MLB Predictions

By Dan Rodgers

We're approximately 10 games into the Major League Baseball season and we have already seen a few surprising teams stand out. Below you'll find my predictions for final standings. I'm not doing playoff predictions just yet, but I'll include potential MVP/Cy Young candidates.

AL East

1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
   

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers (by a landslide)
   
2. Chicago White Sox
   
3. Minnesota Twins
   
4. Cleveland Indians/Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. Texas Rangers
   
2. L.A. Angels
   
3. Oakland Athletics
   
4. Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. Washington Nationals
   
2. New York Mets
   
3. Philadelphia Phillies
   
4. Atlanta Braves
   
5. Miami Marlins
   

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
   
2. Cincinnati Reds
   
3. Milwaukee Brewers
   
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
   
5. Houston Astros
6. Chicago Cubs

NL West

1. L.A. Dodgers
   
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
   
3. Colorado Rockies
   
4. San Francisco Giants
   
5. San Diego Padres

• As you can see, there might be a few surprises in there. A lot of people picked the Phillies to even reachthe World Series, but I have doubts that their offense can keep up because of injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The pitching will really have to carry the team, which is possible, I just think they are in a good enough division for someone to overtake them.
  

• To go along with that, you might be shocked to see the Nats winning that division. They have put together a talented, yet possibly not very well-known lineup. They also have a very talented pitching staff, headlined by Stephen Strasberg. No one in the starting rotation is over 28 years old and all had an ERA under 4.00 last season. The Nats also brought in Brad Lidge and have a great young setup man in Tyler Clippard.
  

• As far as the AL East, the Yankees finally have some young pitchers that they are looking to build around. Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova should be staples in that rotation for the next 10 years and they are a great complement to C.C. Sabathia. There is no need to talk about the potent offense because we all know how consistently great they are each season.
  

• The AL Central is going to be a joke and I would be surprised if the Tigers didn't lead the division by 20-plus games at the end of the season.
  
  
• The AL West is an interesting division. It is clearly a race between the Rangers and Angels. A lot of people expect the Angels to run away with it because they added Albert Pujols and stole C.J. Wilson away from Texas. However, the Rangers still have a very dangerous offense, formidable rotation, and the addition of Joe Nathan allowed them to move Neftali Feliz, 72 saves in his first two full seasons, to his rightful place in the rotation.
  

• Even though the Cardinals lost Pujols, they still have a surprisingly good offense without him. David Freese established himself last postseason, and the addition of Carlos Beltran could be the most underrated move of the entire offseason. Unfortunately, I think losing Prince Fielder will cause the Brew Crew to slightly regress this season.
  

• The Dodgers solid pitching staff and surprisingly decent offense has them off to a great start this season. I think there is no reason they can't compete in this wide open division. San Diego is really the only team that doesn't stand a chance.

Likely MVP candidates (not in any order):
AL - 2B Robinson Cano, NYY; CF Curtis Granderson, NYY; 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET
NL - CF Matt Kemp, LAD; RF Justin Upton, ARI; LF Ryan Braun, MIL

Dark Horse candidates:
AL - CF Josh Hamilton, TEX; 3B Evan Longoria, TAM
NL - 3B David Wright, NYM; SP Roy Halladay, PHI

Check back later for Cy Young candidates...

Rodgers That

MLB MVP races

By Dan Rodgers

They haven't announced awards yet, but I'm going to offer my soon-to-be-considered expert opinion.

So, in my soon-to-be-considered expert opinion, pitchers should not be eligible for the Most Valuable Player award. The MVP award goes to the most outstanding, or valuable, player in each league. The Cy Young award is to honor the best pitcher in each league. Why should pitchers be eligible for both awards when there is no MVP-type award specifically for position players.

NOTE: The Hank Aaron Award is given to the player with the best offensive season, but was initially introduced in 1999 to commemorate the 25th anniversary of Hank Aaron surpassing Babe Ruth and becoming the home run king. I don't think of this award on the same level as the MVP or Cy Young Award.

Because of my feelings on this, I will not be including pitchers in the decision for MVP.

The National League MVP is really only between two players: Matt Kemp, OF Los Angeles Dodgers and Ryan Braun, OF Milwaukee Brewers.

Braun: .332 BA 33 HR 111 RBI 33 SB .397 OBP .597 SLG 58 BB 93 SO - 1 E
Kemp: .324 BA 39 HR 126 RBI 40 SB .399 OBP .586 SLG 74 BB 159 SO - 5 E

As you can see, they have very similar statistics. A few things stand out to me, Braun has a higher average, less strikeouts and less errors. Clearly the differences aren't much, but that combined with Braun leading his team to the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and their first division title in over a decade makes me lean in his direction. Don't get me wrong, Kemp is a great player, but I think the Dodgers finishing in third in one of baseball's less competitive divisions is going to hurt his chances.

NOTE: Given that Matt Kemp has now won the 2011 Hank Aaron Award, chances are he will not win the MVP.

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, OF Milwaukee Brewers

The American League MVP is a bit more competitive. The Yankees have two candidates (Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson), the Red Sox have two more (Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez), and the Blue Jays have one more (Jose Bautista). That's five alone in the AL East. The last candidate is Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.

Granderson: .262 BA 41 HR 119 RBI 25 SB .364 OBP .552 SLG 85 BB 169 SO - 3 E
Cano: .302 BA 28 HR 118 RBI 8 SB .349 OBP .533 SLG 38 BB 96 SO - 10 E
Ellsbury: .321 BA 32 HR 105 RBI 39 SB .376 OBP .552 SLG 52 BB 98 SO - 0 E
Gonzalez: .338 BA 27 HR 117 RBI 1 SB .410 OBP .548 SLG 74 BB 119 SO - 4 E
Bautista: .302 BA 43 HR 103 RBI 9 SB .447 OBP .608 SLG 132 BB 111 SO - 6 E
Cabrera: .344 BA 30 HR 105 RBI 2 SB .448 OBP .586 SLG 108 BB 89 SO - 13 E

As you can see, all of the candidates had phenomenal seasons. Most voters take into consideration whether or not the player's team made the playoffs and how they did. The Red Sox and Blue Jays did not make the playoffs, and Boston's historic collapse might hinder the chances of Ellsbury and Gonzalez. Cabrera and Cano both had respectable postseasons, offensively, and Granderson made a few game-saving catches that kept the Yanks in it.

NOTE: Jose Bautista won the Hank Aaron Award for the AL, and Jacoby Ellsbury was named the Comeback Player of the Year so neither of them will probably win MVP.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 1B Detroit Tigers

@dhrodgers

Rodgers That

MLB pre season peak - NL

By Dr. Jekyll

So now we move on to the National League...

NL East

Philadelphia has the best team in the league, hands down. And it’s not even that close. An absolutely lethal head of the rotation with Doc Halladay and Cole Hamels, backed up by a stud lineup. It’s almost unfair. Yet despite this, the division will probably still produce the wild card team, speaking to the strength of…

The Braves starting pitching. A top four in the rotation of Timmy Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Derek Lowe is enough to keep them competitive in every game. That, and the fact that Bobby Cox is in the last year of his contract makes them a sympathetic playoff team. Sadly, sympathy won’t get them past the Phillies, and they’re still less pathetic than…

Your New York Mets. This team has everything on paper. Again. But the injury bug hasn’t looked too kindly on this team in awhile. Will David Wright return to David Wright of old? Will Carlos Beltran live up to his potential/ contract? Will Jeff Francoeur remember how to check a swing? Will Johan Santana be able to start 160+ games? The pieces are there, but the results will be puzzling.

The fish look to be in a very similar spot to their same state AL East pals. Decent starting pitching, good young talent, and a division that is nearly impossible to win based on the level of competition surrounding them. Any other division and they compete for the title. Here, they’ll be lucky to finish outside of the basement.

Well, maybe not that lucky. The Nationals aren’t a good team. Young players to build around like Stephen Strasburg make this a fun team to watch, but they won’t contend for a playoff spot.

NL Central

This division is loaded with power hitters to the point where it’s almost not fair. So ranking them based on pure slugging seems the right way to go. And if we’re going to do that, can anyone bet against Albert Pujols? Me thinks not.

Derek Lee comes sliding into second as far as pop at first goes. Last season he put up arguably his best stats since the 2005 year when he threatened for a triple crown until August. The Cubbies aren’t particularly strong, but they’re not lacking much. Which should be enough to finish just above .500 and place in second, just ahead of…

Cincinnati. A healthy Scott Rolen makes this a solid team in the infield. And that Joey Votto kid is an all-star in the making. But there’s not enough on both sides of the ball yet.

Milwaukee will be an entertaining team to watch so long as Prince and Ryan Braun keep the ball moving, but you know your pitching is week when the number one on your roster is Yovani Gallardo.

Houston and Pittsburgh tie here as teams going in opposite directions. Houston is bottoming out, with the careers of Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman fading away. Meanwhile, Pitt looks to the future with Andrew McCutchen, but that future is at least two or three years out.

NL West

This entire division is up for grabs, with four teams legitimately talented enough to make noise come playoff time. But the one team that would be the most threatening in October baseball? The Giants. Does anyone want to see Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain? That’s what I thought.

The Dodgers offer the most serious threat to the Giants hopes of a division crown, with a very different approach to victory. As good as San Fran is at pitching, the cluster of Andre Ethier, Manny, and this soon to be perennial all-star Matt Kemp are just as good at hitting, if not better.

Colorado has Ubaldo Jiminez, who could quickly become a dark horse Cy Young candidate by the summer. If this lineup stays healthy, they could threaten the division too.

Just as Arizona can. Standing toe to toe with Timmay and Cain in San Fran are Dan Haren and Brandon Webb in the desert. A healthy return for Webb suddenly makes this lackluster team a force.

Sadly, San Diego has no such magic. Apart from Adrian Gonzalez, this team is Triple A with very little hope.

So here’s to another fantastic season of baseball, of sinking line drives, sliders in the dirt, and dominating closers. Cheers.