By Dan Rodgers
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I'm a contributing writer on an up-and-coming sports media site, and the one I'm with is NYSportsNut.com.
I finally contributed another piece now that I've actually moved to Pennsylvania and the craziness is starting to subside a bit.
The Yankees made a move to get Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. They didn't give up much and here's the link to my article.
Yankees Acquire 10-time All-Star Ichiro
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
We're approximately 10 games into the Major League Baseball season and we have already seen a few surprising teams stand out. Below you'll find my predictions for final standings. I'm not doing playoff predictions just yet, but I'll include potential MVP/Cy Young candidates.
AL East
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Likely MVP candidates (not in any order):
AL - 2B Robinson Cano, NYY; CF Curtis Granderson, NYY; 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET
NL - CF Matt Kemp, LAD; RF Justin Upton, ARI; LF Ryan Braun, MIL
Dark Horse candidates:
AL - CF Josh Hamilton, TEX; 3B Evan Longoria, TAM
NL - 3B David Wright, NYM; SP Roy Halladay, PHI
Check back later for Cy Young candidates...
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
I'll still be posting here, but I am also contributing to a new site: NY Sports Nut.
They are an up-and-coming sports media company and also have sites for other cities and are developing more.
Check out my first article, Knicks Can Win Without Lin.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
We are sitting at halftime of the Kentucky vs. Kansas NCAA national championship game. Kentucky completely dominated the first half, primarily because of their efficient shooting (53.3%); however, somehow Kansas was only down by 14.
I still believe that Kansas can come back. They play tough defense and love to pound the ball inside. The Wildcats probably won't shoot with such efficiency for the rest of the game, and Kansas will look to get a few Kentucky players into foul trouble.
Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey will be key in the second half. They will need to control the paint, both offensively and defensively. Anthony Davis is having an awful game offensively, going 0-8 thus far. This is not a very good showing for him considering this is his last game before the draft.
Kansas has just hit a three and then an and-one... so this is going to be their last chance at a final push. They are down nine with just over four minutes to go... ENJOY!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
I want to give a quick opinion on a few of the more notable trades that were pulled off in the NBA:
Wizards get: Nene, Brian Cook, future 2nd rounder
Clippers get: Nick Young
Nuggets get: JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf
This trade puzzled me because I'm not quite sure what the Wiz had in mind. They gave LA a young scorer to help replace Billups. They helped the Nuggets get younger and more athletic at the forward/center position. The Wizards got a quality veteran center, but they aren't in a win-now mode. Good move for LA/Denver, we will have to wait and see for Washington.
The Lakers situation is complicated because they pulled one trade to acquire Ramon Sessions and one to get rid of Derek Fisher. The Lakers didn't give up much in the trades talent-wise, but they did give up lottery protected first round picks. Still, Fisher is old and was a defensive liability. Sessions gives them more athleticism on both ends of the floor.
Warriors get: Andrew Bogut, Stephen Jackson
Bucks get: Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown, Ekpe Udoh
If Bogut can stay healthy, the Warriors will greatly benefit from this deal. They have a ton of scorers and could afford to deal Ellis. Bogut will solidify the defense in the paint and allow David Lee to play the four all the time. The Bucks dealt their injury-prone center for a scorer to complement Brandon Jennings. I think the deal is much safer for the Bucks but fairly even all-around.
Rockets get: Marcus Camby
Blazers get: Hasheem Thabeet, Johnny Flynn, 2012 second round pick
This deal presents incredible upside for the Blazers. They traded a 38-year-old center for a 25-year-old center and a 23-year-old guard, both of whom showed flashes of greatness in college. Thabeet hasn't been too much of an opportunity so he isn't a bust yet. Flynn averaged over 13 ppg and 4 apg as a rookie and hasn't been given a fair chance since then. Not to mention, who knows about the draft pick. Houston is clearly in a win-now mode, while Portland probably thinks they can win now and get younger at the same time. I think Houston might have been trade-raped... but only time will tell.
Picks:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers -9 = The 76ers get Andre Iguodala back tonight and Spencer Hawes is returning to form since returning from injury. The Cavs aren't a very good team and have lost three in a row. Starting center Anderson Varejao is still out with an injury and Jamison will be playing hurt. Philly hasn't been as good since their hot start, and needs to get these important home wins over bad teams as they are in a tight division race with the Celtics. I think Philly blows out the Cavs tonight as the Sixers have the youth to run with the Cavs and the experience to outlast them and pull away.
Minnesota Timber Wolves @ Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 = The Grizz have beaten the Wolves at home nine out of the last 10 times, including six in a row. Memphis lost the first three game of their road trip before posting an impressive win at the Lakers. They should carry that momentum back home as Minnesota will be without their starting center Pekovic and likely J.J. Barea as well. They will also obviously be without Ricky Rubio who is out for the season with a torn ACL. I think that Memphis found their stroke against LA and should go to work offensively against a Minnesota team that has allowed at least 100 points in four out of their last five games.
Enjoy the NIT games as well...
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
The NCAA has been thoroughly entertaining thus far. Most of the games have been competitive and that is what most people want. However, I have a bracket, and even though my champion has been long gone, I can still tie for first place. If you go back and look at my bracket, I have Missouri beating Louisville in the Elite 8. If only I had chosen Louisville instead...haha.
I was working all day yesterday, so I didn't have time to post my picks, but I did like Louisville to win outright, and I already have Ohio State in my Final Four so clearly I liked them as well. Today we had Kentucky do work against Baylor, so I have another Final Four team correct. UNC is the other team (I have them in the championship), and they are tied with Kansas at halftime.
Anyway, on to the NBA...
Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks -1 = This is an interesting game. Utah is not a good road team and Atlanta is a good team even though they haven't been playing great. They are at home and there is no reason they shouldn't win outright. The Hawks have won three in a row and just seem to do enough to win the game. Meanwhile, even with wins in their last two road games, Utah is a terrible 7-16 on the road this season. CORRECT - it took four overtimes to get it done, but the Hawks did as expected.
Memphis Grizzlies @ L.A. Lakers -6.5 = The Lakers are 20-3 at home this season. The Lakers have won seven of their last 10. Kobe Bryant is the best scorer in the NBA (28.5 ppg). The Grizzlies have lost three in a row. The Grizzlies are 9-14 on the road this season. The Grizzlies lost last night in the same building to the Clippers by 16. These are all of the statistics I have come up with to enforce my decision of picking the Lakers tonight. INCORRECT - The Lakers played crap defense the entire night and Kobe got benched even though he had a solid shooting night.
Enjoy tonight's games. The Heat play in Oklahoma City tonight and it should be a great game.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Well, last night was unfortunate. Tonight, I'm not feeling the Sweet 16 match-ups so much as a few NBA games. I'm just going to enjoy March Madness and leave the games tonight alone.
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers -3.5 = This spread is WAY off. The Pacers were down over 20 points last night in Washington and fought back for the outright win. They come back home tonight and face a Suns team that isn't playing poorly but has lost two straight and struggles on the road. The Pacers should rebound from their off-night yesterday and put together a complete game that should lead to them scoring well over 100 points. Go big on Indiana tonight. INCORRECT - Apparently, Indiana didn't feel like playing defense last night. They should be embarrassed by that loss and giving up those points to a far inferior team.
Minnesota Timber Wolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 = The T-wolves haven't been playing very good defense, and I fully expect the Thunder to take advantage of that. Oklahoma City has scored over 100 points in four of their last five games while Minnesota has given up over 110 in three of their last five. This is just a game between two teams where one team is clearly the better team. I don't see any way Minnesota has the offense to keep up with an Oklahoma City team that tries to play defense. INCORRECT - Basically the same thing as written above, but the Thunder were able to win. Minnesota scored 140 points (in double OT, 116 in regulation). Kevin Love scored 51 points, including seven threes. He is clearly their best player and the one player OKC should have keyed in on him.
The last is another 8-point sweetheart teaser:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic -1 = Once again we have the Cavs on the road against a team that is better than them. This is the same scenario and I wouldn't be surprised if Orlando covered the original nine, but we will play it safe and take them to one. CORRECT
Miami Heat -.5 @ Detroit Pistons = I got the Pistons game wrong the other night and they threw everything they had at Denver. Now they come home, most likely completely deflated because they lost at the end to the Nuggets. Miami will probably win be 20, but once again we will play it safe and make it so they only have to win. CORRECT
New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks +1 = The Hawks came through the other night when we needed them to so we will go with them again. The Nets struggle on the road, and Atlanta can even lose this game by one. The Hawks need to get their act together and play consistently if they want to put up a fight in the playoffs. CORRECT
The Knicks go into Toronto tonight looking to go 6-0 under interim head coach Mike Woodson. I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks took care of business again tonight because they are clearly a more talented team than the Raptors. Hopefully they can keep this good defensive play going and get some confidence going into the playoffs. INCORRECT - Of course, the one night I write about the Knicks they get destroyed...
Enjoy the Sweet 16 and the NBA action tonight. I've got Baylor, UNC, Kentucky and Kansas advancing in my bracket.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
UPDATE: Not a very sweet night thus far. Look below for last second thoughts on each game.
Even though countless people had their brackets busted in the round of 64 with the losses of Missouri (my champion) and Duke, they might not be eliminated from the pools. I know that in my pool I can still tie for first if everything goes perfectly. So tonight could be the final make or break for your bracket, especially if you picked a No. 1 seed to go down tonight. My picks below:
(4) Wisconsin vs. (1) Syracuse -3 = I don't know about you but Syracuse showed me a lot in their last game. They struggled mightily in their match-up with UNC-A, but the Orange really responded with a convincing win over Kansas State. I thought KSU was going to really give Syracuse all they could handle, and while it was a one-point game at the half, Syracuse pulled away in the second half. KSU did what I expected in dominating the boards and especially the offensive glass (22-8 advantage); however, Syracuse shot very efficiently and played solid defense holding the Wildcats to just over 31% shooting. I think that this will be more of a scorefest than people probably think. I think people (me) underestimated the talent on Syracuse and maybe they can still make a deep run without Fab Melo. INCORRECT - The Orange played a solid game against a good defensive team. However, they got outscored in the second half after having a 6-point halftime lead. Wisconsin made 14 threes! That is unbelievable. They shot almost 10% better from three than overall. Not to mention, Syracuse missed the front end of a 1-and-1 at the end that could have led to a push.
(4) Louisville +5.5 vs. (1) Michigan State = This should be an excellent game. For my bracket, this is the most important game of the night. I am one of the few people in my pool who has the Cardinals over the Spartans. I can't help but be reminded of the run UConn made in last year's tournament when I think of Louisville. Obviously, they both came out of the Big East. Louisville is playing great defense, they've held their first two opponents to under 40% shooting and forced double-digit turnovers. The Billikens gave the Spartans all they could handle and they had a poor shooting night. If Louisville can be efficient and play their usually tough defense, I don't see any reason why the Cardinals can't win this game outright. CORRECT - well, Louisville won outright just like I needed them to for my pool. This game was just about the only positive for me the whole night.
(6) Cincinnati +7.5 vs. (2) Ohio State = I do have OSU winning this game outright, but I can't believe how high this line is. Cincy played extremely well and pulled the upset last week against a very tough Florida State team. Given the tough defense that the Bearcats have been playing (haven't given up 60 points or more in their last three games), it should be a good match-up with a Buckeyes squad that averages 75 points-per-game. Cincinnati's Yancy Gates should be able to match-up with Sullinger in the paint, and I fully expect Cincy to key in on Buford. If they want a shot in this game, they will need to make sure they don't get killed by the three-pointer. INCORRECT - After Cincy took a four-point lead, I didn't think there was any way they would get outscored by more than 12 the rest of the way. They had all of the momentum, but they couldn't stop fouling and turning the ball over. What a disaster/terrible defensive effort...
(7) Florida vs. (3) Marquette -2 = The reason I liked Missouri to make it out of their bracket is because of their likely match-ups. They would have faced these teams. Florida is very similar to Missouri and Marquette likes to play to their opponent. Luckily for the Golden Eagles, Florida doesn't have many experienced big men. When Marquette faced BYU it was a scorefest, and they adjusted to a more defensive game when they played Murray State. I fully expect this to be a high scoring game, and I just think Marquette has more experience and talent. INCORRECT - The Golden Eagles shot under 30% from three and 30% from the field. Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom both had 5-15 shooting nights, and you can't expect to win when both of your top players struggle.
This should be an excellent night of games so try to enjoy it. This is clearly where everyone's attention will be, and there isn't much I like in the NBA tonight anyway. Hope your bracket stays intact.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
There are a few NBA games going on tonight that I've taken an interest in. Hopefully, you stopped by yesterday and saw both of my winners.
Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets -8.5 = One thing I've learned is that home teams tend to cover a lot more than road teams. In this case, we've got a good team playing at home against a bad team. Not to mention the Nuggets are getting Wilson Chandler back, and he should provide a spark for the team. You all should know how much I think the Pistons suck, and even though they aren't as bad as Washington, Charlotte and New Orleans, I don't see them keeping it close. INCORRECT - sorry I can't predict Ben Gordon dropping 45 points and shooting 9/9 from three.
I'm going to shoot for another sweetheart 8-point teaser:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks +.5 = There is no reason for the Hawks to lose at home to the Cavs. They are clearly the better team and this game just fit perfectly in the sweetheart. CORRECT
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic -.5 = This game fits in perfectly as well. The Suns just gave everything they had last night to beat the Heat and somehow blew the lead. The Magic should come out looking to have a good offensive game since they got embarrassed last night and they should take care of business tonight at home. CORRECT
Chicago Bulls +.5 @ Toronto Raptors = This is another game that just fit perfectly. The Bulls are the far superior team and there is no reason for them to not beat up on a weak Toronto team. CORRECT
Good luck tonight everyone.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
The Jets have officially traded for former Florida Gators savior Tim Tebow. I'm hearing that the Jets gave up a 2012 fourth and sixth round pick for Tim Tebow and a 2012 seventh round pick.
This move initially made zero sense to me. The Jets just gave Mark Sanchez a three-year extension to show their faith in him as the starting QB. Bringing in Tebow could have been done because the Jets want Sanchez to feel more pressure to perform instead of coasting because Mark Brunell was the second string QB. However, WR Jeremy Kerley played well last season as a rookie Wildcat QB.
Tebow needs to understand that he is not the starting QB of the New York Jets. He is a proven winner and leader, but he needs to understand this is Sanchez's team. One issue with this move is the impact it will have on the locker room. Sanchez is in the process of becoming the leader and needs to demand the respect of the team, and Tebow joining the team might hinder that process and cause Sanchez to lose some of the team that likes Tebow.
As I've said in the past, I do not like Tebow. I think he is a phenomenal athlete, leader and winner, but I think he is an absolutely terrible NFL QB. My opinion on this trade will be determined by how the Jets use Tebow during the season. If they want him to be a change-of-pace Wildcat QB, or they change him to be an H-back/tight end, I would be OK with the trade. I said before he was drafted that Tebow should be switched to another position to fully utilize his abilities and hopefully the Jets do that.
The biggest reason I dislike the trade right now is because of the issues the media will bring throughout the season. If Sanchez gets hurt, or struggles early in the season, the media and all of Tebow's followers will be calling for him to start like they did in Denver. The media could be the primary reason that this trade doesn't work out.
If Sanchez can live up to the hype and respond to the pressure by winning and the Jets use Tebow correctly, this COULD work out OK. But I have my doubts...
Not to mention, in my opinion Sean Payton getting suspended for the entire season, among the other punishments that the Saints got, is way bigger news than Tebow to the Jets.
Only time will tell if this trade isn't a bust, but all I know is that I wish the Jets were on HBO's Hard Knocks this summer.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Sorry for not posting for a few days, I was out of town... hopefully you did OK without me. Since the NCAA tournament is only Thursday through Sunday, the in between days are slow. Below you'll find my thoughts on a few games tonight.
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers -3.5 = This game puzzles me. Lob City is coming off a game in which they barely beat the Pistons in overtime, and their offense is struggling mightily. The Pacers had back-to-back losses to the apparently surging Knicks, but they beat Philly before that. They aren't struggling to score point and shouldn't have any issue against this Clippers squad. Indiana matches up well as they have bigs inside and capable shooters on the outside; however, LA does have Chris Paul and that could pose problems if the Pacers match him against Darren Collison. I still think the Pacers have no problem and win this one big. CORRECT - we coasted to an easy victory in this one...
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets +3 = This is another very confusing line. The Rockets are a very good home team, while the Lakers have really struggled on the road this season, especially in comparison to the past. The Rockets have lost two in a row, but both were on the road. The Lakers had won five in a row before a home letdown to the Jazz. While they haven't had issues scoring, I think that Houston's home-court advantage will be enough to cover and possibly win outright. CORRECT - the Rockets dominated the fourth quarter and were able to pull out the win.
Best of luck. Expect posts in the coming days regarding my thoughts about the NBA trades that went down and my take on the Peyton Manning situation in Denver.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Wow, that Florida State game was ridiculous. I'm definitely thankful for the Creighton comeback, and outright victory. On to the late games...
(9) Saint Louis vs. (8) Memphis -2.5 = I think the Tigers are the most under-seeded team in the NCAA tournament. They are extremely talented, they ran through their conference tournament destroying everyone and they've won their last six in a row by double digits. Saint Louis has had a nice season in the A-10, but I just don't see them keeping up with the Tigers' efficient offense. INCORRECT
(10) Xavier vs. (7) Notre Dame -2 = These teams have similar records but I don't know why the spread is so little. The Irish were the first team to knock off then undefeated Syracuse, and they play in the toughest conference in the country (Big East). Xavier has had a solid season and could definitely win this game, but I just think that Notre Dame is the better squad and should show that tonight. INCORRECT
(15) Detroit vs. (2) Kansas -13.5 = I've been staying away from the higher seeded teams so far because I haven't been able to get a solid read on any of them. A ton of underdogs have been covering so I guess that's a good thing. However, Kansas is playing well even though they didn't win their conference tournament. Detroit is flying high after winning their tournament but they just aren't a very good team. I see them being completely dominated in every aspect of the game, and Kansas will look to assert themselves as a team that has come to play. CORRECT
There are no NBA games I'm crazy about tonight, but the Orlando Magic -11.5 did catch my eye. < CORRECT - I'm unsure when I'll be able to post tomorrow as I have a family function. Enjoy the rest of the first round and the start to the second round.
Rodgers That
- By Dan Rodgers
Well, my bracket isn't anywhere near busted, but it is no longer perfect. I am tied for first in my most important bracket, having gone 14/16 yesterday. The two I had incorrect were UConn/Iowa State (8/9 match-up) and Colorado/UNLV (6/11 match-up). I'm not too disappointed because I haven't lost a Sweet 16 team, but I definitely thought that UConn would have at least shown up and UNLV would feel like they had something to prove.
Hopefully you listened to my Murray State, Gonzaga and Utah Jazz picks. Well, on to today, the final day of first round games.
The first game of the day that I like is the first game of the day -
(11) Texas vs. (6) Cincinnati -3 = I don't think Texas should have earned an at-large bid so I definitely can't pick them here. Cincinnati plays in the best conference in college basketball (Big East), and they beat Georgetown and Syracuse in the conference tournament before losing to Louisville in the championship game. Cincy plays good defense led by Yancy Gates. Two out of the three tournament teams that Texas beat were in conference (Iowa State/Kansas State), and while they hung around in some games, defense isn't exactly a strong point in the Big 12. I think Cincy pulls away and could take this one by double digits. CORRECT
(10) Virginia vs. (7) Florida -3 = This game seems to be a tale between polar opposites. Florida shoots the three very well and scores a ton. Virginia's offense isn't anywhere near as good but they play excellent defense. I think Virginia got a little bit screwed with their draw because I just don't think they can contain Florida's offense. Since the Gators are more concerned with scoring than stopping their opponent, if UVA can score, the game should at least be interesting. I think Florida advances to most likely play Missouri next round. CORRECT
(14) St. Bonaventure vs. (3) Florida State -6 = The Bonnies have the A-10 player of the years, Andrew Nicholson, on their squad but I doubt that will be enough. This is my favorite game of the early set. There is no way this line would only be six if these two teams faced off in the regular season. It appears that a lot of these lines have been a bit low and that is probably because of the "Madness" in March Madness. The Seminoles are among the hottest teams in the tournament, they're coming off their first ever ACC championship and a season in which they beat Duke and UNC twice. There is no way St. Bonaventure, a team that had to win the A-10 tournament to make it to the dance, will be able to hang with Florida State. INCORRECT - An extremely sloppy game for the Seminoles. The Bonnies shot 50% from 3-point range and the 'Noles turned it over 11 times and got out-rebounded. I'm thankful they won because of my bracket, but this game never should have been close. Florida State even pulled ahead by eight, but 3 threes in a minute and fifteen seconds and 11 points in under two minutes is unacceptable to give up when you pride yourself on being a defensive team.
I'll be back later to post my thoughts on a few late games.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Well, I'm perfect thus far with my bracket. UNC-A made it interesting against Syracuse, but the Orange came out on top. Murray State absolutely owned Colorado State as I predicted. There is nothing tonight that I like as much as I liked Murray State.
Kansas State/Southern Miss is the only game that you could have gotten wrong. The other games have included relatively high enough seeds so that you shouldn't have gotten any wrong.
Long Beach State vs. New Mexico is the game to watch right now. LBSU is up by two with a few minutes left. There is usually a 5/12 upset so this could be it. New Mexico separated themselves with some free throws at the end and won by seven.
I think Gonzaga should beat West Virginia and since that spread is only Gonzaga by one point, you aren't really risking much besides picking the Zags to win straight up. CORRECT. There should be some great games the rest of the night, so if I were you, I would just sit back and enjoy them.
However, when it comes to the NBA there is one game I like.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz -2.5 = The Jazz are 15-6 at home this season, and even though Minnesota is a solid road team, I don't think they can overcome Utah at home. Utah knows they need to stay solid and get some wins if they want to make the playoffs so they should take care of business at home like most teams. CORRECT
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
OK, finally these ridiculous play-in games are over. USF made a statement tonight and I'm sure a ton of people are erasing Temple and filling in USF in that 5/12 match-up.
First off, I am in a few bracket pools. I am in one with my fraternity, I am in one with a bunch of old friends and I'm in one big money one. With all of the information flying around, everyone has been changing their bracket like crazy since the games were announced on Selection Sunday.
I can't decide whether or not to go crazy and pick three different champions in each one or to hope on being right with my gut and picking a similar bracket in each one so if I'm right I bring home the bank. I decided that I'm going to have similar but not exactly the same schools in the Final Four and the same champion over different schools.
I am very "high" on Mizzou. I think they got robbed from a No. 1 seed and even though it appears they will have among the toughest of roads to the championship, I think they are hot enough and talented enough to get there. They play four guards so they are usually undersized compared to their opposition; however, their guards are good rebounders and very efficient shooters. They also are capable of driving and make things happen in the lane.
The main problem with bracket pools is, most likely someone has one very similar to yours. That's why the early rounds are so important. Predicting the one mid-to-low seed that makes a run could be the difference in your bracket. If you are unsure of a game, it most likely won't hurt you too badly as long as no matter who you choose would be losing next round.
I think Kentucky is the obvious and safe pick, which is why you would have to predict the Final Four and championship and champion exactly correct for a chance to win if you have Kentucky. The more common your champion, the more important the early games become. My pool has 50 members, and I'm hoping that no more than 5-8 have Missouri as their champion. I will be able to see tomorrow what the actual numbers are and can then tell you how I feel about it.
Why I think the No. 1 seeds will/could go down early...
Syracuse is now without their starting 7-footer Fab Melo. He is their main rebounder and they struggle to rebound without him as was evident during his absence earlier this season. They won't have a problem in the first round as No. 1 seeds have never lost, but Kansas State (their second-round opponent in my bracket) is a very good offensive rebounding team. I think K State could pull the huge upset, but if they don't then I highly doubt 'Cuse makes it much further than the Sweet Sixteen.
Michigan State is playing fairly well, but they have shown signs of inconsistency this season. They have a very tough road and I think might have drawn the toughest match-up of round two. Memphis is extremely hot and shooting lights out. I honestly believe they are one of the top 10 most talented teams in the tournament. They won 14 of their final 16 games, including the Conference USA championship. I'm not quite sure they can upset Michigan State but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. However, I think Michigan State's bracket is the toughest. They have Missouri as their two seed, Marquette as their three, the ever-so-hot Big East champion Louisville Cardinals as their four and we already know about Memphis. I just don't think the Spartans can survive all of those tests.
Kentucky is the clear favorite to win it all. I have them over Baylor in the Elite Eight, but I think the Bears could pull the upset... and I'll be rooting for them. I'm playing it safe with this one because I might as well get the points if the Wildcats win, but I benefit so much more if they lose because so many people will take them.
I am becoming more and more convinced with how talented UNC is and I have adjusted my bracket accordingly. I think they are a very complete team with a talented inside game coming from Tyler Zeller and of course the highly-touted Harrison Barnes. As long as they can play some defense (see Florida State games), they should make their way to the Elite Eight with relative ease as the Midwest portion seems to be the weakest quarter of the bracket.
A few teams to look out for...
The Midwest is just pathetic and it would be amazing if it wasn't Kansas or UNC coming out of that quarter.
I'm going to try to figure out how to post a photo or link to my bracket on here. So expect that sometime tomorrow. The games tip-off at 12:15 p.m. so make sure everything is done and brackets are ready to go way before that so you're not sweating to beat the clock.
Enjoy the first day of games and I'm sure I'll be back during the day to check in. A quick note, my favorite early play is Murray State -5 against Colorado State. The Racers are being completely underrated here because of their showing in the conference tournament. The Rams earned an at-large bid from the Mountain West and that's no easy feat, but I think they will be completely over-matched and the Racers should take this by double digits. CORRECT
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Just to clarify, I don't think the play-in games are the first round. I think this is the play-in round and the first round starts Thursday. Also, I think it's stupid that random 14 and 12 seeds are forced to play an extra game to get to the actual tournament, but lower seeds don't have to. If you want to have play-in games, it should be all of the 16 seeds.
There are two play-in games tonight:
16 vs. 16 - Western Kentucky and Mississippi Valley State are currently in a battle, the winner gets to honor of getting destroyed by Kentucky in the first round. Western Kentucky is the first school with a losing record to make the tournament since 2009. It doesn't really matter because No. 1 seeds are 108-0 all-time in the first round, so why bother talking about it. -- WOW! This ended up being an exciting game as Western Kentucky went on a huge run to end the game.
12 vs. 12 - Unfortunately for BYU and Iona, the winner gets to lose to Marquette in the first round. This at least should be an entertaining game to watch, and it should be very high scoring. I expect BYU to win because I think they are just the better team; however, Iona might be playing with a chip on their shoulder since many experts are saying Iona didn't deserve to get an at-large bid.
The game I like the most tonight is in the NIT (aka Not In Tournament or National Invitational Tournament).
(6) LSU @ (3) Oregon -7.5 = I think this spread is way off. The Ducks have a damn good squad. They finished tied for second (with California) in the Pac-12 and lost in the conference tournament to eventual champion Colorado by one point (a week earlier Oregon beat Colorado by nine). LSU lost four out of their last five games and they don't do anything particularly well. I've seen Oregon play and they know how to fight and I just don't think that the Tigers can stick with them.
By Dan Rodgers
I know I've been struggling in my NBA picks recently (a pathetic 3-7 in my last 10), but I feel a turnaround tonight. We don't have any college basketball tonight as the brackets are all set and the first batch of play-in games is tomorrow, as well as the NIT.
There are a few NBA games that caught my eye and here's my take on them:
Milwaukee Bucks -3 @ New Jersey Nets = I know that I've been getting killed by taking road favorites, but I think this is a rare exception. The Nets are one of two teams (Hornets) that tend to play better on the road. New Jersey only has four wins at home, while 10 have come on the road. Like just about every other NBA team, Milwaukee plays better at home, but they've won two in a row, three of four, and put up 100+ points in three straight games. Ersan Ilyasova is playing lights out for the Bucks as they try to get by without Andrew Bogut. Ilyasova had 29 points and 25 rebounds in Milwaukee's last game against New Jersey. The Nets are coming off another home loss and will be without Mehmet Okur, Brook Lopez and possibly Deron Williams. CORRECT
Charlotte Bobcats @ New Orleans Hornets -7 = I know this is a huge spread between two terrible teams. I also know that I just spoke poorly about the Hornets at home, but they are playing the Bobcats! The Hornets look to put get their third two-game winning streak of the season, while Charlotte has lost three straight (including a 27-point beat-down handed out by OKC). I don't see any reason for the Hornets to not continue to build confidence and look for Chris Kaman to have another solid game in the paint. INCORRECT - one of the worst basketball games you will have ever seen...
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs -14 = The last time I picked against the Wizards they won outright. However, they are on the road against one of the best teams in the West so I just don't see that happening. The Spurs, who will be getting Tony Parker back, look to rebound from a 120-108 loss to the Clippers and the Wizards are a good team to get your act together against. I expect a very complete game and a solid defensive effort from this veteran San Antonio team. CORRECT - WOW! What a nail-biter...
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz -6.5 = This is an interesting game because the Pistons have somehow won three in a row (all at home). The Jazz are coming off back to back road losses and find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoff race in the West. Utah is a damn good home team (14-6) and even though the Pistons are playing well, they might just be what the doctor ordered considering how terrible they are on the road (3-15). Expect a big night from Millsap who has is averaging a double-double in his last few games against Detroit. CORRECT
Enjoy the games tonight and make sure to fill out your brackets!
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Please refer to the previous post for my initial take on the selections...
The only game I've really liked today is the late game in the NBA.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 = Lob City is coming off one of their best offensive games of the season. They are starting a home stand and look to win back to back games for the first time in about a month. Golden State is coming off of an impressive win against the defending champs, but I think they hit a wall here. The Clippers match up will well with the Warriors and the last time they faced Golden State at home they won by 19. I think they coast to another easy victory.
I'll be breaking down the play-in games tomorrow and we are going to jump right into predictions.
Rodgers That
By Dan Rodgers
Yes, today is the day. It's Super Sunday... and I'm not talk about the Super Bowl. This is the first taste that we will get of March Madness. At 6 p.m. we will find out which schools made the NCAA tournament and what seed they earned. Below I will break down each conference and which teams I think will get a bid. The first team is the conference champion (cc) and the rest are at large bids.
America East - Vermont (conference champs)
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure (cc), Temple, Saint Louis, Xavier
ACC - Florida State (cc), UNC, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (cc)
Big 12 - Missouri (cc), Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East - Louisville (cc), Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut
Big Sky - Montana (cc)
Big South - UNC Asheville (cc)
Big Ten - Michigan State (cc), Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West - Long Beach State (cc)
CAA - VCU (cc), Drexel, George Mason
C-USA - Memphis (cc), Southern Miss
Great West - North Dakota (cc)
Horizon - Detroit (cc)
Ivy - Harvard (cc)
MAAC - Loyola Maryland (cc), Iona
Mid-American - Ohio (cc)
MEAC - Norfolk State (cc)
Missouri Valley - Creighton (cc), Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico (cc), San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
NEC - LIU Brooklyn (cc)
Ohio Valley - Murray State (cc)
Pac-12 - Colorado (cc), California
Patriot League - Lehigh (cc)
SEC - Vanderbilt (cc), Kentucky, Florida
Southern - Davidson (cc)
Southland - Lamar (cc)
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State (cc)
Summit League - South Dakota State (cc)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (cc)
West Coast - Saint Mary's (cc), Gonzaga, BYU
WAC - New Mexico State (cc), Nevada
Above is your field of 68. There has been an endless debate about who the four No. 1 overall seeds will be and that is understandable. The top two ranked teams, Kentucky and Syracuse, didn't win their conference tournaments. I still think both of those teams will be awarded a No. 1 seed. I think Missouri joins them. A lot of people think Kansas should be one, but Missouri beat Baylor in that championship game. Baylor had beaten Kansas in the semifinals. Missouri also finished second in the conference and was ranked fifth so it's not crazy. People might think I'm crazy for saying that UNC shouldn't get one, but I was between them and Michigan State. UNC had the edge and if they won their conference tournament there would be no question. However, Florida State beat them and the score doesn't tell the whole story. In my opinion, the Big Ten is better overall than the ACC and Michigan State did beat Ohio State in the final. So the four seeds, in this order, should be:
Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Michigan State
UPDATE: Obviously, as expected, the committee gave UNC the No. 1 seed and Missouri got the two. All of the other predictions for those two seeds are correct, the order is just off.
The No. 2 seeds would then be, in order:
UNC
Kansas
Ohio State
Duke
I could go through every seed but we will just wait for the selection show for that to happen. Good luck to your school if they are on the bubble, and I'll be back later with NBA picks and teams that missed out on the tournament, etc.
UPDATE:
OKAY! Now that we've found out who made it and who didn't, I'm going to bold my correct predictions from above... I'm also going to talk about who I think got screwed and who made it but didn't earn it. I'm not going to bold the conference champs because they obviously earned a seed.
Not bad: I predicted 65 correct out of a possible 68. I gave the mid-majors a bit more love than the committee did. Purdue, Alabama and West Virginia are the three that I did not predict.
(10) Purdue - Iona, Temple and Michigan are the only tournament teams that the Boilermakers beat, one is in-conference and two are mid-majors. They are 1-9 against the AP top 25 and lost by double digits six times to the ranked teams in their conference. They didn't have a strong end to the season to convince the committee and got destroyed by Ohio State in the conference tournament.
(9) Alabama - Wichita State, Purdue (see above), VCU and Georgetown are the only tournament teams that the Crimson Tide beat this season. They were 0-4 against the AP top 25 and had a mediocre season in a below average conference. Bama didn't even beat one of the other three tournament teams in their own conference.
(10) WVU - Kansas State, Georgetown and South Florida are the only tournament teams that the Mountaineers beat this season and two of those are in-conference. They were 1-7 against the AP top 25, and they lost in the second round of the Big East tournament to UConn. They also don't deserve to be that high of a seed, but the committee gave this Big East squad the benefit of the doubt.
I understand that none of the mid-majors I selected to make the tournament faced an AP top 25 team and that their SOS might not have been great. However, the CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences and last season had four teams make it, including one in the Final four. Drexel and Nevada both ended the regular season at the top of their conference and all three teams had 24 or more wins.
Snubs are unfortunate but at leas the tournament got 65 of the 68 correct.
Rodgers That
