Are You (your bracket) Still Alive?

By Dan Rodgers

The NCAA has been thoroughly entertaining thus far. Most of the games have been competitive and that is what most people want. However, I have a bracket, and even though my champion has been long gone, I can still tie for first place. If you go back and look at my bracket, I have Missouri beating Louisville in the Elite 8. If only I had chosen Louisville instead...haha.

I was working all day yesterday, so I didn't have time to post my picks, but I did like Louisville to win outright, and I already have Ohio State in my Final Four so clearly I liked them as well. Today we had Kentucky do work against Baylor, so I have another Final Four team correct. UNC is the other team (I have them in the championship), and they are tied with Kansas at halftime.

Anyway, on to the NBA...

Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks -1 = This is an interesting game. Utah is not a good road team and Atlanta is a good team even though they haven't been playing great. They are at home and there is no reason they shouldn't win outright. The Hawks have won three in a row and just seem to do enough to win the game. Meanwhile, even with wins in their last two road games, Utah is a terrible 7-16 on the road this season. CORRECT - it took four overtimes to get it done, but the Hawks did as expected.

Memphis Grizzlies @ L.A. Lakers -6.5 = The Lakers are 20-3 at home this season. The Lakers have won seven of their last 10. Kobe Bryant is the best scorer in the NBA (28.5 ppg). The Grizzlies have lost three in a row. The Grizzlies are 9-14 on the road this season. The Grizzlies lost last night in the same building to the Clippers by 16. These are all of the statistics I have come up with to enforce my decision of picking the Lakers tonight. INCORRECT - The Lakers played crap defense the entire night and Kobe got benched even though he had a solid shooting night.

Enjoy tonight's games. The Heat play in Oklahoma City tonight and it should be a great game.

Rodgers That

My Bracket

Here is my primary brackets, let me know what you're thinking...

Tourney Time at last

By Dan Rodgers

OK, finally these ridiculous play-in games are over. USF made a statement tonight and I'm sure a ton of people are erasing Temple and filling in USF in that 5/12 match-up.

First off, I am in a few bracket pools. I am in one with my fraternity, I am in one with a bunch of old friends and I'm in one big money one. With all of the information flying around, everyone has been changing their bracket like crazy since the games were announced on Selection Sunday.

I can't decide whether or not to go crazy and pick three different champions in each one or to hope on being right with my gut and picking a similar bracket in each one so if I'm right I bring home the bank. I decided that I'm going to have similar but not exactly the same schools in the Final Four and the same champion over different schools.

I am very "high" on Mizzou. I think they got robbed from a No. 1 seed and even though it appears they will have among the toughest of roads to the championship, I think they are hot enough and talented enough to get there. They play four guards so they are usually undersized compared to their opposition; however, their guards are good rebounders and very efficient shooters. They also are capable of driving and make things happen in the lane.

The main problem with bracket pools is, most likely someone has one very similar to yours. That's why the early rounds are so important. Predicting the one mid-to-low seed that makes a run could be the difference in your bracket. If you are unsure of a game, it most likely won't hurt you too badly as long as no matter who you choose would be losing next round.

I think Kentucky is the obvious and safe pick, which is why you would have to predict the Final Four and championship and champion exactly correct for a chance to win if you have Kentucky. The more common your champion, the more important the early games become. My pool has 50 members, and I'm hoping that no more than 5-8 have Missouri as their champion. I will be able to see tomorrow what the actual numbers are and can then tell you how I feel about it.

Why I think the No. 1 seeds will/could go down early...

Syracuse is now without their starting 7-footer Fab Melo. He is their main rebounder and they struggle to rebound without him as was evident during his absence earlier this season. They won't have a problem in the first round as No. 1 seeds have never lost, but Kansas State (their second-round opponent in my bracket) is a very good offensive rebounding team. I think K State could pull the huge upset, but if they don't then I highly doubt 'Cuse makes it much further than the Sweet Sixteen.

Michigan State is playing fairly well, but they have shown signs of inconsistency this season. They have a very tough road and I think might have drawn the toughest match-up of round two. Memphis is extremely hot and shooting lights out. I honestly believe they are one of the top 10 most talented teams in the tournament. They won 14 of their final 16 games, including the Conference USA championship. I'm not quite sure they can upset Michigan State but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. However, I think Michigan State's bracket is the toughest. They have Missouri as their two seed, Marquette as their three, the ever-so-hot Big East champion Louisville Cardinals as their four and we already know about Memphis. I just don't think the Spartans can survive all of those tests.

Kentucky is the clear favorite to win it all. I have them over Baylor in the Elite Eight, but I think the Bears could pull the upset... and I'll be rooting for them. I'm playing it safe with this one because I might as well get the points if the Wildcats win, but I benefit so much more if they lose because so many people will take them.

I am becoming more and more convinced with how talented UNC is and I have adjusted my bracket accordingly. I think they are a very complete team with a talented inside game coming from Tyler Zeller and of course the highly-touted Harrison Barnes. As long as they can play some defense (see Florida State games), they should make their way to the Elite Eight with relative ease as the Midwest portion seems to be the weakest quarter of the bracket.

A few teams to look out for...

• Florida State - 3 seed - East: I think that the Seminoles are the second best team in their quarter behind Ohio State now that Melo is ineligible. They play incredibly tough defense and could make a deep run if their offense can continue to play well.
• Louisville - 4 seed - West: Similar to last year, Louisville has a ton of momentum after winning the Big East tournament and UConn already showed us last year that momentum is enough to carry you to a championship... Well, momentum and Kemba Walker.
• Vanderbilt - 5 seed - East: Read above. The Commodores ran through the SEC tournament and beat Kentucky to win it all. Similar to Louisville, Vanderbilt will look to ride that momentum and make a deep run.
  
• Indiana - 4 seed - South: The Hoosiers already beat Kentucky once this season, so they have the confidence to do it again.
• Memphis - 8 seed - West: See a few paragraphs above.

The Midwest is just pathetic and it would be amazing if it wasn't Kansas or UNC coming out of that quarter.

I'm going to try to figure out how to post a photo or link to my bracket on here. So expect that sometime tomorrow. The games tip-off at 12:15 p.m. so make sure everything is done and brackets are ready to go way before that so you're not sweating to beat the clock.

Enjoy the first day of games and I'm sure I'll be back during the day to check in. A quick note, my favorite early play is Murray State -5 against Colorado State. The Racers are being completely underrated here because of their showing in the conference tournament. The Rams earned an at-large bid from the Mountain West and that's no easy feat, but I think they will be completely over-matched and the Racers should take this by double digits. CORRECT

Rodgers That

Super Sunday

By Dan Rodgers

Yes, today is the day. It's Super Sunday... and I'm not talk about the Super Bowl. This is the first taste that we will get of March Madness. At 6 p.m. we will find out which schools made the NCAA tournament and what seed they earned. Below I will break down each conference and which teams I think will get a bid. The first team is the conference champion (cc) and the rest are at large bids.

America East - Vermont (conference champs)
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure (cc), Temple, Saint Louis, Xavier
ACC - Florida State (cc), UNC, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (cc)
Big 12 - Missouri (cc), Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East - Louisville (cc), Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut
Big Sky - Montana (cc)
Big South - UNC Asheville (cc)
Big Ten - Michigan State (cc), Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West - Long Beach State (cc)
CAA - VCU (cc), Drexel, George Mason
C-USA - Memphis (cc), Southern Miss
Great West - North Dakota (cc)
Horizon - Detroit (cc)
Ivy - Harvard (cc)
MAAC - Loyola Maryland (cc), Iona
Mid-American - Ohio (cc)
MEAC - Norfolk State (cc)
Missouri Valley - Creighton (cc), Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico (cc), San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
NEC - LIU Brooklyn (cc)
Ohio Valley - Murray State (cc)
Pac-12 - Colorado (cc), California
Patriot League - Lehigh (cc)
SEC - Vanderbilt (cc), Kentucky, Florida
Southern - Davidson (cc)
Southland - Lamar (cc)
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State (cc)
Summit League - South Dakota State (cc)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (cc)
West Coast - Saint Mary's (cc), Gonzaga, BYU
WAC - New Mexico State (cc), Nevada

Above is your field of 68. There has been an endless debate about who the four No. 1 overall seeds will be and that is understandable. The top two ranked teams, Kentucky and Syracuse, didn't win their conference tournaments. I still think both of those teams will be awarded a No. 1 seed. I think Missouri joins them. A lot of people think Kansas should be one, but Missouri beat Baylor in that championship game. Baylor had beaten Kansas in the semifinals. Missouri also finished second in the conference and was ranked fifth so it's not crazy. People might think I'm crazy for saying that UNC shouldn't get one, but I was between them and Michigan State. UNC had the edge and if they won their conference tournament there would be no question. However, Florida State beat them and the score doesn't tell the whole story. In my opinion, the Big Ten is better overall than the ACC and Michigan State did beat Ohio State in the final. So the four seeds, in this order, should be:

Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Michigan State

UPDATE: Obviously, as expected, the committee gave UNC the No. 1 seed and Missouri got the two. All of the other predictions for those two seeds are correct, the order is just off.

The No. 2 seeds would then be, in order:

UNC
Kansas
Ohio State
Duke

I could go through every seed but we will just wait for the selection show for that to happen. Good luck to your school if they are on the bubble, and I'll be back later with NBA picks and teams that missed out on the tournament, etc.

UPDATE:

OKAY! Now that we've found out who made it and who didn't, I'm going to bold my correct predictions from above... I'm also going to talk about who I think got screwed and who made it but didn't earn it. I'm not going to bold the conference champs because they obviously earned a seed.

Not bad: I predicted 65 correct out of a possible 68. I gave the mid-majors a bit more love than the committee did. Purdue, Alabama and West Virginia are the three that I did not predict.

(10) Purdue - Iona, Temple and Michigan are the only tournament teams that the Boilermakers beat, one is in-conference and two are mid-majors. They are 1-9 against the AP top 25 and lost by double digits six times to the ranked teams in their conference. They didn't have a strong end to the season to convince the committee and got destroyed by Ohio State in the conference tournament.

(9) Alabama - Wichita State, Purdue (see above), VCU and Georgetown are the only tournament teams that the Crimson Tide beat this season. They were 0-4 against the AP top 25 and had a mediocre season in a below average conference. Bama didn't even beat one of the other three tournament teams in their own conference.

(10) WVU - Kansas State, Georgetown and South Florida are the only tournament teams that the Mountaineers beat this season and two of those are in-conference. They were 1-7 against the AP top 25, and they lost in the second round of the Big East tournament to UConn. They also don't deserve to be that high of a seed, but the committee gave this Big East squad the benefit of the doubt.

I understand that none of the mid-majors I selected to make the tournament faced an AP top 25 team and that their SOS might not have been great. However, the CAA is one of the best mid-major conferences and last season had four teams make it, including one in the Final four. Drexel and Nevada both ended the regular season at the top of their conference and all three teams had 24 or more wins.

Snubs are unfortunate but at leas the tournament got 65 of the 68 correct.

Rodgers That

CBB Lite

By Dan Rodgers

Today there aren't too many games, but a lot of the games are good ones. I'm going to start with Memphis. They play the smoking hot Marshall.

Marshall @ Memphis -12 = The Thundering Herd destroyed Southern Methodist and beat Tulsa in three overtimes before a convincing 9-point win over Southern Miss. A lot of people are picking Marshall because they are so hot, but I think they are going to run out of gas. I expect them to hang with the Tigers early and for Memphis to pull away in the second half. The Tigers are also hot, and playing at home. Memphis has won six in a row, all by double digits, and is shooting lights out this season (fifth in nation in FG%). CORRECT

I'll be back in a bit and post more games...

I like Ohio State, Michigan didn't play very well yesterday. The 7.5 is a bit high, but the pick would definitely be them - CORRECT. I also like Missouri (-3) over Baylor.

Colorado vs. Arizona -3.5 = The Wildcats beat the Buffaloes by 14 in the regular season. I think they are clearly the better team and couldn't believe that the line was so low. I don't have much else to say other than I think Colorado much struggle offensively. I think this is an easy win. INCORRECT

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt -6.5 = Vandy destroyed Ole Miss by 26 in the regular season. They are coming off of a 22-point win over Georgia, and I can't figure out for the life of my why this line isn't bigger. I don't see any reason why Vandy doesn't give us a repeat performance for an easy win. CORRECT

I'm going to try to hit a sweetheart teaser because the lines work so well:

NC State vs. UNC -1 = Bringing this line down to one is what makes this so damn appealing. The Wolfpack has been playing well recently but I don't see anyway they can beat UNC. The Tarheels are smoking right now and looking to leave no doubt that they deserve a No. 1 seed in the tournament. CORRECT

Massachusetts +11.5 vs. St. Bonaventure = UMass has just been playing really well the last few games and I don't see this one turning into a blowout. I'm not too well versed on these two A-10 teams, but getting 11.5 after UMass beat the Bonnies outright earlier in the season sounds good to me. CORRECT

Wisconsin +12 vs. Michigan State = I usually don't like picking against the Spartans because they are such a dangerous team. However, the Badgers have been playing incredibly well as of recent and I think their tough defense will keep them in this game. INCORRECT - The Badgers cut the lead to 11 with 20 seconds left and for some reason felt the need to foul. MSU made both to make the lead 13. Wisconsin missed a three and a layup after getting the offensive rebound... a very brutal way to lose.

I'll be back later with some NBA.

There isn't much I like in the NBA tonight, because all of the bad teams are on the road playing good teams and the spreads are huge.

Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls -11 = I know this is a big spread, but I made a play against the Jazz last night and it paid off. As I said last night, Utah is an awful road team and they lost by 13 in Philly yesterday. There is no reason for them to not be dominated again tonight by the Bulls. CORRECT

Also, I like the UNDER 197 in the OKC/Charlotte game. Charlotte has trouble scoring anyway and five of the Thunder's last seven games have gone under. INCORRECT

Rodgers That

Final Four Tourney Talk

By Dr. Jekyll,

With the nets cut down and Tom Izzo reaffirming his place among the best coaches of all time (not to mention Coach K), it’s time to take a look at this year’s final four, probably the most random bunch of participants in years.

Let’s start at the top, or at least, the top team left (numerically anyway). Mike Krzyzewski has proven once again to be a coaching genius, leading a relatively weak team into the Final Four. Duke haters (myself included) can point to the really easy bracket they had compared to their counterpart one seeds, but ultimately, they’re here. Duke’s a streaky 3-point shooting team behind Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith (who put up a career high in points in the regional round), and if any of them catch fire in the remaining games they’ll be tough to beat.
The first task at toppling the Blue Devils falls on the long arms of West Virginia’s defenders. The 1-3-1 defense that I can’t even pretend to understand that the Mountaineers employ has been devastating this tournament, let alone this season. In their dismembering of Kentucky, they held the Wildcats to open 0 for 20 behind the ark. Take a second to soak that in. The Mountaineers held a fantastic team hit-less for three, and they’re going up against one of the strongest three point shooting teams in the country. Sounds like a battle of offense vs. defense in this one. I really can’t see them holding down so many proficient scorers two games in a row. Playing their best basketball at the right time is helpful, but it may not be enough for the Mountaineers to upend Duke.

The other match-up heading into the weekend is interesting, if for nothing else we are guaranteed to see a 5 seed in the championship game. The aforementioned Izzo lucked out to no degree in his ability to maneuver what is one of his weaker squads to a Final Four appearance. Losing Kalin Lucas hasn’t seemed to hinder the Spartans thus far, and more so than last year against UNC there isn’t any absolutely dominant team to keep Michigan from the title. Butler, on the other hand, is just happy to be here. Playing in front of a friendly crowd is helpful, and let’s not forget this team put the kibosh on both Syracuse and Kansas State. As scary as it may seem, Butler has a legitimate chance at a National Title in their first Final Four appearance ever. It’ll take another near perfect performance from the Bulldogs to push a game deeper into the tournament. With no real star players left to take over games, this looks to be a close game until the end.

With just days left in one of the most exciting tournaments in recent memory, with brackets busted at every turn, it’s only fitting we may see so many story lines unfold. Two of the best coaches in College basketball look towards adding another fond memory, while out of nowhere Butler and defense dominating West Virginia try and win their first titles in school history. With March almost over, make sure you don’t miss the madness.

Mid-Season NCAA Hoops Review

By Toddy P.

I was watching the Purdue at Mich St. game last night, and really thought about how this year in college basketball differs from any other? What are the new trends we are beginning to see? Why is it that teams such as New Mexico and UNLV are climbing up in the top 25 yet the current National Champion, UNC, is under .500 in the ACC?

First, let's take a look at a couple of teams that are no where near what was expected.

UNC:
They started off this season unimpressive but still not terrible. Up until the New Year, this team had only suffered three losses, all of which were against ranked opponents (Syracuse, Kentuckty, and Texas). The major turning point moment of their season was the overtime loss to the College of Charleston. This was their last game before conference play and they have since gone 2-6 in the ACC. Tonight's game against Duke may be the only chance the Tarheels have to turn their season around. Even if UNC pulls off the "W" they would still need to make a run in the ACC tournament to make a good argument for them to deserve a tournament bid. My advice: Forget this season ever happened and rebuild. It's very difficult to hold onto greatness when you lose three top caliber seniors, Hansborough, Lawson and Green. No shot this year, better luck next.

Vanderbilt:
I am more than happy to see the Commodores playing at this level. They have chocked the SEC and are preparing for a great shot to make a run in the tournament. It's all about who gets hot at the right time and there are not many teams as hot as Vanderbilt. The key victories of their season have been the two victories over Tennessee. They have won by a combined 28 points and have used these two games to launch themselves into the top 25. The big test for this team still remains. On Feb. 20, Kentucky comes to town. Vandy needs to come into this game with confidence and quickness. Hit Kentucky in the mouth early and often and you can get ready for a big run in the NCAA tourny.

What makes this year different?
The term upset has taken on a different meaning. By this, I meant aht the field is starting to even out. Most conferences are now fairly close from top to bottom in talent. When March Madness rolls around, look for the seeding to matter far less than ever before. A 12 seed over a five will seem like nothign this year. I am going all out and will say that this year will be the first that a 16 seed will overtake a one. Call me crazy but you heard it here first.

New Trends.
Consistency is lacking. The reason this is that too many teams are now depending on one or two players to carry them. Teams are beginning to shoot the three more and more causing games to depend entirely on shooting percentage. The few teams that are good all around and deep are going to be the ones left standing in the end. To all those other teams, do me a favor and go back to the fundamentals. Scottie Reynolds - learn to pass the ball. I blame the loss to Georgetown entirely on you and your uncanny ability to hand the ball off to the other team. Take fewer and better shots and give your teammates a chance. The other trend I am starting to see is also a fundamental error. Focus on foul shots. I have never seen anything like this. So many teams are losing games because they are shooting below 65 percent from the free throw line. This has a lot to do with why tournament upsets will be in extreme abundance this year.

If you haven't noticed yet, NCAA baketball has been turned on its head and will not fix itself anytime soon. Look forward to the most exciting tournament in years.

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