The Ever So Sweet 16

By Dan Rodgers

UPDATE: Not a very sweet night thus far. Look below for last second thoughts on each game.

Even though countless people had their brackets busted in the round of 64 with the losses of Missouri (my champion) and Duke, they might not be eliminated from the pools. I know that in my pool I can still tie for first if everything goes perfectly. So tonight could be the final make or break for your bracket, especially if you picked a No. 1 seed to go down tonight. My picks below:

(4) Wisconsin vs. (1) Syracuse -3 = I don't know about you but Syracuse showed me a lot in their last game. They struggled mightily in their match-up with UNC-A, but the Orange really responded with a convincing win over Kansas State. I thought KSU was going to really give Syracuse all they could handle, and while it was a one-point game at the half, Syracuse pulled away in the second half. KSU did what I expected in dominating the boards and especially the offensive glass (22-8 advantage); however, Syracuse shot very efficiently and played solid defense holding the Wildcats to just over 31% shooting. I think that this will be more of a scorefest than people probably think. I think people (me) underestimated the talent on Syracuse and maybe they can still make a deep run without Fab Melo. INCORRECT - The Orange played a solid game against a good defensive team. However, they got outscored in the second half after having a 6-point halftime lead. Wisconsin made 14 threes! That is unbelievable. They shot almost 10% better from three than overall. Not to mention, Syracuse missed the front end of a 1-and-1 at the end that could have led to a push.

(4) Louisville +5.5 vs. (1) Michigan State = This should be an excellent game. For my bracket, this is the most important game of the night. I am one of the few people in my pool who has the Cardinals over the Spartans. I can't help but be reminded of the run UConn made in last year's tournament when I think of Louisville. Obviously, they both came out of the Big East. Louisville is playing great defense, they've held their first two opponents to under 40% shooting and forced double-digit turnovers. The Billikens gave the Spartans all they could handle and they had a poor shooting night. If Louisville can be efficient and play their usually tough defense, I don't see any reason why the Cardinals can't win this game outright. CORRECT - well, Louisville won outright just like I needed them to for my pool. This game was just about the only positive for me the whole night.

(6) Cincinnati +7.5 vs. (2) Ohio State = I do have OSU winning this game outright, but I can't believe how high this line is. Cincy played extremely well and pulled the upset last week against a very tough Florida State team. Given the tough defense that the Bearcats have been playing (haven't given up 60 points or more in their last three games), it should be a good match-up with a Buckeyes squad that averages 75 points-per-game. Cincinnati's Yancy Gates should be able to match-up with Sullinger in the paint, and I fully expect Cincy to key in on Buford. If they want a shot in this game, they will need to make sure they don't get killed by the three-pointer. INCORRECT - After Cincy took a four-point lead, I didn't think there was any way they would get outscored by more than 12 the rest of the way. They had all of the momentum, but they couldn't stop fouling and turning the ball over. What a disaster/terrible defensive effort...

(7) Florida vs. (3) Marquette -2 = The reason I liked Missouri to make it out of their bracket is because of their likely match-ups. They would have faced these teams. Florida is very similar to Missouri and Marquette likes to play to their opponent. Luckily for the Golden Eagles, Florida doesn't have many experienced big men. When Marquette faced BYU it was a scorefest, and they adjusted to a more defensive game when they played Murray State. I fully expect this to be a high scoring game, and I just think Marquette has more experience and talent. INCORRECT - The Golden Eagles shot under 30% from three and 30% from the field. Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom both had 5-15 shooting nights, and you can't expect to win when both of your top players struggle.

This should be an excellent night of games so try to enjoy it. This is clearly where everyone's attention will be, and there isn't much I like in the NBA tonight anyway. Hope your bracket stays intact.

Rodgers That

Tourney Time at last

By Dan Rodgers

OK, finally these ridiculous play-in games are over. USF made a statement tonight and I'm sure a ton of people are erasing Temple and filling in USF in that 5/12 match-up.

First off, I am in a few bracket pools. I am in one with my fraternity, I am in one with a bunch of old friends and I'm in one big money one. With all of the information flying around, everyone has been changing their bracket like crazy since the games were announced on Selection Sunday.

I can't decide whether or not to go crazy and pick three different champions in each one or to hope on being right with my gut and picking a similar bracket in each one so if I'm right I bring home the bank. I decided that I'm going to have similar but not exactly the same schools in the Final Four and the same champion over different schools.

I am very "high" on Mizzou. I think they got robbed from a No. 1 seed and even though it appears they will have among the toughest of roads to the championship, I think they are hot enough and talented enough to get there. They play four guards so they are usually undersized compared to their opposition; however, their guards are good rebounders and very efficient shooters. They also are capable of driving and make things happen in the lane.

The main problem with bracket pools is, most likely someone has one very similar to yours. That's why the early rounds are so important. Predicting the one mid-to-low seed that makes a run could be the difference in your bracket. If you are unsure of a game, it most likely won't hurt you too badly as long as no matter who you choose would be losing next round.

I think Kentucky is the obvious and safe pick, which is why you would have to predict the Final Four and championship and champion exactly correct for a chance to win if you have Kentucky. The more common your champion, the more important the early games become. My pool has 50 members, and I'm hoping that no more than 5-8 have Missouri as their champion. I will be able to see tomorrow what the actual numbers are and can then tell you how I feel about it.

Why I think the No. 1 seeds will/could go down early...

Syracuse is now without their starting 7-footer Fab Melo. He is their main rebounder and they struggle to rebound without him as was evident during his absence earlier this season. They won't have a problem in the first round as No. 1 seeds have never lost, but Kansas State (their second-round opponent in my bracket) is a very good offensive rebounding team. I think K State could pull the huge upset, but if they don't then I highly doubt 'Cuse makes it much further than the Sweet Sixteen.

Michigan State is playing fairly well, but they have shown signs of inconsistency this season. They have a very tough road and I think might have drawn the toughest match-up of round two. Memphis is extremely hot and shooting lights out. I honestly believe they are one of the top 10 most talented teams in the tournament. They won 14 of their final 16 games, including the Conference USA championship. I'm not quite sure they can upset Michigan State but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. However, I think Michigan State's bracket is the toughest. They have Missouri as their two seed, Marquette as their three, the ever-so-hot Big East champion Louisville Cardinals as their four and we already know about Memphis. I just don't think the Spartans can survive all of those tests.

Kentucky is the clear favorite to win it all. I have them over Baylor in the Elite Eight, but I think the Bears could pull the upset... and I'll be rooting for them. I'm playing it safe with this one because I might as well get the points if the Wildcats win, but I benefit so much more if they lose because so many people will take them.

I am becoming more and more convinced with how talented UNC is and I have adjusted my bracket accordingly. I think they are a very complete team with a talented inside game coming from Tyler Zeller and of course the highly-touted Harrison Barnes. As long as they can play some defense (see Florida State games), they should make their way to the Elite Eight with relative ease as the Midwest portion seems to be the weakest quarter of the bracket.

A few teams to look out for...

• Florida State - 3 seed - East: I think that the Seminoles are the second best team in their quarter behind Ohio State now that Melo is ineligible. They play incredibly tough defense and could make a deep run if their offense can continue to play well.
• Louisville - 4 seed - West: Similar to last year, Louisville has a ton of momentum after winning the Big East tournament and UConn already showed us last year that momentum is enough to carry you to a championship... Well, momentum and Kemba Walker.
• Vanderbilt - 5 seed - East: Read above. The Commodores ran through the SEC tournament and beat Kentucky to win it all. Similar to Louisville, Vanderbilt will look to ride that momentum and make a deep run.
  
• Indiana - 4 seed - South: The Hoosiers already beat Kentucky once this season, so they have the confidence to do it again.
• Memphis - 8 seed - West: See a few paragraphs above.

The Midwest is just pathetic and it would be amazing if it wasn't Kansas or UNC coming out of that quarter.

I'm going to try to figure out how to post a photo or link to my bracket on here. So expect that sometime tomorrow. The games tip-off at 12:15 p.m. so make sure everything is done and brackets are ready to go way before that so you're not sweating to beat the clock.

Enjoy the first day of games and I'm sure I'll be back during the day to check in. A quick note, my favorite early play is Murray State -5 against Colorado State. The Racers are being completely underrated here because of their showing in the conference tournament. The Rams earned an at-large bid from the Mountain West and that's no easy feat, but I think they will be completely over-matched and the Racers should take this by double digits. CORRECT

Rodgers That

Super Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Yes, today is the day. It's Super Sunday... and I'm not talk about the Super Bowl. This is the first taste that we will get of March Madness. At 6 p.m. we will find out which schools made the NCAA tournament and what seed they earned. Below I will break down each conference and which teams I think will get a bid. The first team is the conference champion (cc) and the rest are at large bids.

America East - Vermont (conference champs)
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure (cc), Temple, Saint Louis, Xavier
ACC - Florida State (cc), UNC, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (cc)
Big 12 - Missouri (cc), Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East - Louisville (cc), Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut
Big Sky - Montana (cc)
Big South - UNC Asheville (cc)
Big Ten - Michigan State (cc), Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West - Long Beach State (cc)
CAA - VCU (cc), Drexel, George Mason
C-USA - Memphis (cc), Southern Miss
Great West - North Dakota (cc)
Horizon - Detroit (cc)
Ivy - Harvard (cc)
MAAC - Loyola Maryland (cc), Iona
Mid-American - Ohio (cc)
MEAC - Norfolk State (cc)
Missouri Valley - Creighton (cc), Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico (cc), San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
NEC - LIU Brooklyn (cc)
Ohio Valley - Murray State (cc)
Pac-12 - Colorado (cc), California
Patriot League - Lehigh (cc)
SEC - Vanderbilt (cc), Kentucky, Florida
Southern - Davidson (cc)
Southland - Lamar (cc)
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State (cc)
Summit League - South Dakota State (cc)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (cc)
West Coast - Saint Mary's (cc), Gonzaga, BYU
WAC - New Mexico State (cc), Nevada

Above is your field of 68. There has been an endless debate about who the four No. 1 overall seeds will be and that is understandable. The top two ranked teams, Kentucky and Syracuse, didn't win their conference tournaments. I still think both of those teams will be awarded a No. 1 seed. I think Missouri joins them. A lot of people think Kansas should be one, but Missouri beat Baylor in that championship game. Baylor had beaten Kansas in the semifinals. Missouri also finished second in the conference and was ranked fifth so it's not crazy. People might think I'm crazy for saying that UNC shouldn't get one, but I was between them and Michigan State. UNC had the edge and if they won their conference tournament there would be no question. However, Florida State beat them and the score doesn't tell the whole story. In my opinion, the Big Ten is better overall than the ACC and Michigan State did beat Ohio State in the final. So the four seeds, in this order, should be:

Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Michigan State

UPDATE: Obviously, as expected, the committee gave UNC the No. 1 seed and Missouri got the two. All of the other predictions for those two seeds are correct, the order is just off.

The No. 2 seeds would then be, in order:

UNC
Kansas
Ohio State
Duke

I could go through every seed but we will just wait for the selection show for that to happen. Good luck to your school if they are on the bubble, and I'll be back later with NBA picks and teams that missed out on the tournament, etc.

UPDATE:

OKAY! Now that we've found out who made it and who didn't, I'm going to bold my correct predictions from above... I'm also going to talk about who I think got screwed and who made it but didn't earn it. I'm not going to bold the conference champs because they obviously earned a seed.

Not bad: I predicted 65 correct out of a possible 68. I gave the mid-majors a bit more love than the committee did. Purdue, Alabama and West Virginia are the three that I did not predict.

(10) Purdue - Iona, Temple and Michigan are the only tournament teams that the Boilermakers beat, one is in-conference and two are mid-majors. They are 1-9 against the AP top 25 and lost by double digits six times to the ranked teams in their conference. They didn't have a strong end to the season to convince the committee and got destroyed by Ohio State in the conference tournament.

(9) Alabama - Wichita State, Purdue (see above), VCU and Georgetown are the only tournament teams that the Crimson Tide beat this season. They were 0-4 against the AP top 25 and had a mediocre season in a below average conference. Bama didn't even beat one of the other three tournament teams in their own conference.

(10) WVU - Kansas State, Georgetown and South Florida are the only tournament teams that the Mountaineers beat this season and two of those are in-conference. They were 1-7 against the AP top 25, and they lost in the second round of the Big East tournament to UConn. They also don't deserve to be that high of a seed, but the committee gave this Big East squad the benefit of the doubt.

I understand that none of the mid-majors I selected to make the tournament faced an AP top 25 team and that their SOS might not have been great. However, the CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences and last season had four teams make it, including one in the Final four. Drexel and Nevada both ended the regular season at the top of their conference and all three teams had 24 or more wins.

Snubs are unfortunate but at leas the tournament got 65 of the 68 correct.

Rodgers That

NCAAB Must Love Me

By Dan Rodgers

WOW! Yesterday was awesome and I was fortunate to be on the winning side of two close covers. The Pitt game early and the Toledo game late. I don't have too much time right now, and I will post more in depth later, but I wanted to post this sweetheart teaser I like for the early games.

8-point teaser:

Iowa +9.5 vs. Illinois = I know the only game between these two was an 11-point win for Illinois, but that was in Illinois and this is the conference tournament. Mediocre teams usually get up to play in their conference tournament and that's what makes college basketball so great. This should be a close one down to the wire and I think Iowa wins outright. CORRECT - I was right about the easy cover and outright win...

Wake Forest +12.5 vs. Maryland = This one is simple; they played once during the regular season and that was a six-point Maryland win at home. Both teams suck so this shouldn't be a blowout. INCORRECT - Seriously... why does Maryland have to play their best game of the season when I pick against them?

UConn +15 vs. Syracuse = UConn is so experienced and they had a hell of a comeback yesterday. This is just what they do and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset right here. They definitely shouldn't get blown out in a game that could decide their NCAA tournament fate. CORRECT - easy money... UConn should have won outright

I gotta run real quick so I just wanted to post that I like Marquette -3 the most during the 7 o'clocks. I will be back on to post about some late games that I like and about the teaser above.

I'll be back with more later!

I'm going to give my squeeze on a few late games. Unfortunately, every time Marquette gets back in the game they fall behind by 10 again. Pathetic game by Jae Crowder...

Toledo +11 vs. Ohio = This line couldn't be more puzzling... Toledo has won three in a row including their first round game against Central Michigan. Ohio has had an excellent season (24-7) but lost their only regular season game against Toledo by four. I just don't see a 15-point turnaround so I'll take my chances and ride the Toledo Rockets. CORRECT - WOW!

Georgia vs. Mississippi State -5 = Even though the Bulldogs (GA) beat the Bulldogs (MS) by two in overtime in their only regular season matchup, Georgia has no chance of making the tournament except for an unlikely conference tournament championship. Mississippi State is still alive and could use a few convincing wins in the conference tourney to pad their resume. INCORRECT - Apparently Miss St doesn't care...

Rodgers That

Tourney Time

By Dan Rodgers

I want to wish a Happy St. Patrick's Day to everyone. I hope you enjoy it, as well as day one of the NCAA tournament.

The last time I tried to post my bracket it didn't work, but I'll keep trying to get it up here.

I have an all one-seed Final Four...which I am not happy about at all. I think the selection crew might have done something right because all four one seeds look to be the best in their respective region. I have Ohio State beating Kansas in the finals.

I want to mix it up but I just can't do it. Pittsburgh is the weakest one seed but they're in the easiest region. BYU and Florida both got overrated in the seeds, and Kansas State and Wisconsin just aren't that good.

Ohio State looks to be the best team in the tournament so they should make it even though they have a tougher bracket with Syracuse, UNC and Kentucky. Kansas is similar to Pittsburgh, in fact, the entire right side of the bracket is just cake. Notre Dame is good but not that good, and the same goes for Purdue and Louisville. Kansas is just clearly the best team.

Duke's situation is interesting because their two seed, San Diego State, might not be that strong but they also have Texas and UConn in their region. Still, I like Duke to emerge now that Kyrie Irving is supposed to play at some point.

I am trying to find the upset, but this year it seems to be tougher than past years. My two biggest upets, call me crazy, are Penn State and Michigan State both making the Sweet Sixteen. Penn State plays great defense and doesn't turn the ball over. They have Temple in the first round and then most likely San Diego State in the second round.

Michigan State has so much talent and such a phenomenal coach that gets the best from his players come March. I think if Izzo's boys can get past UCLA, they will give two-seed Florida a run for their money (assuming Florida beats UCSB).

Besides that, I have only first round upsets, like Gonzaga, Mizzouri, Marquette and all nine seeds except ODU. I am having a tough time with the Georgetown/VCU game. I didn't expect VCU to dominate USC like they did, and Georgetown's Chris Wright is coming back from injury.

Pitt is the only one seed to play today, but there are 15 other games going on starting with Clemson and West Virginia in an hour. Enjoy the madness, and have a good St. Patty's Day...if you're old enough.

Rodgers That

Final Four Tourney Talk

By Dr. Jekyll,

With the nets cut down and Tom Izzo reaffirming his place among the best coaches of all time (not to mention Coach K), it’s time to take a look at this year’s final four, probably the most random bunch of participants in years.

Let’s start at the top, or at least, the top team left (numerically anyway). Mike Krzyzewski has proven once again to be a coaching genius, leading a relatively weak team into the Final Four. Duke haters (myself included) can point to the really easy bracket they had compared to their counterpart one seeds, but ultimately, they’re here. Duke’s a streaky 3-point shooting team behind Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith (who put up a career high in points in the regional round), and if any of them catch fire in the remaining games they’ll be tough to beat.
The first task at toppling the Blue Devils falls on the long arms of West Virginia’s defenders. The 1-3-1 defense that I can’t even pretend to understand that the Mountaineers employ has been devastating this tournament, let alone this season. In their dismembering of Kentucky, they held the Wildcats to open 0 for 20 behind the ark. Take a second to soak that in. The Mountaineers held a fantastic team hit-less for three, and they’re going up against one of the strongest three point shooting teams in the country. Sounds like a battle of offense vs. defense in this one. I really can’t see them holding down so many proficient scorers two games in a row. Playing their best basketball at the right time is helpful, but it may not be enough for the Mountaineers to upend Duke.

The other match-up heading into the weekend is interesting, if for nothing else we are guaranteed to see a 5 seed in the championship game. The aforementioned Izzo lucked out to no degree in his ability to maneuver what is one of his weaker squads to a Final Four appearance. Losing Kalin Lucas hasn’t seemed to hinder the Spartans thus far, and more so than last year against UNC there isn’t any absolutely dominant team to keep Michigan from the title. Butler, on the other hand, is just happy to be here. Playing in front of a friendly crowd is helpful, and let’s not forget this team put the kibosh on both Syracuse and Kansas State. As scary as it may seem, Butler has a legitimate chance at a National Title in their first Final Four appearance ever. It’ll take another near perfect performance from the Bulldogs to push a game deeper into the tournament. With no real star players left to take over games, this looks to be a close game until the end.

With just days left in one of the most exciting tournaments in recent memory, with brackets busted at every turn, it’s only fitting we may see so many story lines unfold. Two of the best coaches in College basketball look towards adding another fond memory, while out of nowhere Butler and defense dominating West Virginia try and win their first titles in school history. With March almost over, make sure you don’t miss the madness.

Mid-Season NCAA Hoops Review

By Toddy P.

I was watching the Purdue at Mich St. game last night, and really thought about how this year in college basketball differs from any other? What are the new trends we are beginning to see? Why is it that teams such as New Mexico and UNLV are climbing up in the top 25 yet the current National Champion, UNC, is under .500 in the ACC?

First, let's take a look at a couple of teams that are no where near what was expected.

UNC:
They started off this season unimpressive but still not terrible. Up until the New Year, this team had only suffered three losses, all of which were against ranked opponents (Syracuse, Kentuckty, and Texas). The major turning point moment of their season was the overtime loss to the College of Charleston. This was their last game before conference play and they have since gone 2-6 in the ACC. Tonight's game against Duke may be the only chance the Tarheels have to turn their season around. Even if UNC pulls off the "W" they would still need to make a run in the ACC tournament to make a good argument for them to deserve a tournament bid. My advice: Forget this season ever happened and rebuild. It's very difficult to hold onto greatness when you lose three top caliber seniors, Hansborough, Lawson and Green. No shot this year, better luck next.

Vanderbilt:
I am more than happy to see the Commodores playing at this level. They have chocked the SEC and are preparing for a great shot to make a run in the tournament. It's all about who gets hot at the right time and there are not many teams as hot as Vanderbilt. The key victories of their season have been the two victories over Tennessee. They have won by a combined 28 points and have used these two games to launch themselves into the top 25. The big test for this team still remains. On Feb. 20, Kentucky comes to town. Vandy needs to come into this game with confidence and quickness. Hit Kentucky in the mouth early and often and you can get ready for a big run in the NCAA tourny.

What makes this year different?
The term upset has taken on a different meaning. By this, I meant aht the field is starting to even out. Most conferences are now fairly close from top to bottom in talent. When March Madness rolls around, look for the seeding to matter far less than ever before. A 12 seed over a five will seem like nothign this year. I am going all out and will say that this year will be the first that a 16 seed will overtake a one. Call me crazy but you heard it here first.

New Trends.
Consistency is lacking. The reason this is that too many teams are now depending on one or two players to carry them. Teams are beginning to shoot the three more and more causing games to depend entirely on shooting percentage. The few teams that are good all around and deep are going to be the ones left standing in the end. To all those other teams, do me a favor and go back to the fundamentals. Scottie Reynolds - learn to pass the ball. I blame the loss to Georgetown entirely on you and your uncanny ability to hand the ball off to the other team. Take fewer and better shots and give your teammates a chance. The other trend I am starting to see is also a fundamental error. Focus on foul shots. I have never seen anything like this. So many teams are losing games because they are shooting below 65 percent from the free throw line. This has a lot to do with why tournament upsets will be in extreme abundance this year.

If you haven't noticed yet, NCAA baketball has been turned on its head and will not fix itself anytime soon. Look forward to the most exciting tournament in years.

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