Super Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Yes, today is the day. It's Super Sunday... and I'm not talk about the Super Bowl. This is the first taste that we will get of March Madness. At 6 p.m. we will find out which schools made the NCAA tournament and what seed they earned. Below I will break down each conference and which teams I think will get a bid. The first team is the conference champion (cc) and the rest are at large bids.

America East - Vermont (conference champs)
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure (cc), Temple, Saint Louis, Xavier
ACC - Florida State (cc), UNC, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (cc)
Big 12 - Missouri (cc), Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East - Louisville (cc), Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut
Big Sky - Montana (cc)
Big South - UNC Asheville (cc)
Big Ten - Michigan State (cc), Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West - Long Beach State (cc)
CAA - VCU (cc), Drexel, George Mason
C-USA - Memphis (cc), Southern Miss
Great West - North Dakota (cc)
Horizon - Detroit (cc)
Ivy - Harvard (cc)
MAAC - Loyola Maryland (cc), Iona
Mid-American - Ohio (cc)
MEAC - Norfolk State (cc)
Missouri Valley - Creighton (cc), Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico (cc), San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
NEC - LIU Brooklyn (cc)
Ohio Valley - Murray State (cc)
Pac-12 - Colorado (cc), California
Patriot League - Lehigh (cc)
SEC - Vanderbilt (cc), Kentucky, Florida
Southern - Davidson (cc)
Southland - Lamar (cc)
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State (cc)
Summit League - South Dakota State (cc)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (cc)
West Coast - Saint Mary's (cc), Gonzaga, BYU
WAC - New Mexico State (cc), Nevada

Above is your field of 68. There has been an endless debate about who the four No. 1 overall seeds will be and that is understandable. The top two ranked teams, Kentucky and Syracuse, didn't win their conference tournaments. I still think both of those teams will be awarded a No. 1 seed. I think Missouri joins them. A lot of people think Kansas should be one, but Missouri beat Baylor in that championship game. Baylor had beaten Kansas in the semifinals. Missouri also finished second in the conference and was ranked fifth so it's not crazy. People might think I'm crazy for saying that UNC shouldn't get one, but I was between them and Michigan State. UNC had the edge and if they won their conference tournament there would be no question. However, Florida State beat them and the score doesn't tell the whole story. In my opinion, the Big Ten is better overall than the ACC and Michigan State did beat Ohio State in the final. So the four seeds, in this order, should be:

Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Michigan State

UPDATE: Obviously, as expected, the committee gave UNC the No. 1 seed and Missouri got the two. All of the other predictions for those two seeds are correct, the order is just off.

The No. 2 seeds would then be, in order:

UNC
Kansas
Ohio State
Duke

I could go through every seed but we will just wait for the selection show for that to happen. Good luck to your school if they are on the bubble, and I'll be back later with NBA picks and teams that missed out on the tournament, etc.

UPDATE:

OKAY! Now that we've found out who made it and who didn't, I'm going to bold my correct predictions from above... I'm also going to talk about who I think got screwed and who made it but didn't earn it. I'm not going to bold the conference champs because they obviously earned a seed.

Not bad: I predicted 65 correct out of a possible 68. I gave the mid-majors a bit more love than the committee did. Purdue, Alabama and West Virginia are the three that I did not predict.

(10) Purdue - Iona, Temple and Michigan are the only tournament teams that the Boilermakers beat, one is in-conference and two are mid-majors. They are 1-9 against the AP top 25 and lost by double digits six times to the ranked teams in their conference. They didn't have a strong end to the season to convince the committee and got destroyed by Ohio State in the conference tournament.

(9) Alabama - Wichita State, Purdue (see above), VCU and Georgetown are the only tournament teams that the Crimson Tide beat this season. They were 0-4 against the AP top 25 and had a mediocre season in a below average conference. Bama didn't even beat one of the other three tournament teams in their own conference.

(10) WVU - Kansas State, Georgetown and South Florida are the only tournament teams that the Mountaineers beat this season and two of those are in-conference. They were 1-7 against the AP top 25, and they lost in the second round of the Big East tournament to UConn. They also don't deserve to be that high of a seed, but the committee gave this Big East squad the benefit of the doubt.

I understand that none of the mid-majors I selected to make the tournament faced an AP top 25 team and that their SOS might not have been great. However, the CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences and last season had four teams make it, including one in the Final four. Drexel and Nevada both ended the regular season at the top of their conference and all three teams had 24 or more wins.

Snubs are unfortunate but at leas the tournament got 65 of the 68 correct.

Rodgers That

I Hate March Madness

By Dan Rodgers

March Madness is beyond ridiculous. Anyone can beat anyone, my bracket is shot to hell, and I might as well not even write about anything. Clearly Duke sucks and Zona dominated the entire game.

I will only write about Ohio State and maybe Kansas from now on, but with my luck they will both go down tomorrow. All I have to say about the rest of the tournament is that Ohio State is far and above any other team. They have way too many playmakers and too much talent to lose to any of these other teams...but what do I know...

Rodgers That

Sweet Sixteen - Thursday/Late

By Dan Rodgers

So I'm really pissed that BYU got destroyed in overtime. They were outscored by 9 in overtime after being awesome the whole game and keeping it close.

Duke is facing Arizona right now and I expect Duke to do work tonight because Arizona barely escaped Texas and Duke is way better. They can shoot the ball like no other. Williams will have to have the game of his career for Zona to have a chance.

I hope Duke kills them since Zona beat Texas.

Wisconsin faces Butler in an interesting matchup. Butler is so hot right now and coming off of a huge win against top seeded Pittsburgh. I would definitely stay away from this game in terms of betting. If you're going to then you should definitely tease the game...

I'm still upset about BYU and don't feel like writing more...ugh

Rodgers That

Tourney Time

By Dan Rodgers

I want to wish a Happy St. Patrick's Day to everyone. I hope you enjoy it, as well as day one of the NCAA tournament.

The last time I tried to post my bracket it didn't work, but I'll keep trying to get it up here.

I have an all one-seed Final Four...which I am not happy about at all. I think the selection crew might have done something right because all four one seeds look to be the best in their respective region. I have Ohio State beating Kansas in the finals.

I want to mix it up but I just can't do it. Pittsburgh is the weakest one seed but they're in the easiest region. BYU and Florida both got overrated in the seeds, and Kansas State and Wisconsin just aren't that good.

Ohio State looks to be the best team in the tournament so they should make it even though they have a tougher bracket with Syracuse, UNC and Kentucky. Kansas is similar to Pittsburgh, in fact, the entire right side of the bracket is just cake. Notre Dame is good but not that good, and the same goes for Purdue and Louisville. Kansas is just clearly the best team.

Duke's situation is interesting because their two seed, San Diego State, might not be that strong but they also have Texas and UConn in their region. Still, I like Duke to emerge now that Kyrie Irving is supposed to play at some point.

I am trying to find the upset, but this year it seems to be tougher than past years. My two biggest upets, call me crazy, are Penn State and Michigan State both making the Sweet Sixteen. Penn State plays great defense and doesn't turn the ball over. They have Temple in the first round and then most likely San Diego State in the second round.

Michigan State has so much talent and such a phenomenal coach that gets the best from his players come March. I think if Izzo's boys can get past UCLA, they will give two-seed Florida a run for their money (assuming Florida beats UCSB).

Besides that, I have only first round upsets, like Gonzaga, Mizzouri, Marquette and all nine seeds except ODU. I am having a tough time with the Georgetown/VCU game. I didn't expect VCU to dominate USC like they did, and Georgetown's Chris Wright is coming back from injury.

Pitt is the only one seed to play today, but there are 15 other games going on starting with Clemson and West Virginia in an hour. Enjoy the madness, and have a good St. Patty's Day...if you're old enough.

Rodgers That

No Virginia Tech...AGAIN?

By Dan Rodgers

The fact that Va Tech was once again left out of the tournament absolutely infuriates me. Did you know...please read carefully...VIRGINIA TECH is the ONLY TEAM to BEAT A NO. 1 SEED and NOT make it into the NCAA TOURNAMENT.

That is correct. Every other team that beat Duke, Pittsburgh, Ohio St and Kansas all made it in. I was amazed by this stat and I checked it for those of you who think it is too good to be true.

I will break down the tourney more later, but I had to get this off my chest. I really think the selection crew just hates Tech. What do they have to do to get in?

Not to mention their joke of a matchup in the NIT with Bethune-Cookman. Tech might not win just because they are so pissed about not making the NCAA so they will not care about this game.

The madness has already begun.

Rodgers That

Around the league

By Dan Rodgers

Today was a good day for a sports fan:

• NHL all-star game, Team Lidstrom 11 Team Staal 10
• NFL Pro Bowl game, NFC 55 AFC 41
• St. John's 93 Duke 78
• Heat 108 Thunder 103
• Celtics 109 Lakers 96

As you can tell (above), there were a ton of points (or goals) scored today. I don't really have much to say about the NHL game because I think the captains drafting their teams is a complete joke and the league not taking the game seriously.

I thought the AFC was gonna win the Pro Bowl but it's a game where the players just go through the motions and have fun. St. John's shocked me and the rest of the world by completely owning Duke the entire game. The Big East is ridiculous.

The Heat edged the Thunder is a great game. Kevin Durant looked great as usual but it wasn't enough to get past Wade/LeBron/Bosh.

Kobe is amazingly normal I guess. 16-29 for 42 points. However, he was basically the only offense for the Lakers as Pierce, Allen, Rondo and Garnett were all in double figures for the Celts.

THIS JUST IN:

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=310130019

Go to that site and look at Gilbert Arenas' line. He DNP (Did Not Play) for his apparent 'Left Knee CONFUSION'.

They will probably change this as soon as they notice, but I love when things like this get messed up. It's probably from a semester in a news editing class.

Rodgers That

The Way the World Works

By Dan Rodgers

Okay, so this post is going to a be a short description letting you know how the world works as of December 2010. Ready, go.

• Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are Yankees
• Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez in attempt to keep up with Yankees
• Troy Tulowitzki overrated? No sir, best shortstop in the big leagues

• Virginia Tech Hokies are ACC Champs having won 11 straight
• Oregon and Auburn stay unbeaten and head to BCS National Championship, sorry TCU - not this year...better luck next year in the Big East
• Cam Newton is a lock for the Heisman Trophy
  

• Jets and Pats battle Monday night for AFC East supremacy
• Ravens and Steelers battle Sunday night for AFC North supremacy
• The whole NFC is a complete mess and a .500 or sub-.500 team may win their division

• UNC Men's BBall is a joke even though they beat Kentucky by two at home
• On the other hand, Duke is playing at the level they are ranked, No. 1

• The Heat don't look too hot with their "Big 3"
• Why is the Western Conference so much better than the Eastern?
  
• Anyone surprised by New Orleans(13-6) and Utah(15-6), I sure am...

• Caps, Pens tied for most points in NHL - surprise surprise...
• Why is the Eastern Conference so much better than the Western?

As you can tell, quite a bit is going on in the sports world. Some eyebrow-raising, some not. The point is, it's unpredictable. I love it and I love that Jeter and Mo re-signed. It's no surprise that the Sox gone Gonzalez, but I was hoping SD would keep him. The NFL is beyond nuts and don't get me started on NCAA Basketball. The NHL seems to be the most predictable with the NBA being somewhat surprising. We'll see where we're at in a month or so.

Rodgers That

FINAL: NCAA Championship...anybody care?

By Dan Rodgers

Wow, is this last minute or what?

(1) Duke has finally made it back to the NCAA Championship, their first appearance since winning the whole thing in 2001. They face off against (5) Butler. What's that...you think I just had a typo? Nope, Butler has actually won 25 games in a row and now face Duke for the whole dang thing... now this is what I call March Madness.

Duke is favored by 6.5 points...

Personally, I think Butler is either going to pull the biggest upset in championship history since eight-seeded Villanova beat powerhouse Georgetown. Yes, back in the day with Patrick Chewing... er, I mean Ewing.

Butler is either going to cover the spread and beat Duke out right, or get clobbered like Michigan State did last year. I would love to see Butler win, but the realist in me says I don't see how Duke can lose. Look for Nolan Smith to have another big game. Don't expect Butler to stick with the Blue Devils if Matt Howard doesn't play...unless Gordon Hayward goes off from three...

Duke 73 Butler 58

Duke 61 Butler 59 FINAL

Duke wins another championship :( and they are the first team to score over 60 points on Butler during the tournament...Butler...PLEASE prove me wrong!

Rodgers That

Final Four Preview

By Dan Rodgers

Game One:

(5)Butler vs. (5) Michigan State

This game is probably the lesser of the two...in terms of people being interested. However, this is a very intriguing match-up in my mind. Butler is probably the hottest team in the tournament having won 24 games in a row. Michigan State lost their best player in Kalin Lucas, but seem to just squeak by their opponents. They have only won one of their games by more than one possession: one took place on a game winning shot and won involved the other team missing a chance to tie the game.

Even though the spread right now is Butler by a point, but I think if they won it would be an upset. I think they will win, even though I have great respect for Tom Izzo and the Spartans. This will defnitely be another close game. It could go either way, but I just don't see how Butler can lose being on such a hot streak. Look for Matt Howard to have another huge game.

Butler 73 Mich St 69

Game Two:

(2) West Virginia vs. (1) Duke

Well, I personally am amazed because I thought Duke was clearly the worst one seed in the tournament. They are clearly playing well though. However, I think besides Butler, West Virginia may be the next hottest team having won the Big East tournament to earn their two seed. Losing their starting point guard didn't seem to phase them during their convincing win over the Kentucky Wildcats. If West Virginia is going to get their shot at whoever wins the early game, Devin Ebanks will have to have a great game.

Duke's last loss was exactly one month ago to ACC rival Maryland. That loss only seems to have motivated them because they haven't lost since. Brian Zoubek has been playing out of his mind and Nolan Smith is hoping match his late father and win the NCAA championship. I think Smith will have to have a career game in order to get past the defensive minded Mountaineers. Duke is favored by three points and I like WVU to at least push that spread if not pull the upset.

WVU 71 Duke 65

Rodgers That

Final Four Tourney Talk

By Dr. Jekyll,

With the nets cut down and Tom Izzo reaffirming his place among the best coaches of all time (not to mention Coach K), it’s time to take a look at this year’s final four, probably the most random bunch of participants in years.

Let’s start at the top, or at least, the top team left (numerically anyway). Mike Krzyzewski has proven once again to be a coaching genius, leading a relatively weak team into the Final Four. Duke haters (myself included) can point to the really easy bracket they had compared to their counterpart one seeds, but ultimately, they’re here. Duke’s a streaky 3-point shooting team behind Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith (who put up a career high in points in the regional round), and if any of them catch fire in the remaining games they’ll be tough to beat.
The first task at toppling the Blue Devils falls on the long arms of West Virginia’s defenders. The 1-3-1 defense that I can’t even pretend to understand that the Mountaineers employ has been devastating this tournament, let alone this season. In their dismembering of Kentucky, they held the Wildcats to open 0 for 20 behind the ark. Take a second to soak that in. The Mountaineers held a fantastic team hit-less for three, and they’re going up against one of the strongest three point shooting teams in the country. Sounds like a battle of offense vs. defense in this one. I really can’t see them holding down so many proficient scorers two games in a row. Playing their best basketball at the right time is helpful, but it may not be enough for the Mountaineers to upend Duke.

The other match-up heading into the weekend is interesting, if for nothing else we are guaranteed to see a 5 seed in the championship game. The aforementioned Izzo lucked out to no degree in his ability to maneuver what is one of his weaker squads to a Final Four appearance. Losing Kalin Lucas hasn’t seemed to hinder the Spartans thus far, and more so than last year against UNC there isn’t any absolutely dominant team to keep Michigan from the title. Butler, on the other hand, is just happy to be here. Playing in front of a friendly crowd is helpful, and let’s not forget this team put the kibosh on both Syracuse and Kansas State. As scary as it may seem, Butler has a legitimate chance at a National Title in their first Final Four appearance ever. It’ll take another near perfect performance from the Bulldogs to push a game deeper into the tournament. With no real star players left to take over games, this looks to be a close game until the end.

With just days left in one of the most exciting tournaments in recent memory, with brackets busted at every turn, it’s only fitting we may see so many story lines unfold. Two of the best coaches in College basketball look towards adding another fond memory, while out of nowhere Butler and defense dominating West Virginia try and win their first titles in school history. With March almost over, make sure you don’t miss the madness.

Tourney Talk

By Dr. Jekyll

This was supposed to be an article about how to pick tournament winners. How to avoid the suckers bet and walk away from your bracket with your head held high. About knowing what upsets to call, how to root against a 5 seed, and understanding that your completely understandable hatred of Duke is fine, but they won’t lose in the first round.

And then some team from Northern Iowa shot my bracket in the foot, and just as it started hobbling St. Mary’s took out Villanova.

But despite the fact that there’s no hope for getting the right champion, I still have 7 of the elite 8 hanging around. So what are the keys to tournament success?

I’ll tell you.

1. Pick upsets early. Other than giving all of the 1, 2, and 3 seeds a free pass (Georgetown not withstanding). After that, seeding really doesn’t mean much. Every year some 12’s come out of nowhere (Murray State and Washington this year) and “shock you”. When in doubt, just pick the cooler mascot.

2. But don’t listen to experts. More than anything, everyone is a bandwagon fan. A team like UTEP goes from a nice side pick to suddenly a magic 8-ball that you can’t turn away from on ESPN. The moment you hear them talking about some special team, dump em.

3. Same for Cinderella. Double digit seeds push their way into the Sweet 16 every year, but don’t get cute. With the exception of George Mason, it’s never a good idea to throw a bunch of 9’s and 10’s into your Final Four.

4. On that same note, always have at least a 1 in your Final Four. They’re ranked as the top teams in the country for a reason. No matter what else happens, they earned that seed at some point, and the chances of the four “best” teams dropping out are pretty poor.

5. Watch the injury reports early. If you do nothing else with college basketball, pay attention when players go down during their respective Conference Tournaments. Basketball injuries linger.

6. Pray. Let’s be honest, you’ve watched maybe five college basketball games all year. You spend about three days reading every column you can find on trendy picks, and ultimately you have no idea what you’re doing. But there’s nothing more fun in the world than screaming at your TV for some mid-major that you’ve never heard of (GO BAYLOR!) to make it to the finals and show everyone else just how much of a champion you are.

So go curl up a comfy seat for the last few days of the tournament. Angrily yell at kids who aren’t even able to legally drink to win your $400 pool. And always bring your bracket.

Mid-Season NCAA Hoops Review

By Toddy P.

I was watching the Purdue at Mich St. game last night, and really thought about how this year in college basketball differs from any other? What are the new trends we are beginning to see? Why is it that teams such as New Mexico and UNLV are climbing up in the top 25 yet the current National Champion, UNC, is under .500 in the ACC?

First, let's take a look at a couple of teams that are no where near what was expected.

UNC:
They started off this season unimpressive but still not terrible. Up until the New Year, this team had only suffered three losses, all of which were against ranked opponents (Syracuse, Kentuckty, and Texas). The major turning point moment of their season was the overtime loss to the College of Charleston. This was their last game before conference play and they have since gone 2-6 in the ACC. Tonight's game against Duke may be the only chance the Tarheels have to turn their season around. Even if UNC pulls off the "W" they would still need to make a run in the ACC tournament to make a good argument for them to deserve a tournament bid. My advice: Forget this season ever happened and rebuild. It's very difficult to hold onto greatness when you lose three top caliber seniors, Hansborough, Lawson and Green. No shot this year, better luck next.

Vanderbilt:
I am more than happy to see the Commodores playing at this level. They have chocked the SEC and are preparing for a great shot to make a run in the tournament. It's all about who gets hot at the right time and there are not many teams as hot as Vanderbilt. The key victories of their season have been the two victories over Tennessee. They have won by a combined 28 points and have used these two games to launch themselves into the top 25. The big test for this team still remains. On Feb. 20, Kentucky comes to town. Vandy needs to come into this game with confidence and quickness. Hit Kentucky in the mouth early and often and you can get ready for a big run in the NCAA tourny.

What makes this year different?
The term upset has taken on a different meaning. By this, I meant aht the field is starting to even out. Most conferences are now fairly close from top to bottom in talent. When March Madness rolls around, look for the seeding to matter far less than ever before. A 12 seed over a five will seem like nothign this year. I am going all out and will say that this year will be the first that a 16 seed will overtake a one. Call me crazy but you heard it here first.

New Trends.
Consistency is lacking. The reason this is that too many teams are now depending on one or two players to carry them. Teams are beginning to shoot the three more and more causing games to depend entirely on shooting percentage. The few teams that are good all around and deep are going to be the ones left standing in the end. To all those other teams, do me a favor and go back to the fundamentals. Scottie Reynolds - learn to pass the ball. I blame the loss to Georgetown entirely on you and your uncanny ability to hand the ball off to the other team. Take fewer and better shots and give your teammates a chance. The other trend I am starting to see is also a fundamental error. Focus on foul shots. I have never seen anything like this. So many teams are losing games because they are shooting below 65 percent from the free throw line. This has a lot to do with why tournament upsets will be in extreme abundance this year.

If you haven't noticed yet, NCAA baketball has been turned on its head and will not fix itself anytime soon. Look forward to the most exciting tournament in years.

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