Sunday, October 23, 2011

NFL Week 7: Bouncing back

By Dan Rodgers

Just as I suspected, last week I bounced back fairly well from my dreadful week 5. If you're not yet convinced of my talent, I'm going to try to find the numbers for my previous seasons so you can see my consistency.

NCAA: Rough week for Top 25 as seven teams went down, including four to unranked opponents and two top 10 teams. Unfortunately, I was hit by a few of those because I didn't expect Wisconsin to only play in the first and fourth quarters

Chi 1.5/TB (in London) No home team, the Bucs got up last week for New Orleans and Chicago is playing better
Was/Car 3 Should be able to take care of business at home assuming Philly showed Washington's true colors last week
SD/NYJ 1 Weird spread and movement all week, Jets play well at home
Sea/Cle 3 Seattle still sucks and is a road team...
Hou/Ten 3 Curious spread, I think Houston is just the better team
Den 1/Mia Crazy movement in this line, and rightfully so...Denver should kill them
Atl/Det 3 This line dropped but I still like Atlanta, Detroit SU
KC/Oak 4.5 Who knows what the Raiders are getting from their QB, possible upset, Oakland SU
Pit 4.5/Ari Pittsburgh should be more than 4.5 points better than Arizona, weak SB rematch
GB 12/Min Aaron Rodgers is amazing (it comes with the last name)
Stl/Dal 14 Rams are defeated, so that allows me to take Dallas here SURVIVOR (5-1)
Ind/NO 13.5 Even though Indy is defeated, I think they'll cover, wish I had the extra half point though... NO SU
Bal 10/Jax There is a time and place for EVERY rule to be broken and this is it... There is no reason for the Ravens to not win this game by 30+ points

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Total: 53-36-1 ATS 63-27 SU

I just realized I took nine out of 13 road teams to cover, that's pretty wild. Of course I'll probably go 16-1 with survivor but who cares because I screwed myself!

Anyway, this is an interested week because there are a lot of double digit spreads (4) and spreads of a field goal or less (7). I think it's about time we see some separation and the good teams rise to the top. I hate letting mediocre teams (Buffalo/Washington) hang around.

Week 7 bold prediction: The Broncos, Packers, Cowboys and Ravens all win by at least three touchdowns.

@dhrodgers52

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