NFL Week 6: Paying the bills

By Dan Rodgers

OK, well that warning in the last post about a last week was coincidentally in reference to last week. It was one of the worst football weeks of my entire life.

The Giants started the party by sucking against a team that is so terrible on the road, it's ALMOST a guaranteed win for their opponents. The Seahawks this season, before the Giants game, were 2-0 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS on the road. But that trend isn't just this season, they have been known for being terrible on the road and competitive at home. But of course, since I picked the Giants in every way possible, they lost...

Joining the party were the two backdoor covers in the late games. New England and San Diego both kicked late field goals in their respective games to cover the spread, if you got it late in the week. The Pats opened at -9.5 and won by 9, but they closed at -7. The Chargers were -6 to open the week, but closed at 4.5 and they won by 5. So basically, it was just a whole big mess.

In terms of the headline, "Paying the bills," is in reference to my need to pay my bills. Usually, I am beyond against it, but I am working during the early games this Sunday. The Ravens (girlfriend's team) don't play until 4 and the Jets play MNF. *I know, bring on the boos

So you'll get a video right now for Sunday and I'll throw in some college:



These are my picks for now, but I'm going to review them tonight or tomorrow and possibly make some changes so check back.

Stl/GB 14 I have a new rule to always take the underdog in a double-digit spread, but the exception is if the favorite is undefeated...
Jax/Pit 12 The Steelers aren't undefeated (see above)
Phi 1.5/Was I have to give the Eagles a shot... they lose here and they're done
SF/Det 4 San Fran is playing very well, but I think the Lions can take care of business at home
Car/Atl 4 While Carolina covers all the time, I think Matty Ice will get back on track at home
Ind/Cin 7 The Bengals are way more than 7 points better than Indy... especially at home
Buf/NYG 3 I hate the Giants, but they should rebound at home
Hou/Bal 7.5 The Ravens catch Houston without Andre and Mario...plus Schaub is banged up SURVIVOR (4-1)
Cle/Oak 6.5 Oakland had an emotional win last week and they will have another one at home this week
Dal/NE 6.5 Dallas has a good enough offense to keep up with New England...possible upset but not likely
NO 4.5/TB I LOVE THE SAINTS IN THIS GAME! Tampa might not be as good as everyone thought... the Saints will show that
Min/Chi 3 Interesting game...if Chicago's defense can't get back on track Minnesota can take this SU and AP will have a field day
Mia/NYJ 7 The Jets must win to stay alive and they will cover if Brandon Marshall stays true to his word on getting ejected

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Total: 43-33-1 ATS 53-24 SU

Survivor: I know I got knocked out because of the stupid Giants, but if you're still in, now is the time to take the Ravens. They are a solid favorite and facing a Texans team that is very beat up and missing two of their best players. Baltimore should be able to capitalize in a big way.

Week 6 bold prediction: Should be a big week for the favorites...at least 10 of them cover

Twitter: @dhrodgers52

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