both teams are extremely similar and show up when they feel like it.
The Eagles offense has been arguably one of the most inconsistent in the NFL. I just don’t understand how one week they didn’t get in the endzone against Oakland yet they can put up 40 points against the Giants. DeSean Jackson may very well be the key to this team. How about this stat from NFL.com: when DeSean scores, the eagles are 4-1 averaging 32.2 points per game, but when he doesn’t they are only 1-2 averaging 19.3. The Philly defense has been better than expected but not great. They currently stand 10th against the run and 11th against the pass. Another key to this game for Philadelphia could be how many touches Brian Westbrook gets. This will be his first week back from the concussion.
The Chargers are similarly inconsistent all around. The real game plan for them is 3 step drops for Philip Rivers and a quick release. The Eagles like to send chaotic blitz packages and constantly pack 8 into the box. If River’s can manage to get the ball out to Sproles quickly and efficiently, they should be able to control the pace of this game. Vincent Jackson won’t be much of a factor paired up against Samuel, so look for quick screens and short passes all game. The Chargers are ranked 5th in the league and are getting healthy. Don’t expect them to give up much in any form.
I expect this to be the most exciting games of the week. Both of the teams are more than capable on scoring on the big plays. All 6 of DeSean Jackson’s TDs have came from atleast 50 yards out so I expect nothing less. Everyone knows what Darren Sproles can do in the open field so this will come as no surprise. My thoughts are that the Eagles don’t have an answer for Sproles and he runs for 1 TD and receives 2 more. San Diego wins a close one over Philly 34-31.
Sure Things against the spread:
Denver (-3.5) @ Washington
Kansas City (+2) @ Oakland
New York (A) (-7) vs.Jacksonville
Fantasy Predictions:
Start 'Em
Drew Brees against the lack of defense in St. Louis. I wouldn’t be shocked if he throws for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. Expect huge production.
Ray Rice against Cleveland on Monday Night. In front of a national crowd, he will catch and run for possible season high numbers against the abysmal Browns.
Sit 'Em
Jason Campbell. Expect 2-3 interceptions and under 200 yards passing.
Mike Sims-Walker. David Garrard will have no time to throw against the Jets D and no time means minuscule catches. He better hope for some YAC if he wants any production at all. Good Luck.
