Week 13 Picks

By Dan Rodgers

OK, so I was hoping to get this out earlier but the Towson game was nuts. As a Jets fan, I thought I had seen all of the possible ways of losing, but my Towson Tigers showed me something new.

Anyway, I am actually supposed to be in Virginia right now because I'm going to the Jets @ Redskins game today. I couldn't find my wallet so I couldn't leave last night, but I finally found it so I'm going to spit out my picks and then hit the road for some tailgating and football.

Ten/Buf 2.5 It's games like this you think the Titans would be favored...
KC/Chi 7 This SHOULD be a slaughter, but we saw what happened with Pittsburgh
Oak/Mia 3 You might be thinking, "Why isn't Oakland favored?" You're about to find out why
Cin/Pit 6.5 Cincy didn't play that well last week against Cleveland and I think Pittsburgh will rebound from last week's game
NYJ 3/Was Huge letdown spot for the Jets, but if they want to make their late season playoff push, they will get the job done
Atl 3/Hou Good team playing with rookie QB, look for the defense to step up big: Houston SU
Car/TB 3 Freeman is better than Newton, even if he isn't playing that way
Den/Min 1 I can't wait to see how many people took Denver in my book
Ind/NE 20 I didn't think I would ever pick a team favored by this much, but Indy takes losing to a whole new level... (SURVIVOR 9-3)
Bal 6.5/Cle I can't believe I'm picking the Ravens, on the road, against a bad team
Dal 5/Ari For some reason, everyone loves Arizona here. This is a huge game for Dallas as they can pull ahead of the Giants by two games...
Stl/SF 13 This matchup isn't even fair
GB 7/NYG This is why the Cowboys can go ahead by two games... I can't believe this line is so low considering how good Green Bay looked against Detroit, how bad NY looked, and the extra time to prepare for the Pack
Det/NO 9 I can't pick against Brees when he is as on fire as he is, the defense better step up
SD 3/Jax New owner, new coach, the team should get up for this game on MNF: JAX SU

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Total: 100-70-5 ATS 123-52 SU

You can tell that I didn't feel like actually picking a survivor, so I just went with New England...

As you can tell, the last time I had a solid week was back in Week 7. I have a good feeling about this week though.

Rodgers That

Week 12 Review, 13 Preview

By Dan Rodgers

OK, sorry this is out so late, but I can give you any number of people as proof that I had Seattle. It should also be proof that I said a few weeks ago that I was never picking Philly again.

First off, Thanksgiving started out decent and ended awfully. Even though the Pack covered with ease, my fantasy players in the game didn't accomplish much. Then, the Cowboys let the recently relentless Dolphins stick around long enough to get the cover. And at night the 49ers offense can't do anything and the Ravens only needed 16 points for the win and cover.

So I started off 1-2 ATS and 2-1 SU.

Then on Sunday, I forgot that whenever I pick the Rams, they suck... especially against the Cards. For the second time this season, the amazing Patrick Peterson had a punt return touchdown against St. Louis. This was incredibly frustrating.

Then the Jets game: they won, so I don't care...

I read the battle of Ohio game perfectly. However, due to the Browns being stupid enough to attempt a 55-yard field goal with less than two minutes left and the game tied, the Bengals almost got the push with an awesome play by AJ Green. Thankfully, he was pushed out at the 2-yardline and the Browns held Cincy to a field goal. Cleveland easily should have won the game as they outplayed Cincy the whole game, but at least I got the cover. The Houston game was easy even though Leinart got hurt and they played with their third-string quarterback. Carolina and Tennessee went back and forth, but I came out on top.

In my book, I had Atlanta at 9.5 but on here I have them at 10. That is frustrating considering the Falcons were owning Minnesota the whole game and out of no where it was a three point game. The Chicago game was just as frustrating. I don't remember Caleb Hanie sucking so much in last season's NFC championship. Of course, the Bears should have won outright but missed the cover by a point. Seattle was playing fairly well. Washington got a 50-yard bomb on third and forever. The momentum immediately shifted and Seattle was screwed.

New England and Denver were easy choices and I even got Denver SU. Pittsburgh's defense played extremely well and forced a ton of turnovers, but the offense looked really out of sync and couldn't capitalize on anything. New Orleans destroyed New York.

The covers I missed, I was fairly close and seemed to get screwed on a few instances. It was really frustrating.

Philly sucks and had to travel on a short week. Seattle is a tough place to play and Lynch absolutely owned the Philly run defense.

A few notables this week:

• The Patriots are favored by more than 20 points over the Colts, and this is only the tenth time since 1989 that a team has been a favorite of 20 or more. Favorites in the previous nine contests are 2-7 ATS. However, Indy is so unbelievably terrible I don't know if I can pick them.
  
• There are four teams favored even though they are playing a team with a better record, three of them are at home.
• 13 of the 16 games this week have a line of a touchdown or less.
• The 49ers can clinch the division this week with a win over the Rams.
• Could we have an 0-12 and 12-0 team?

A few games I think are interesting:

• I know Houston lost two quarterbacks but they are still at home. Teams that play their first game with their backup quarterback usually try to play well for them. I think they will beat Atlanta outright.
  
• I know Detroit has been struggling but I was surprised to see New Orleans favored by nine. I will definitely have to do some research that game because that is a big spread for a team in the Lions who scores a lot.
• San Francisco is coming back home and has extra rest. The defense played great against Baltimore and now they face divisional foe St. Louis. They are only favored by 13 and they should cover easy.
  
• My favorite game is Green Bay vs. New York. The Giants are clearly in their usual late-season tailspin. The Packers are still on fire and there is no reason they shouldn't win by 20, just like New Orleans did last week. For some reason, the Pack is only favored by 6.5 and I like them to cover that from the first quarter through the game.
  

I'll post my picks tomorrow before I go to the Towson vs. Lehigh game. I'm pumped for the game because it is the first meaningful game since I've been at school.

Rodgers That