Are You (your bracket) Still Alive?

By Dan Rodgers

The NCAA has been thoroughly entertaining thus far. Most of the games have been competitive and that is what most people want. However, I have a bracket, and even though my champion has been long gone, I can still tie for first place. If you go back and look at my bracket, I have Missouri beating Louisville in the Elite 8. If only I had chosen Louisville instead...haha.

I was working all day yesterday, so I didn't have time to post my picks, but I did like Louisville to win outright, and I already have Ohio State in my Final Four so clearly I liked them as well. Today we had Kentucky do work against Baylor, so I have another Final Four team correct. UNC is the other team (I have them in the championship), and they are tied with Kansas at halftime.

Anyway, on to the NBA...

Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks -1 = This is an interesting game. Utah is not a good road team and Atlanta is a good team even though they haven't been playing great. They are at home and there is no reason they shouldn't win outright. The Hawks have won three in a row and just seem to do enough to win the game. Meanwhile, even with wins in their last two road games, Utah is a terrible 7-16 on the road this season. CORRECT - it took four overtimes to get it done, but the Hawks did as expected.

Memphis Grizzlies @ L.A. Lakers -6.5 = The Lakers are 20-3 at home this season. The Lakers have won seven of their last 10. Kobe Bryant is the best scorer in the NBA (28.5 ppg). The Grizzlies have lost three in a row. The Grizzlies are 9-14 on the road this season. The Grizzlies lost last night in the same building to the Clippers by 16. These are all of the statistics I have come up with to enforce my decision of picking the Lakers tonight. INCORRECT - The Lakers played crap defense the entire night and Kobe got benched even though he had a solid shooting night.

Enjoy tonight's games. The Heat play in Oklahoma City tonight and it should be a great game.

Rodgers That

The Ever So Sweet 16

By Dan Rodgers

UPDATE: Not a very sweet night thus far. Look below for last second thoughts on each game.

Even though countless people had their brackets busted in the round of 64 with the losses of Missouri (my champion) and Duke, they might not be eliminated from the pools. I know that in my pool I can still tie for first if everything goes perfectly. So tonight could be the final make or break for your bracket, especially if you picked a No. 1 seed to go down tonight. My picks below:

(4) Wisconsin vs. (1) Syracuse -3 = I don't know about you but Syracuse showed me a lot in their last game. They struggled mightily in their match-up with UNC-A, but the Orange really responded with a convincing win over Kansas State. I thought KSU was going to really give Syracuse all they could handle, and while it was a one-point game at the half, Syracuse pulled away in the second half. KSU did what I expected in dominating the boards and especially the offensive glass (22-8 advantage); however, Syracuse shot very efficiently and played solid defense holding the Wildcats to just over 31% shooting. I think that this will be more of a scorefest than people probably think. I think people (me) underestimated the talent on Syracuse and maybe they can still make a deep run without Fab Melo. INCORRECT - The Orange played a solid game against a good defensive team. However, they got outscored in the second half after having a 6-point halftime lead. Wisconsin made 14 threes! That is unbelievable. They shot almost 10% better from three than overall. Not to mention, Syracuse missed the front end of a 1-and-1 at the end that could have led to a push.

(4) Louisville +5.5 vs. (1) Michigan State = This should be an excellent game. For my bracket, this is the most important game of the night. I am one of the few people in my pool who has the Cardinals over the Spartans. I can't help but be reminded of the run UConn made in last year's tournament when I think of Louisville. Obviously, they both came out of the Big East. Louisville is playing great defense, they've held their first two opponents to under 40% shooting and forced double-digit turnovers. The Billikens gave the Spartans all they could handle and they had a poor shooting night. If Louisville can be efficient and play their usually tough defense, I don't see any reason why the Cardinals can't win this game outright. CORRECT - well, Louisville won outright just like I needed them to for my pool. This game was just about the only positive for me the whole night.

(6) Cincinnati +7.5 vs. (2) Ohio State = I do have OSU winning this game outright, but I can't believe how high this line is. Cincy played extremely well and pulled the upset last week against a very tough Florida State team. Given the tough defense that the Bearcats have been playing (haven't given up 60 points or more in their last three games), it should be a good match-up with a Buckeyes squad that averages 75 points-per-game. Cincinnati's Yancy Gates should be able to match-up with Sullinger in the paint, and I fully expect Cincy to key in on Buford. If they want a shot in this game, they will need to make sure they don't get killed by the three-pointer. INCORRECT - After Cincy took a four-point lead, I didn't think there was any way they would get outscored by more than 12 the rest of the way. They had all of the momentum, but they couldn't stop fouling and turning the ball over. What a disaster/terrible defensive effort...

(7) Florida vs. (3) Marquette -2 = The reason I liked Missouri to make it out of their bracket is because of their likely match-ups. They would have faced these teams. Florida is very similar to Missouri and Marquette likes to play to their opponent. Luckily for the Golden Eagles, Florida doesn't have many experienced big men. When Marquette faced BYU it was a scorefest, and they adjusted to a more defensive game when they played Murray State. I fully expect this to be a high scoring game, and I just think Marquette has more experience and talent. INCORRECT - The Golden Eagles shot under 30% from three and 30% from the field. Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom both had 5-15 shooting nights, and you can't expect to win when both of your top players struggle.

This should be an excellent night of games so try to enjoy it. This is clearly where everyone's attention will be, and there isn't much I like in the NBA tonight anyway. Hope your bracket stays intact.

Rodgers That

Tourney Time at last

By Dan Rodgers

OK, finally these ridiculous play-in games are over. USF made a statement tonight and I'm sure a ton of people are erasing Temple and filling in USF in that 5/12 match-up.

First off, I am in a few bracket pools. I am in one with my fraternity, I am in one with a bunch of old friends and I'm in one big money one. With all of the information flying around, everyone has been changing their bracket like crazy since the games were announced on Selection Sunday.

I can't decide whether or not to go crazy and pick three different champions in each one or to hope on being right with my gut and picking a similar bracket in each one so if I'm right I bring home the bank. I decided that I'm going to have similar but not exactly the same schools in the Final Four and the same champion over different schools.

I am very "high" on Mizzou. I think they got robbed from a No. 1 seed and even though it appears they will have among the toughest of roads to the championship, I think they are hot enough and talented enough to get there. They play four guards so they are usually undersized compared to their opposition; however, their guards are good rebounders and very efficient shooters. They also are capable of driving and make things happen in the lane.

The main problem with bracket pools is, most likely someone has one very similar to yours. That's why the early rounds are so important. Predicting the one mid-to-low seed that makes a run could be the difference in your bracket. If you are unsure of a game, it most likely won't hurt you too badly as long as no matter who you choose would be losing next round.

I think Kentucky is the obvious and safe pick, which is why you would have to predict the Final Four and championship and champion exactly correct for a chance to win if you have Kentucky. The more common your champion, the more important the early games become. My pool has 50 members, and I'm hoping that no more than 5-8 have Missouri as their champion. I will be able to see tomorrow what the actual numbers are and can then tell you how I feel about it.

Why I think the No. 1 seeds will/could go down early...

Syracuse is now without their starting 7-footer Fab Melo. He is their main rebounder and they struggle to rebound without him as was evident during his absence earlier this season. They won't have a problem in the first round as No. 1 seeds have never lost, but Kansas State (their second-round opponent in my bracket) is a very good offensive rebounding team. I think K State could pull the huge upset, but if they don't then I highly doubt 'Cuse makes it much further than the Sweet Sixteen.

Michigan State is playing fairly well, but they have shown signs of inconsistency this season. They have a very tough road and I think might have drawn the toughest match-up of round two. Memphis is extremely hot and shooting lights out. I honestly believe they are one of the top 10 most talented teams in the tournament. They won 14 of their final 16 games, including the Conference USA championship. I'm not quite sure they can upset Michigan State but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. However, I think Michigan State's bracket is the toughest. They have Missouri as their two seed, Marquette as their three, the ever-so-hot Big East champion Louisville Cardinals as their four and we already know about Memphis. I just don't think the Spartans can survive all of those tests.

Kentucky is the clear favorite to win it all. I have them over Baylor in the Elite Eight, but I think the Bears could pull the upset... and I'll be rooting for them. I'm playing it safe with this one because I might as well get the points if the Wildcats win, but I benefit so much more if they lose because so many people will take them.

I am becoming more and more convinced with how talented UNC is and I have adjusted my bracket accordingly. I think they are a very complete team with a talented inside game coming from Tyler Zeller and of course the highly-touted Harrison Barnes. As long as they can play some defense (see Florida State games), they should make their way to the Elite Eight with relative ease as the Midwest portion seems to be the weakest quarter of the bracket.

A few teams to look out for...

• Florida State - 3 seed - East: I think that the Seminoles are the second best team in their quarter behind Ohio State now that Melo is ineligible. They play incredibly tough defense and could make a deep run if their offense can continue to play well.
• Louisville - 4 seed - West: Similar to last year, Louisville has a ton of momentum after winning the Big East tournament and UConn already showed us last year that momentum is enough to carry you to a championship... Well, momentum and Kemba Walker.
• Vanderbilt - 5 seed - East: Read above. The Commodores ran through the SEC tournament and beat Kentucky to win it all. Similar to Louisville, Vanderbilt will look to ride that momentum and make a deep run.
  
• Indiana - 4 seed - South: The Hoosiers already beat Kentucky once this season, so they have the confidence to do it again.
• Memphis - 8 seed - West: See a few paragraphs above.

The Midwest is just pathetic and it would be amazing if it wasn't Kansas or UNC coming out of that quarter.

I'm going to try to figure out how to post a photo or link to my bracket on here. So expect that sometime tomorrow. The games tip-off at 12:15 p.m. so make sure everything is done and brackets are ready to go way before that so you're not sweating to beat the clock.

Enjoy the first day of games and I'm sure I'll be back during the day to check in. A quick note, my favorite early play is Murray State -5 against Colorado State. The Racers are being completely underrated here because of their showing in the conference tournament. The Rams earned an at-large bid from the Mountain West and that's no easy feat, but I think they will be completely over-matched and the Racers should take this by double digits. CORRECT

Rodgers That