NFL Week 5: keep it going

By Dan Rodgers

I feel like the lines this year have been tougher than in recent years. I've been picking in my pool for over four years now, and it just seems like there are a ton more close spreads this season. It doesn't seem to matter as I had an average (in my opinion) week ATS but owned SU.

I'm going to give you the disclaimer now: At some point, like everybody else, I will probably have a terrible week... Just remember, there's always next week (or next season)

KC/Ind 2.5 Indy is still terrible and KC started to score last week KC SU
Ari/Min 3 AP should go off today, I expect some points
Phi 3/Buf Philly needs this one badly, they're down but not out
Oak/Hou 5 A bit high considering Oakland as shown life, but I like Schaub at home
NO 7/Car Higher than expected considering Carolina has shown they can score, but Brees is too good
Cin/Jax PK Incredible value with Cincy here, they are 3-1 and playing a weak Jags offense, love the under
Ten/Pit 3 I know they're beat up, but only three points for Pittsburgh AT HOME...
Sea/NYG 10 Seattle has proved they can play at home, but flying across the country for an early game will be tough SURVIVOR PICK (4-0)
TB/SF 3 Don't like this game but I like WalterFootball and he likes Tampa TB SU
NYJ/NE 7 I might be a homer but I think we always try to get up for the Pats and this is a big spread for a division game- Jets offer tremendous value for the line pays +100 and SU is +290 NYJ SU
SD 4.5/Den Denver's home advantage is unlike most teams (a la Seattle) Look for the upset Denver SU
GB 7/Atl This spread is big because Atlanta blew a big lead at Seattle and Green Bay destroyed Denver, I think the Pack is a little overvalued here but they are still amazing
Chi/Det 6 Chicago likes blowing leads and Detroit likes coming back...

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Total: 37-26-1 ATS (59%) 46-18 SU (72%)

You see that right above? Jump on the bandwagon while there is still room...

SURVIVOR: To be honest, the Giants are the only viable option this week. Even if I could use a team I've already used, I would go with the Giants. Even though Seattle has been playing fairly well in their last two, both have been at home. Seattle is 0-2 ATS on the road, getting outscored 17-57. The Giants offense has been playing incredibly well and I don't think Seattle can give them enough problems on defense to threaten the cover, let alone the win. 21 of 35 have been knocked out of my pool, 14 the first week and seven between the last two weeks.

Week 5 bold prediction: We will still have at least two defeated teams (0-5)

Also, I'm going to start posting this on Friday or Saturday so you actually have time to read and possibly use this gold that I'm posting. Look for a midweek video on fantasy. I'm 4-0 in two leagues and 3-0-1 in another...

Follow me on Twitter: @dhrodgers52

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