CBB Lite

By Dan Rodgers

Today there aren't too many games, but a lot of the games are good ones. I'm going to start with Memphis. They play the smoking hot Marshall.

Marshall @ Memphis -12 = The Thundering Herd destroyed Southern Methodist and beat Tulsa in three overtimes before a convincing 9-point win over Southern Miss. A lot of people are picking Marshall because they are so hot, but I think they are going to run out of gas. I expect them to hang with the Tigers early and for Memphis to pull away in the second half. The Tigers are also hot, and playing at home. Memphis has won six in a row, all by double digits, and is shooting lights out this season (fifth in nation in FG%). CORRECT

I'll be back in a bit and post more games...

I like Ohio State, Michigan didn't play very well yesterday. The 7.5 is a bit high, but the pick would definitely be them - CORRECT. I also like Missouri (-3) over Baylor.

Colorado vs. Arizona -3.5 = The Wildcats beat the Buffaloes by 14 in the regular season. I think they are clearly the better team and couldn't believe that the line was so low. I don't have much else to say other than I think Colorado much struggle offensively. I think this is an easy win. INCORRECT

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt -6.5 = Vandy destroyed Ole Miss by 26 in the regular season. They are coming off of a 22-point win over Georgia, and I can't figure out for the life of my why this line isn't bigger. I don't see any reason why Vandy doesn't give us a repeat performance for an easy win. CORRECT

I'm going to try to hit a sweetheart teaser because the lines work so well:

NC State vs. UNC -1 = Bringing this line down to one is what makes this so damn appealing. The Wolfpack has been playing well recently but I don't see anyway they can beat UNC. The Tarheels are smoking right now and looking to leave no doubt that they deserve a No. 1 seed in the tournament. CORRECT

Massachusetts +11.5 vs. St. Bonaventure = UMass has just been playing really well the last few games and I don't see this one turning into a blowout. I'm not too well versed on these two A-10 teams, but getting 11.5 after UMass beat the Bonnies outright earlier in the season sounds good to me. CORRECT

Wisconsin +12 vs. Michigan State = I usually don't like picking against the Spartans because they are such a dangerous team. However, the Badgers have been playing incredibly well as of recent and I think their tough defense will keep them in this game. INCORRECT - The Badgers cut the lead to 11 with 20 seconds left and for some reason felt the need to foul. MSU made both to make the lead 13. Wisconsin missed a three and a layup after getting the offensive rebound... a very brutal way to lose.

I'll be back later with some NBA.

There isn't much I like in the NBA tonight, because all of the bad teams are on the road playing good teams and the spreads are huge.

Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls -11 = I know this is a big spread, but I made a play against the Jazz last night and it paid off. As I said last night, Utah is an awful road team and they lost by 13 in Philly yesterday. There is no reason for them to not be dominated again tonight by the Bulls. CORRECT

Also, I like the UNDER 197 in the OKC/Charlotte game. Charlotte has trouble scoring anyway and five of the Thunder's last seven games have gone under. INCORRECT

Rodgers That

Better Lucky Than Good

By Dan Rodgers

Unfortunately, my early teaser didn't hit yesterday because Wake decided to suck while Maryland decided to have their best game of the season. Toledo was closer than I thought but that backdoor three was awesome and felt great after an iffy day.

Only one late game sticks out to me tonight in college basketball:

Missouri -5.5 vs. Texas = I know people say it's tough to beat a team three times in a season (Missouri won both regular season matchups), but the Tigers are a much better team than the Longhorns. Texas surprisingly beat Iowa State yesterday and Missouri destroyed Oklahoma State. I just think that the Tigers are hoping that winning the conference tourney (which would most likely mean beating Kansas) would earn them a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. CORRECT

I haven't done very well nor had much of an opinion of the recent NBA games but tonight that changes.

Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 = This spread is way off in my opinion. Now, I haven't been completely on but most of the teams have been on the road. Philly is at home and Utah is a bad road team (5-13). The 76ers are coming off of a 32-point victory of the Celtics and there is no reason the same won't happen here. CORRECT

I also like the Celtics at -3 and Oklahoma City is a huge favorite at -13 but I think they can get it done at home. (Celtics destroyed but Oklahoma City got embarrassed and lost outright. )

Rodgers That

NCAAB Must Love Me

By Dan Rodgers

WOW! Yesterday was awesome and I was fortunate to be on the winning side of two close covers. The Pitt game early and the Toledo game late. I don't have too much time right now, and I will post more in depth later, but I wanted to post this sweetheart teaser I like for the early games.

8-point teaser:

Iowa +9.5 vs. Illinois = I know the only game between these two was an 11-point win for Illinois, but that was in Illinois and this is the conference tournament. Mediocre teams usually get up to play in their conference tournament and that's what makes college basketball so great. This should be a close one down to the wire and I think Iowa wins outright. CORRECT - I was right about the easy cover and outright win...

Wake Forest +12.5 vs. Maryland = This one is simple; they played once during the regular season and that was a six-point Maryland win at home. Both teams suck so this shouldn't be a blowout. INCORRECT - Seriously... why does Maryland have to play their best game of the season when I pick against them?

UConn +15 vs. Syracuse = UConn is so experienced and they had a hell of a comeback yesterday. This is just what they do and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset right here. They definitely shouldn't get blown out in a game that could decide their NCAA tournament fate. CORRECT - easy money... UConn should have won outright

I gotta run real quick so I just wanted to post that I like Marquette -3 the most during the 7 o'clocks. I will be back on to post about some late games that I like and about the teaser above.

I'll be back with more later!

I'm going to give my squeeze on a few late games. Unfortunately, every time Marquette gets back in the game they fall behind by 10 again. Pathetic game by Jae Crowder...

Toledo +11 vs. Ohio = This line couldn't be more puzzling... Toledo has won three in a row including their first round game against Central Michigan. Ohio has had an excellent season (24-7) but lost their only regular season game against Toledo by four. I just don't see a 15-point turnaround so I'll take my chances and ride the Toledo Rockets. CORRECT - WOW!

Georgia vs. Mississippi State -5 = Even though the Bulldogs (GA) beat the Bulldogs (MS) by two in overtime in their only regular season matchup, Georgia has no chance of making the tournament except for an unlikely conference tournament championship. Mississippi State is still alive and could use a few convincing wins in the conference tourney to pad their resume. INCORRECT - Apparently Miss St doesn't care...

Rodgers That

Everyone Loves the Big East Tourney

By Dan Rodgers

I am going to come back to this post and update it a little bit later today. I just wanted to post my pick for the UConn/WVU game.

Connecticut -2 vs. West Virginia = UConn has won their last two games, including a blowout against DePaul yesterday in the first round. Jim Calhoun is back and I think he is the difference. West Virginia just had a solid win at South Florida to end the regular season, but USF struggles offensively. UConn is experienced and they were just in this position last season and I think that gives them a huge advantage. Look for them to get it done again today. CORRECT - are you kidding me? This game was incredibly exciting... even more so because we came out on top!

Expect more later today...

UCLA -12 vs. USC = Southern Cal is a top football program in the nation, but they are in the cellar of the Pac-12 and rarely provide anything cheer-worthy. UCLA has been playing fairly well recently even though they are having an down season. USC constantly gets destroyed and there is no reason to expect anything less tonight. UCLA needs to win the conference tournament if they want to make the NCAA tournament so they should leave it all on the court. CORRECT

South Florida -2 vs. Villanova = Nova is having an extremely disappointing season. Usually, when a team sweeps Nova, it's something to be proud of and put on your NCAA tournament resume, unfortunately for USF, that's not the case this season. The Bulls need to win tonight and possibly in the next round to try to get off the bubble. They are a solid defensive team and are desperate for a win. CORRECT

Central Michigan vs. Toledo -2.5 = The Rockets gave us a scare the other night when they blew a double digit lead. Thankfully, they ended the game on an 8-0 for the easy cover. The Chippewas are terrible this season so Toledo should find similar success tonight. They split during the regular season, but I'm not concerned especially because the conference tournament is in Ohio. CORRECT

NBA

L.A. Lakers -7 @ Washington Wizards = I would be surprised if lightning struck the same place twice. Kobe was off in the beginning of the game last night. He should be fine tonight since he switched back to his original mask, and the Wizards are a team I could've added to the list with Charlotte and Detroit. However, I'm sure the Lakers want to prove last night was a fluke so they shouldn't let up on the gas. Not crazy about this one though. INCORRECT - don't even get me started...

I'm confident that tonight will be better... and if it isn't... I might have to stop picking!

Rodgers That

What'd we learn?

By Dan Rodgers

OK, last night was clearly an indication that I shouldn't just post a few thoughts before the games without during my usual research. On Saturday, I knew my stuff and had a fairly successful day hitting four out of five of my college basketball picks. Last night, at one point or another, every team I picked looked like they were going to cruise to an easy cover. Let's review...

The Orlando Magic defense was embarrassed last night, giving up 100 points to a Bobcats team that accomplished the feat for just the fifth time this season. Charlotte scored 13 points over their season average, and while Charlotte on average gives up 100 points per game, they only gave up 84 to a Magic team that scored nearly 10 points below their average. The difference was mainly in the fourth quarter. However, we saw spurts early on in the game. Orlando was up big in the second quarter before the Bobcats went on a 12-0 run in three minutes to end the quarter. That was a huge turning point in the game because that made the halftime deficit five instead of 17. Charlotte had taken the lead by the end of the third quarter and then Orlando's defense hit a wall in the fourth, only managing a pathetic 13 points. They were outscored by 15, which was just about the difference.

Similarly, the Lakers were up seven after the first quarter, and we all once again thought we were going to cruise to an easy victory. However, a pathetic second quarter (17pts) led to a four-point halftime deficit. However, the defense picked up the slack after half and held the Pistons to nine points in the third quarter. The Lakers were once again up seven and we all assumed they had gotten their act together. However, the offense was once again pathetic in the fourth quarter (17pts) and L.A. only managed 78 points in regulation against a Pistons squad that on average gives up just under 96 points per game. That is seriously embarrassing, but what is even worse, not only did they not get their act together for OT, they lost outright also!

Last night was crazy in the NBA because in three out of the six games the underdog won outright, making the spread off in those games by 8.5 points or more. Vegas must have loved that.

NCAAB wasn't much better... I threw you North Texas, Villanova and Valparaiso...

North Texas was up 55-42 in the second half, but then they realized that they need to blow their huge lead like everyone else, and they were outscored 32-15 the rest of the game.

Villanova was actually down four at half but left no doubt in the second half and just destroyed Rutgers by 21 (the only bright spot of the night).

After sweeping Detroit in the regular season, the Crusaders held a 31-25 lead early in the second half. However, Detroit took the lead after an 11-0 run, and while Valparaiso cut the lead to one possession, the Titans eventually pulled away for a 20-point victory and a NCAA berth.

The Big East tourney is the main attraction right now, so I'll be back later with some thoughts on the early games today.

Let's hope for a better day than yesterday!

Rodgers That

Consistency is key

By Dan Rodgers

I have class like right now and I've had class all day so this one is the definition of a quickie...

Once again, we have the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons playing tonight. Since both are at home, against the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively, we are getting value. These teams just suck wherever they play.

Orlando Magic -9 @ Charlotte Bobcats = The Bobcats have no one to matchup with Dwight Howard in the middle, and we all know that Orlando is one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA from beyond the arc. This one shouldn't even be close at halftime.

Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 @ Detroit Pistons = The Lakers are having an off season compared to their track record, but they are still among the best in the NBA with All-World guard Kobe Bryant. No reason why L.A. doesn't take this one easily against a completely over-matched Pistons squad.

Nothing tickles me too much in NCAAB, but a few picks are: Villanova, North Texas, and Valparaiso.

Enjoy the games while I'm in class!

Rodgers That

Picking Dirty

By Dan Rodgers

So I didn't post anything the past two days. However, I did pick the Pacers and Grizzlies (both hit), however, I got screwed by a 41-point 4th quarter by the Jazz who scored eight points in the final 20 seconds.

A basic rule of thumb I go by in the NBA: Charlotte, Detroit and New Orleans are terrible. I know Detroit has 12 wins compared to only four my Charlotte, but the Pistons are awful and always look to go against them when they are on the road or facing a damn good team (like Memphis). The Bobcats are just the worst team in the NBA bar none. They give up 15 more points per game than they score, which means the odds are in your favor to go with the other team. Plus, the good part is that the Bobcats often fall far behind early and don't fight back so you can coast to an easy win. The Hornets tend to fight at home, but Indiana is way better and a matchup nightmare. However, against a mediocre team, the Hornets tend to put up a good fight at home but often get blown out on the road.

As for NCAAB yesterday, I loved Memphis early. That game was a blowout as expected. I also liked UConn, and Jim Calhoun didn't let us down in his first game back. Unfortunately, I was on the losing side of only the second home loss of the season for South Florida. Beating West Virginia and clinching the fourth seed and a double-bye in the Big East tournament would have all but locked up their ticket to the NCAA tournament but they disappointed big time.

There wasn't too much I liked the rest of the day... But let's move on to today...

Kentucky -5 @ Florida = The No. 1 ranked team plays their final game of the season today and they look to become the third team since 1956 to go undefeated in the SEC. They handled the Gators easily last time and Florida has lost their last two. I think Kentucky will get it done and cover the five points. I'm not crazy about them but definitely confident. CORRECT

Michigan -5 @ Penn State = This line puzzles me... Michigan beat the Nittany Lions at home by 18 points. Once again, I don't feel that Penn State deserves 13 points just for being at home. Also, State has lost their last three, including a 24-point beat-down at Purdue. I think Michigan should take care of business again, especially because they are still fighting for first place in the Big Ten. CORRECT

Ohio State @ Michigan State -3.5 = The Spartans beat the Buckeyes by 10 in Ohio and I think they can sweep the season series. State controls their own destiny, if they win, they win the Big Ten regular season title. INCORRECT - MichSt was up nine at half and lost outright.

Siena @ Loyola Maryland -6.5 = Loyola is having a great season and they swept the regular season series with wins by seven and 11. I see no reason for them to not win this game convincingly as well. CORRECT

Purdue @ Indiana -6 = The Hoosiers won at Purdue by 17. Now Indiana is at home and I think we are getting a bargain with a line of six. Purdue is a decent team and they definitely fight until the very end, but Indiana is coming off of a huge 15-point win over Michigan State and I think they follow that up with another big win. CORRECT

NBA

I'm not currently crazy about any games, but I'm going to re-evaluate later and I might add something.

UPDATE:

New York Knicks +2 @ Boston Celtics = So I didn't want to make a play and I just wanted to watch this great game. If I would have done something, I would have teased the Knicks. It was a great game so I hope you caught it. DIDN'T PICK

New Jersey Nets -4.5 @ Charlotte Bobcats = So I ended up deciding that the Nets are a decent enough road team to take care of business. With Lopez back to playing in the paint, they'll take care of business. INCORRECT - The Nets dominated the second half after an iffy first half, they were covering but a couple of late buckets allowed Charlotte to kick the backdoor wide open... What a waste of a 57-point performance by D-Will... also, the Bobcats went 37/39 from the charity stripe, the Nets missed 11 FTs... it happens

Other Notes: I like the Rockets to win at home (the spread is around -1), and I also think the 76ers will give Chicago all they can handle and should cover as well at home (spread is around +4).

Enjoy the games for the rest of the night.

Rodgers That