My Bracket

Here is my primary brackets, let me know what you're thinking...

Tourney Time at last

By Dan Rodgers

OK, finally these ridiculous play-in games are over. USF made a statement tonight and I'm sure a ton of people are erasing Temple and filling in USF in that 5/12 match-up.

First off, I am in a few bracket pools. I am in one with my fraternity, I am in one with a bunch of old friends and I'm in one big money one. With all of the information flying around, everyone has been changing their bracket like crazy since the games were announced on Selection Sunday.

I can't decide whether or not to go crazy and pick three different champions in each one or to hope on being right with my gut and picking a similar bracket in each one so if I'm right I bring home the bank. I decided that I'm going to have similar but not exactly the same schools in the Final Four and the same champion over different schools.

I am very "high" on Mizzou. I think they got robbed from a No. 1 seed and even though it appears they will have among the toughest of roads to the championship, I think they are hot enough and talented enough to get there. They play four guards so they are usually undersized compared to their opposition; however, their guards are good rebounders and very efficient shooters. They also are capable of driving and make things happen in the lane.

The main problem with bracket pools is, most likely someone has one very similar to yours. That's why the early rounds are so important. Predicting the one mid-to-low seed that makes a run could be the difference in your bracket. If you are unsure of a game, it most likely won't hurt you too badly as long as no matter who you choose would be losing next round.

I think Kentucky is the obvious and safe pick, which is why you would have to predict the Final Four and championship and champion exactly correct for a chance to win if you have Kentucky. The more common your champion, the more important the early games become. My pool has 50 members, and I'm hoping that no more than 5-8 have Missouri as their champion. I will be able to see tomorrow what the actual numbers are and can then tell you how I feel about it.

Why I think the No. 1 seeds will/could go down early...

Syracuse is now without their starting 7-footer Fab Melo. He is their main rebounder and they struggle to rebound without him as was evident during his absence earlier this season. They won't have a problem in the first round as No. 1 seeds have never lost, but Kansas State (their second-round opponent in my bracket) is a very good offensive rebounding team. I think K State could pull the huge upset, but if they don't then I highly doubt 'Cuse makes it much further than the Sweet Sixteen.

Michigan State is playing fairly well, but they have shown signs of inconsistency this season. They have a very tough road and I think might have drawn the toughest match-up of round two. Memphis is extremely hot and shooting lights out. I honestly believe they are one of the top 10 most talented teams in the tournament. They won 14 of their final 16 games, including the Conference USA championship. I'm not quite sure they can upset Michigan State but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. However, I think Michigan State's bracket is the toughest. They have Missouri as their two seed, Marquette as their three, the ever-so-hot Big East champion Louisville Cardinals as their four and we already know about Memphis. I just don't think the Spartans can survive all of those tests.

Kentucky is the clear favorite to win it all. I have them over Baylor in the Elite Eight, but I think the Bears could pull the upset... and I'll be rooting for them. I'm playing it safe with this one because I might as well get the points if the Wildcats win, but I benefit so much more if they lose because so many people will take them.

I am becoming more and more convinced with how talented UNC is and I have adjusted my bracket accordingly. I think they are a very complete team with a talented inside game coming from Tyler Zeller and of course the highly-touted Harrison Barnes. As long as they can play some defense (see Florida State games), they should make their way to the Elite Eight with relative ease as the Midwest portion seems to be the weakest quarter of the bracket.

A few teams to look out for...

• Florida State - 3 seed - East: I think that the Seminoles are the second best team in their quarter behind Ohio State now that Melo is ineligible. They play incredibly tough defense and could make a deep run if their offense can continue to play well.
• Louisville - 4 seed - West: Similar to last year, Louisville has a ton of momentum after winning the Big East tournament and UConn already showed us last year that momentum is enough to carry you to a championship... Well, momentum and Kemba Walker.
• Vanderbilt - 5 seed - East: Read above. The Commodores ran through the SEC tournament and beat Kentucky to win it all. Similar to Louisville, Vanderbilt will look to ride that momentum and make a deep run.
  
• Indiana - 4 seed - South: The Hoosiers already beat Kentucky once this season, so they have the confidence to do it again.
• Memphis - 8 seed - West: See a few paragraphs above.

The Midwest is just pathetic and it would be amazing if it wasn't Kansas or UNC coming out of that quarter.

I'm going to try to figure out how to post a photo or link to my bracket on here. So expect that sometime tomorrow. The games tip-off at 12:15 p.m. so make sure everything is done and brackets are ready to go way before that so you're not sweating to beat the clock.

Enjoy the first day of games and I'm sure I'll be back during the day to check in. A quick note, my favorite early play is Murray State -5 against Colorado State. The Racers are being completely underrated here because of their showing in the conference tournament. The Rams earned an at-large bid from the Mountain West and that's no easy feat, but I think they will be completely over-matched and the Racers should take this by double digits. CORRECT

Rodgers That

Super Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Yes, today is the day. It's Super Sunday... and I'm not talk about the Super Bowl. This is the first taste that we will get of March Madness. At 6 p.m. we will find out which schools made the NCAA tournament and what seed they earned. Below I will break down each conference and which teams I think will get a bid. The first team is the conference champion (cc) and the rest are at large bids.

America East - Vermont (conference champs)
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure (cc), Temple, Saint Louis, Xavier
ACC - Florida State (cc), UNC, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (cc)
Big 12 - Missouri (cc), Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East - Louisville (cc), Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut
Big Sky - Montana (cc)
Big South - UNC Asheville (cc)
Big Ten - Michigan State (cc), Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West - Long Beach State (cc)
CAA - VCU (cc), Drexel, George Mason
C-USA - Memphis (cc), Southern Miss
Great West - North Dakota (cc)
Horizon - Detroit (cc)
Ivy - Harvard (cc)
MAAC - Loyola Maryland (cc), Iona
Mid-American - Ohio (cc)
MEAC - Norfolk State (cc)
Missouri Valley - Creighton (cc), Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico (cc), San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
NEC - LIU Brooklyn (cc)
Ohio Valley - Murray State (cc)
Pac-12 - Colorado (cc), California
Patriot League - Lehigh (cc)
SEC - Vanderbilt (cc), Kentucky, Florida
Southern - Davidson (cc)
Southland - Lamar (cc)
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State (cc)
Summit League - South Dakota State (cc)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (cc)
West Coast - Saint Mary's (cc), Gonzaga, BYU
WAC - New Mexico State (cc), Nevada

Above is your field of 68. There has been an endless debate about who the four No. 1 overall seeds will be and that is understandable. The top two ranked teams, Kentucky and Syracuse, didn't win their conference tournaments. I still think both of those teams will be awarded a No. 1 seed. I think Missouri joins them. A lot of people think Kansas should be one, but Missouri beat Baylor in that championship game. Baylor had beaten Kansas in the semifinals. Missouri also finished second in the conference and was ranked fifth so it's not crazy. People might think I'm crazy for saying that UNC shouldn't get one, but I was between them and Michigan State. UNC had the edge and if they won their conference tournament there would be no question. However, Florida State beat them and the score doesn't tell the whole story. In my opinion, the Big Ten is better overall than the ACC and Michigan State did beat Ohio State in the final. So the four seeds, in this order, should be:

Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Michigan State

UPDATE: Obviously, as expected, the committee gave UNC the No. 1 seed and Missouri got the two. All of the other predictions for those two seeds are correct, the order is just off.

The No. 2 seeds would then be, in order:

UNC
Kansas
Ohio State
Duke

I could go through every seed but we will just wait for the selection show for that to happen. Good luck to your school if they are on the bubble, and I'll be back later with NBA picks and teams that missed out on the tournament, etc.

UPDATE:

OKAY! Now that we've found out who made it and who didn't, I'm going to bold my correct predictions from above... I'm also going to talk about who I think got screwed and who made it but didn't earn it. I'm not going to bold the conference champs because they obviously earned a seed.

Not bad: I predicted 65 correct out of a possible 68. I gave the mid-majors a bit more love than the committee did. Purdue, Alabama and West Virginia are the three that I did not predict.

(10) Purdue - Iona, Temple and Michigan are the only tournament teams that the Boilermakers beat, one is in-conference and two are mid-majors. They are 1-9 against the AP top 25 and lost by double digits six times to the ranked teams in their conference. They didn't have a strong end to the season to convince the committee and got destroyed by Ohio State in the conference tournament.

(9) Alabama - Wichita State, Purdue (see above), VCU and Georgetown are the only tournament teams that the Crimson Tide beat this season. They were 0-4 against the AP top 25 and had a mediocre season in a below average conference. Bama didn't even beat one of the other three tournament teams in their own conference.

(10) WVU - Kansas State, Georgetown and South Florida are the only tournament teams that the Mountaineers beat this season and two of those are in-conference. They were 1-7 against the AP top 25, and they lost in the second round of the Big East tournament to UConn. They also don't deserve to be that high of a seed, but the committee gave this Big East squad the benefit of the doubt.

I understand that none of the mid-majors I selected to make the tournament faced an AP top 25 team and that their SOS might not have been great. However, the CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences and last season had four teams make it, including one in the Final four. Drexel and Nevada both ended the regular season at the top of their conference and all three teams had 24 or more wins.

Snubs are unfortunate but at leas the tournament got 65 of the 68 correct.

Rodgers That

Better Lucky Than Good

By Dan Rodgers

Unfortunately, my early teaser didn't hit yesterday because Wake decided to suck while Maryland decided to have their best game of the season. Toledo was closer than I thought but that backdoor three was awesome and felt great after an iffy day.

Only one late game sticks out to me tonight in college basketball:

Missouri -5.5 vs. Texas = I know people say it's tough to beat a team three times in a season (Missouri won both regular season matchups), but the Tigers are a much better team than the Longhorns. Texas surprisingly beat Iowa State yesterday and Missouri destroyed Oklahoma State. I just think that the Tigers are hoping that winning the conference tourney (which would most likely mean beating Kansas) would earn them a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. CORRECT

I haven't done very well nor had much of an opinion of the recent NBA games but tonight that changes.

Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 = This spread is way off in my opinion. Now, I haven't been completely on but most of the teams have been on the road. Philly is at home and Utah is a bad road team (5-13). The 76ers are coming off of a 32-point victory of the Celtics and there is no reason the same won't happen here. CORRECT

I also like the Celtics at -3 and Oklahoma City is a huge favorite at -13 but I think they can get it done at home. (Celtics destroyed but Oklahoma City got embarrassed and lost outright. )

Rodgers That

(9) Oklahoma State @ (2) Texas Tech

Alright guys, here is just a quick bit about the Ok St. @ T-Tech game that could possibly decide which team has an opportunity at the national championship. In case you didn't know, both teams are top 10 in the nation in total offensive yards and points per game. However, Ok St. has an unbelievable rush offense (Kendall Hunter/1200 yds. 11 TD) while TTech has the second best pass offense in the nation. It is most likely easier for TTech to adjust to stop the prolific rush offense of Ok St. (who averages over 270 yds. per game) then for Ok St. to stop the aerial attack of TTech who averages over 420 yards per game. Given this, I don’t think that Ok St. will be able to stop Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, and the Red Raiders.

Rodgers’ Pick: Texas Tech 34 Oklahoma State 27


Unlike Rodgers on this one, I am willing to admit that I am 100% on Texas Techs Offense’s nuts. The only thing that I am going to tell you about Ok St. is that the only solid team they have beaten to get to their beloved #9 spot in the questionable BCS standings was Chase Daniel and the Mizzou Tigers. The only other ranked team that they have played was the previously #1 Texas and lost. Remember last week the team that beat those Longhorns, THE TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS. Now I am going to force feed you my opinion of how TTU is one of the top 3 most explosive offenses in all of college football. Graham Harrell has proven that he can pass for 400 yards against any defensive unit. Texas has an elite defense, and when put to the challenge, Harrell threw for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of those touchdowns coming with 8 seconds left to win it. Michael Crabtree, the freak of nature who caught that touchdown, is an all out playmaker. I would say that this sophomore’s performance would be a factor in this game, but honestly, who can stop him.

Price’s Pick: Texas Tech 48 Oklahoma State 24
(RAPE)

Leatherman’s Pick: Texas Tech 38 Oklahoma State 20

Quote of the Post: “Hop off”
(Rodgers referring to Price being all over Michael Crabtree and Texas Tech’s nuts)


Rodgers 0-0
Price 0-0
Leatherman 0-0