Let's Hope for a Sweeter Night

By Dan Rodgers

Well, last night was unfortunate. Tonight, I'm not feeling the Sweet 16 match-ups so much as a few NBA games. I'm just going to enjoy March Madness and leave the games tonight alone.

Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers -3.5 = This spread is WAY off. The Pacers were down over 20 points last night in Washington and fought back for the outright win. They come back home tonight and face a Suns team that isn't playing poorly but has lost two straight and struggles on the road. The Pacers should rebound from their off-night yesterday and put together a complete game that should lead to them scoring well over 100 points. Go big on Indiana tonight. INCORRECT - Apparently, Indiana didn't feel like playing defense last night. They should be embarrassed by that loss and giving up those points to a far inferior team.

Minnesota Timber Wolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 = The T-wolves haven't been playing very good defense, and I fully expect the Thunder to take advantage of that. Oklahoma City has scored over 100 points in four of their last five games while Minnesota has given up over 110 in three of their last five. This is just a game between two teams where one team is clearly the better team. I don't see any way Minnesota has the offense to keep up with an Oklahoma City team that tries to play defense. INCORRECT - Basically the same thing as written above, but the Thunder were able to win. Minnesota scored 140 points (in double OT, 116 in regulation). Kevin Love scored 51 points, including seven threes. He is clearly their best player and the one player OKC should have keyed in on him.

The last is another 8-point sweetheart teaser:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic -1 = Once again we have the Cavs on the road against a team that is better than them. This is the same scenario and I wouldn't be surprised if Orlando covered the original nine, but we will play it safe and take them to one. CORRECT

Miami Heat -.5 @ Detroit Pistons = I got the Pistons game wrong the other night and they threw everything they had at Denver. Now they come home, most likely completely deflated because they lost at the end to the Nuggets. Miami will probably win be 20, but once again we will play it safe and make it so they only have to win. CORRECT

New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks +1 = The Hawks came through the other night when we needed them to so we will go with them again. The Nets struggle on the road, and Atlanta can even lose this game by one. The Hawks need to get their act together and play consistently if they want to put up a fight in the playoffs. CORRECT

The Knicks go into Toronto tonight looking to go 6-0 under interim head coach Mike Woodson. I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks took care of business again tonight because they are clearly a more talented team than the Raptors. Hopefully they can keep this good defensive play going and get some confidence going into the playoffs. INCORRECT - Of course, the one night I write about the Knicks they get destroyed...

Enjoy the Sweet 16 and the NBA action tonight. I've got Baylor, UNC, Kentucky and Kansas advancing in my bracket.

Rodgers That

Tonight's NBA Picks

By Dan Rodgers

There are a few NBA games going on tonight that I've taken an interest in. Hopefully, you stopped by yesterday and saw both of my winners.

Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets -8.5 = One thing I've learned is that home teams tend to cover a lot more than road teams. In this case, we've got a good team playing at home against a bad team. Not to mention the Nuggets are getting Wilson Chandler back, and he should provide a spark for the team. You all should know how much I think the Pistons suck, and even though they aren't as bad as Washington, Charlotte and New Orleans, I don't see them keeping it close. INCORRECT - sorry I can't predict Ben Gordon dropping 45 points and shooting 9/9 from three.

I'm going to shoot for another sweetheart 8-point teaser:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks +.5 = There is no reason for the Hawks to lose at home to the Cavs. They are clearly the better team and this game just fit perfectly in the sweetheart. CORRECT

Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic -.5 = This game fits in perfectly as well. The Suns just gave everything they had last night to beat the Heat and somehow blew the lead. The Magic should come out looking to have a good offensive game since they got embarrassed last night and they should take care of business tonight at home. CORRECT

Chicago Bulls +.5 @ Toronto Raptors = This is another game that just fit perfectly. The Bulls are the far superior team and there is no reason for them to not beat up on a weak Toronto team. CORRECT

Good luck tonight everyone.

Rodgers That

What'd we learn?

By Dan Rodgers

OK, last night was clearly an indication that I shouldn't just post a few thoughts before the games without during my usual research. On Saturday, I knew my stuff and had a fairly successful day hitting four out of five of my college basketball picks. Last night, at one point or another, every team I picked looked like they were going to cruise to an easy cover. Let's review...

The Orlando Magic defense was embarrassed last night, giving up 100 points to a Bobcats team that accomplished the feat for just the fifth time this season. Charlotte scored 13 points over their season average, and while Charlotte on average gives up 100 points per game, they only gave up 84 to a Magic team that scored nearly 10 points below their average. The difference was mainly in the fourth quarter. However, we saw spurts early on in the game. Orlando was up big in the second quarter before the Bobcats went on a 12-0 run in three minutes to end the quarter. That was a huge turning point in the game because that made the halftime deficit five instead of 17. Charlotte had taken the lead by the end of the third quarter and then Orlando's defense hit a wall in the fourth, only managing a pathetic 13 points. They were outscored by 15, which was just about the difference.

Similarly, the Lakers were up seven after the first quarter, and we all once again thought we were going to cruise to an easy victory. However, a pathetic second quarter (17pts) led to a four-point halftime deficit. However, the defense picked up the slack after half and held the Pistons to nine points in the third quarter. The Lakers were once again up seven and we all assumed they had gotten their act together. However, the offense was once again pathetic in the fourth quarter (17pts) and L.A. only managed 78 points in regulation against a Pistons squad that on average gives up just under 96 points per game. That is seriously embarrassing, but what is even worse, not only did they not get their act together for OT, they lost outright also!

Last night was crazy in the NBA because in three out of the six games the underdog won outright, making the spread off in those games by 8.5 points or more. Vegas must have loved that.

NCAAB wasn't much better... I threw you North Texas, Villanova and Valparaiso...

North Texas was up 55-42 in the second half, but then they realized that they need to blow their huge lead like everyone else, and they were outscored 32-15 the rest of the game.

Villanova was actually down four at half but left no doubt in the second half and just destroyed Rutgers by 21 (the only bright spot of the night).

After sweeping Detroit in the regular season, the Crusaders held a 31-25 lead early in the second half. However, Detroit took the lead after an 11-0 run, and while Valparaiso cut the lead to one possession, the Titans eventually pulled away for a 20-point victory and a NCAA berth.

The Big East tourney is the main attraction right now, so I'll be back later with some thoughts on the early games today.

Let's hope for a better day than yesterday!

Rodgers That

Consistency is key

By Dan Rodgers

I have class like right now and I've had class all day so this one is the definition of a quickie...

Once again, we have the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons playing tonight. Since both are at home, against the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively, we are getting value. These teams just suck wherever they play.

Orlando Magic -9 @ Charlotte Bobcats = The Bobcats have no one to matchup with Dwight Howard in the middle, and we all know that Orlando is one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA from beyond the arc. This one shouldn't even be close at halftime.

Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 @ Detroit Pistons = The Lakers are having an off season compared to their track record, but they are still among the best in the NBA with All-World guard Kobe Bryant. No reason why L.A. doesn't take this one easily against a completely over-matched Pistons squad.

Nothing tickles me too much in NCAAB, but a few picks are: Villanova, North Texas, and Valparaiso.

Enjoy the games while I'm in class!

Rodgers That

Mostly NCAAB with a Pinch of NBA

By Dan Rodgers

Tonight is a huge night in the world of college basketball. A few conference tournaments get underway or continue tonight (Atlantic Sun and WCC) and three top 25 teams play tonight, including No. 1 Kentucky. They face Georgia at home, and while they may not cover the huge spread on the game (19.5), they shouldn't have any issue retaining the No. 1 spot.

As you might know, I'm a Virginia Tech fan. They play in Clemson tonight and basically need to win out the regular season and win the ACC tournament if they want to go dancing. They've gotten screwed a lot this season and been on the short end of a ton of close games (lost 9 games by 5 or less, 5 games by one possession). I'll be rooting for them as always (6.5 underdogs tonight), but it sucks to see them so close to making the tournament every year and getting screwed.

On to my game of the night.

There is one game, from a spread viewpoint, that stands out to me: Washington -7 @ USC

USC lost in Washington by 28. I'm sorry but I don't think that USC should be getting 21 extra points just for being at home. USC is the worst team in the Pac-12 and Washington is in first. Two of Washington's three conference losses were on the road and they were to three out of the other top five teams in the conference. USC hasn't won a game in over a month, hasn't scored over 54 points in over a month, and Washington averages more than 20 more points per game than USC (74.9 - 53.3).

I honestly see no way that USC covers this and wouldn't be surprised if Washington had this covered well before halftime and cruised from there.

Washington 72 (-7) USC 49

NOTE: I'm not going to do units right now, I'm just going to make picks.

There aren't many games going on tonight in the NBA, but there is one really good one: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic

The late game on TNT (the early one is above) is Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers. That is definitely not a bad game and I think the Blazers will give Miami all they can handle. I'm not a big fan of any of these games, unlike the Lakers last night or the Pacers two nights ago (I felt the same about them as I do about Washington). So I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the games.

Rodgers That

NOTE: This is not a gambling website, nor does it promote gambling.

Magic fight back, Lakers stumble back to L.A.

By Dan Rodgers

The Orlando Magic have made the Eastern Conference finals a bit more interesting now that they've won two in a row. The series heads back to Boston with the Celtics looking to close out the series up three games to two. The Magic seemed to have found their way offensively, after struggling in the first three games and only breaking 90 points just once. They have since scored 96 points in their game four win and exploded last night with 113 points in their game five win.

I don't really have much to say until the Magic win game six. However, I do want to bring to everyone's attention that we in the sports world have already experienced a historic 3-0 comeback involving a Boston team. As a New York fan, it would be sweet revenge to witness two Boston collapses in one year. All that would make it even better, is if the Red Sox participated in it as well in October.

Boston/Orlando Game 6: Tomorrow

Okay, now on to the Western Conference finals. The Lakers seemed to dominate to the first two games, winning by 21 points in the first and 12 points in the second. However, the Suns have recorded back-to-back nine point victories to tie the series at two games apiece. The series heads back to L.A. and the Lakers all of the sudden don't seem to have an answer for Amar'e Stoudemire. Pau Gasol seems to be way too soft to take care of Amar'e, and since Andrew Bynum is still not 100% it should be interesting to see what the Lakers try to do to neutralize Stoudemire.

L.A./Phoenix Game 5: Tonight

Rodgers That

Miami Heat (4-1) at Washington Wizards (2-3)

By Dan Rodgers

It is a Wednesday night in early November and the Washington Wizards are hoping for a better season than last (19-63). Gilbert Arenas is back and healthy; however, the Wizards can’t help but get bit by the injury bug as Antawn Jamison is out for the first 10 or so games of the season. Andray Blatche is one of the temporary replacements. While Jamison is clearly the better offensive player, Blatche brings a strong defensive presence to the floor that the Wizards lack with Jamison in the lineup. Blatche is receiving starter’s minutes with Jamison out and does have some potential on the offensive side of the ball. He averages 16.0 points-per-game, setting his career high on Halloween against New Jersey putting up 30 points in a 19 point Wizards victory.

Now that we have a bit of background on the Wizards we’ll talk about the Heat game. Upon Mike and mine’s arrival in D.C. we get to out seats about 15 minutes before game time. A girl and her camera man approach us and ask to put us on the JumboTron before the game. Obviously we agree and at the conclusion of the interview the girl offers us FLOOR SEATS! Unreal, yes I know. However, after we get down to the floor with a bunch of fans cheering for us, we are lead to our seats which are located in the 100-level section. Unfortunate, yes I am aware. Well, 100-level seats are good enough and we were damn close to the action.

The Wiz got off to an extremely slow start and the Heat most definitely capitalized. Miami was up 27-8 with 3:30 left in the first quarter, but the Wizards were able to cut the 19 Miami lead to 14 at the end of the first. The second quarter was all about Washington climbing back from the early deficit. Washington showed some signs of life as the cut the lead to nine and trail by single digits at the half. The Wizards owned the third quarter as they rallied behind Arenas’ 11 points in the quarter. Somehow, the Wizards started playing defense and outscored the Heat by nine in the quarter to tie the game going into the forth.

Even though Washington showed a lot of heart coming from a large first quarter deficit, the story of this game was Dwayne Wade and not capitalizing on Miami’s mistakes. The crucial momentum shift in this game was actually with :44 remaining in the game. It was tied at 89-89 and Stevenson steals the ball and drives to the hoop. He is unable to convert but does draw a foul. He missed both free throws and then Wade went right down the court to hit the go-ahead jumper with 24.9 seconds to go. Washington is unable to tie the game on their opportunity and has to foul. That was all she wrote as Miami stole one on the road, 93-89.

Washington Stat Line:

Arenas: 32 points, 3 assists

Haywood: 16 points, 11 rebounds

Butler: 13 points, 10 rebounds

Miami Stat Line:

Wade: 40 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds

Richardson: 19 points, 9 rebounds

Haslem: 13 points, 7 rebounds

The Wizards have no chance at the playoffs this season, especially considering Mike Miller went down with a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter, if they can’t consistently produce points. Arenas can’t be the whole offense and the team is lacking in the assist department (15). This team better get their act together if they want to fight in an Eastern Conference that lacks in quality depth once you get past the big three (Orlando, Boston, Cleveland). Best of luck to them. Who knows, maybe the Wiz can get through this season without a devastating injury, oh wait, Jamison and Miller. My bad.

Rodgers That