NFL Week 12: Games to watch

By Dan Rodgers

Okay, so my girlfriend was in town for Thanksgiving weekend and she just left so I didn't have time to do the post before the early set of games. However, the only one I would have included would be Green Bay at Atlanta and since it's early I'll still include it. Just so you know, there are quite a bit of good games this week so I'll be writing about four today.

Game 1

Green Bay at Atlanta - This is a NFC Championship preview. These two teams are the cream of the crop in the NFC and this game is going to play a huge factor in home field advantage/seeding. If Atlanta wins: commanding lead and just about a lock for the one seed. If Green Bay wins: holds tie-breaker over Atlanta and will have the same record. As for the game, Atlanta is clearly the safe pick because Matt Ryan has only lost one career game at home. I think this could be number two. Green Bay has a high-powered offense and a play-making defense, a combination (other than Saints?) that the Falcons haven't really seen this season. Look for a one possession game down until the end.

My Prediction: Green Bay (+2) 23 Atlanta 20

Game 2

Tampa Bay at Baltimore - This game is between a young, over-achieving team against an older, more experienced team. Clearly no one expected the Bucs to be 7-3 with a serious chance at the playoffs. The Ravens are tied with the Steelers for the lead in the division and currently hold the tie-breaker. I think this will be a close, low-scoring game. The Ravens should be able to pull it out because they are at home. Not much else to say about this; I would be surprised to see a sloppy game full of turnovers.

My Prediction: Tampa Bay (+7.5) 13 Baltimore 17

Game 3

Philly at Chicago - This is another game that will play a large roll in determining the NFC playoff picture. Both teams are 7-3 and have a slim lead in their division. I think Philly is just too good and Michael Vick is just playing too well for the Bears to stop him. IF they do, you can bet that Julius Peppers will play a large roll in it. I am curious to see what they do to try to contain Vick because it might a good idea to just spy him the entire game. Look for DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to make some big plays deep.

My Prediction: Philly (-3.5) 27 Chicago 20

Game 4

San Diego at Indianapolis - This is the Sunday night game and is more important than usual for both teams. Jacksonville is tied with Indy for the division, has the tie-breaker and is currently ahead of the Giants. San Diego is 5-5 and needs a win to stay pace with Oakland and KC. They have also been hot and I like them to upset the Colts and put both teams at 6-5. Looks for Rivers to tear up the Indy secondary. The Colts will have to put up a ton of points to stick with the Chargers and I think the SD defense will be able to make a play.

My Prediction: San Diego (+3) 37 Indianapolis 28

Rodgers That

Week 9: Games to watch

By Dan Rodgers

Okay, so after some time off we're bringing back some games to watch. We are passed the half way point in the season and the divisional races are getting interesting.

Game 1

Chargers at Texans - This game is huge for both teams because Houston has fallen to third in the division. The Chargers are in a bigger mess at 3-5, they are two and a half games back in a weak AFC West. The Chargers NEED this win to have a decent shot in the division, but KC and Oakland play each other so they won't fall too far back. Houston might need this game even more because Tennessee just picked up Randy Moss and Indy is well, Indy. Look for Houston to try to have a balanced offense, but they will air it out if necessary. Rivers will have a big game as usual, look for him to close in on 400 passing yards.

My Prediction: Chargers (-3) 30 Texans 24


Game 2

KC at Oakland - This is a huge divisional game. Didn't think I would be saying that at the beginning of the year. KC leads Oakland by one in the AFC West, but while KC is squeaking out close ones, the Raiders have looked very good as of recent. I like the Raiders to win and make this division even closer. Both teams will be rooting for Houston to beat SD, but need to take care of their own business. I like McFadden to have a decent game, and don't expect much from KC's passing offense.

My Prediction: Raiders (-1) 24 Chiefs 17


Game 3

Indy at Philly - For some reason the Eagles are favored by three points in this game. That technically means the spread makers feel like these teams are evenly matched. That is very interesting due to how well the Colts have been playing and the fact that the Eagles have been hurt. Vick and DeSean Jackson come back from injury today, and expect big things from them. Peyton should have his way as usual and I'm confused as to why the Colts aren't favored. I would stay away from this game because of the weird spread, but the Colts are probably the safe bet. However, one of my philosophy's is if the spread is weird in one teams direction, take the team you wouldn't typically take. Usually, I would take the Colts, since the spread is weird, the Eagles might be the pick.

My Prediction: Colts (+3)2 28 Eagles 30

Rodgers That

Elite QBs, not yet Joe

By Dan Rodgers

ESPN Analyst John Clayton came out with a list of the NFL QBs that he thinks are on the elite level, and I disagree with a lot of them. Let us break down the list and see where we stand.

AFC

• Tom Brady, New England Patriots
• Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
• Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
• Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
• Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Tom Brady, unfortunately, is a three-time Super Bowl champ. So clearly, he should be on the list. However, Joe Flacco has two years of experience on a team that is built primarily on the rushing game. This will be an important year for him because of all the weapons he now has on offense (i.e. Anquan Boldin/Donte Stallworth). Flacco is just too inexperienced to be given a crown yet, sorry bud.

No one will argue with Peyton Manning, end of story. Carson Palmer is on the edge for me because he is so talented, but he has yet to reach the next level. He hasn't done anything in the playoffs or put up 4,000 yard and 30 touchdown seasons every year, so this will be a make or break year for him. Top 10 yes, but not yet elite.

Phillip Rivers is definitely one of the best young QBs in the league, and if I had a top 10 list he would be on it. However, if I had an elite list, he wouldn't be on it. Roethlisberger has to be on it because he is a two-time Super Bowl champ. Schaub is a tough one though. I love this kid and all the amazing work he did for my fantasy football team last season, but given a few wasted seasons in Atlanta and then back to back injuries in 2008 and 2009, he has only put together one amazing season (4,700 yards and 29 TDs). If he can do it again, and again, he should be on the list but not yet.

NFC

• Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
• Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings
• Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
• Eli Manning, New York Giants
• Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
• Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
• Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Drew Brees is amazing and just continues to put down all of the critics, I absolutely love him. Favre, even though he screwed the Jets over, I can definitely admit is a great QB and most definitely elite when he is on the field. McNabb is someone you might not think about, but he only had one losing season his entire career in Philly and that should tell you something. He is a playmaker with his legs and his arm and will possibly bring some life to a dead Washington team.

Eli Manning I'm not really a fan of, but I do give him credit because he beat the Pats in the Super Bowl when people were talking about that New England team being the best of all-time. Not elite yet though...sorry. Aaron Rodgers is the man. He is a gun-slinger and reminds me of Favre. He is a playmaker and is only getting better, sitting on the bench behind Favre for a few seasons couldn't have hurt. He definitely belongs on the list.

Ever since Romo took over in Dallas he has done nothing but put up very impressive statistics, for an undrafted free agent nonetheless. The only question mark that could leave him off the list is what has he done for me lately...in the playoffs. He took it one step further last season and I think he belongs on the list because Dallas is a contender with him at QB.

Matt Ryan, see Joe Flacco.

So, in conclusion I've decided that John Clayton should be much tougher in his decisions and not just give it out to make sure the list if full. Just because a QB belongs in the top 10 doesn't mean he is elite.

Elite QBs:
AFC - Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger
NFC - Brees, Favre, McNabb, Rodgers, Romo

Top 10:
1. Manning - The Best
2. Brees - Showed he can play with and beat the best
3. Favre - Who knows how long he'll play
4. Brady - Shown can be beaten...and embarrassed
5. Roethlisberger - Gosh he is ruining his career
6. McNabb - Sucks he hasn't won a Super Bowl...and got traded to Washington
7. Rodgers - Arguably the best young QB in the league
8. Romo - Proved he can win the playoffs...kind of
9. Rivers - Can't take over a game...yet
10. Palmer - This is his year...or he could be done

Rising: Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers

Falling: Favre, Brady, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Palmer

Rodgers That

Looking ahead: NFL Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Cowboys (+2.5) at Vikings

This is an interesting game because, I can't believe it's actually true, it's playoff time and the Dallas Cowboys are red hot. Besides the Chargers I think Dallas is the hottest team in the NFL right now. Right now Tony Romo is playing very well and even Roy Williams is getting into the mix. Miles Austin is having a break out season (sucks for the Jets who chose not to sign him) and the Cowboys are using all three running backs very effectively. The defense, led by DeMarcus Ware, is playing very well as they were second in the NFL in points per game (15.6). The Vikes are winning games but not playing their best football. The defense is playing well as expected but I don't see how they can slow down the Dallas offense which is ranked in the top 10 in passing and rushing. I like Dallas to edge out the Vikes in a game that will have more offense than expected. Look for Brett the...Viking...to turn the ball over a time or two.

My prediction: Cowboys (+2.5) 27 Vikings 20

Jets (+7) at Chargers

The Jets come into this game winning six out of their last seven, impressive right? Well, it would be if the team they were facing hadn't closed out the season winning their last 11 in a row. The Chargers momentum might have been slowed due to the bye week, but that doens't mean that they aren't playing great football. They are my AFC Super Bowl pick. Unfortunately that means they will have to go through my Jets which is going to be devasting for me. I can be realistic though and and see right now that the Chargers are the better team. However, don't be surprised to see my Jets put up a hell of a fight because they match up so well. They play stellar pass defense which is San Diego's strong point. The Chargers aren't too good at stopping the run (117.8 ypg) and the Jets lead the league in rushing with over 170 yards per game. The primary match up is going to be Phillip Rivers combined with his three targets of six foot four inches or taller against Darrelle Revis and the Jets undersized defensive backs. However, also keep an eye on Mark Sanchez and his ability to pass the ball and potentially stretch the field with Braylon Edwards.

My preciction (unfortunately): Jets (+7) 20 Chargers 24

Rodgers That